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Old 12-11-2013, 11:52 AM
 
41,813 posts, read 51,230,524 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jambo101 View Post
For those thinking GW isnt happening reality is the northwest passage is free of enough ice for most of the year for the northwest passage to be considered a viable shipping route.
Arctic Meltdown Opens Fabled Northwest Passage | LiveScience
Well considering it was first navigated in 1903, was it navigable at certain times 200 years ago? 500 years ago? 1000 years ago?

 
Old 12-11-2013, 12:08 PM
 
35,308 posts, read 52,507,464 times
Reputation: 31002
The NWP has certainly been navigated on occasion in the past, difference is now its being considered as an actual sea route for commercial shipping.
 
Old 12-11-2013, 12:20 PM
 
20,502 posts, read 12,441,682 times
Reputation: 10325
Quote:
Originally Posted by jambo101 View Post
For those thinking GW isnt happening reality is the northwest passage is free of enough ice for most of the year for the northwest passage to be considered a viable shipping route.
Arctic Meltdown Opens Fabled Northwest Passage | LiveScience

Cargo ship sails through Northwest Passage and into history books - Need to know, World - Macleans.ca

Also for those relying on Limbaugh and FOX for their climate information you might want to up the quality of your resources from rightwing opinion to scientific fact.
NASA - Arctic Sea Ice Continues Decline, Hits 2nd-Lowest Level
dude we need to get you a time machine so you can get yourself back to the present.

LOL.

First of all, there has never been a time in living memory when "the northwest passage is free of enough ice for most of the year" (quote from you).

There has been a few days per year when the NWP has been opened over the last few years. the summer of 2013 actually saw quite a bounce back from the 2012 low.
 
Old 12-11-2013, 01:41 PM
 
8,115 posts, read 3,986,839 times
Reputation: 5404
Quote:
Originally Posted by jambo101 View Post
For those thinking GW isnt happening reality is the northwest passage is free of enough ice for most of the year for the northwest passage to be considered a viable shipping route.
Arctic Meltdown Opens Fabled Northwest Passage | LiveScience

Cargo ship sails through Northwest Passage and into history books - Need to know, World - Macleans.ca

Also for those relying on Limbaugh and FOX for their climate information you might want to up the quality of your resources from rightwing opinion to scientific fact.
NASA - Arctic Sea Ice Continues Decline, Hits 2nd-Lowest Level

A more relevant question: How (why) did the Holy Grail of AGW (the computer model) miss the mark so stunningly in the Arctic?
 
Old 12-11-2013, 02:36 PM
 
Location: Wasilla, Alaska
17,823 posts, read 23,523,048 times
Reputation: 6541
Quote:
Originally Posted by thecoalman View Post
You would like to discuss the Cook study instead of the Doran study then? Which one would like to discuss, pick one and we'll debate the findings as long as you can refrain from hurling insults. Are you capable of that?

As I've already pointed out the Doran study is the only one that has directly polled scientists and is so often cited.
The Doran survey is wholly unreliable, considering the 77 who responded out of the 10,257 who were asked to participate (0.75%) did so anonymously. We really do not know who actually responded. It could be some earth scientist's niece or nephew for all we know. Or it may have been just one earth scientist responding positively 75 times.

To put any stock into either study would be stupid, since neither are credible or provide an accurate assessment of the scientific community's consensus on the subject.
 
Old 12-11-2013, 02:53 PM
 
8,115 posts, read 3,986,839 times
Reputation: 5404
Quote:
Originally Posted by Glitch View Post
The Doran survey is wholly unreliable, considering the 77 who responded out of the 10,257 who were asked to participate (0.75%) did so anonymously. We really do not know who actually responded. It could be some earth scientist's niece or nephew for all we know. Or it may have been just one earth scientist responding positively 75 times.

To put any stock into either study would be stupid, since neither are credible or provide an accurate assessment of the scientific community's consensus on the subject.

Alarmists know this; but, it does not stop them from perpetuating the distortion of truth - ends always justify their means.
 
Old 12-11-2013, 07:25 PM
Status: "Token Canuck" (set 15 days ago)
 
Location: Victoria, BC.
33,625 posts, read 37,280,232 times
Reputation: 14080
Quote:
Originally Posted by Glitch View Post
The Doran survey is wholly unreliable, considering the 77 who responded out of the 10,257 who were asked to participate (0.75%) did so anonymously. We really do not know who actually responded. It could be some earth scientist's niece or nephew for all we know. Or it may have been just one earth scientist responding positively 75 times.

To put any stock into either study would be stupid, since neither are credible or provide an accurate assessment of the scientific community's consensus on the subject.
The Facts

Stewart is referring to a survey done for the American Geophysical Union in 2009 by researchers for the University of Illinois in Chicago. Peter Doran, associate professor of earth and environmental sciences, along with former graduate student Maggie Kendall Zimmerman, in 2008 sent a simple survey with nine questions to more than 10,000 experts listed in the 2007 edition of the American Geological Institute’s directory of geoscience departments.

They ended up getting responses from 3,146 scientists, and then publicized the results from two questions: (1) Have mean global temperatures risen compared to pre-1800s levels? (2) Has human activity been a significant factor in changing mean global temperatures?

The results? About 90 percent of the scientists agreed with the first question and 82 percent with the second.

So where does the 98 percent statistic come from? That’s from a subsample of the survey — climate scientists. The survey actually says the result is 97 percent, but Stewart is correct that it represented just a small group of people — 77 out of 79 people. Cherry-picking one survey to discredit a survey of scientists on climate change - The Washington Post
 
Old 12-11-2013, 07:41 PM
Status: "Token Canuck" (set 15 days ago)
 
Location: Victoria, BC.
33,625 posts, read 37,280,232 times
Reputation: 14080
How about we try to be current with these studies and stop cherry picking?

John Cook et al, 2013


Cook et al examined 11,944 abstracts from the peer-reviewed scientific literature from 1991–2011 that matched the topics 'global climate change' or 'global warming'. They found that, while 66.4% of them expressed no position on anthropogenic global warming (AGW), of those that did, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming.

Farnsworth and Lichter, 2011

In an October 2011 paper published in the International Journal of Public Opinion Research, researchers from George Mason University analyzed the results of a survey of 489 scientists working in academia, government, and industry. The scientists polled were members of the American Geophysical Union or the American Meteorological Society and listed in the 23rd edition of American Men and Women of Science, a biographical reference work on leading American scientists. Of those surveyed, 97% agreed that global temperatures have risen over the past century. Moreover, 84% agreed that "human-induced greenhouse warming" is now occurring. Only 5% disagreed with the idea that human activity is a significant cause of global warming. Surveys of scientists' views on climate change - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
 
Old 12-11-2013, 07:42 PM
 
Location: Calgary, AB
3,401 posts, read 2,293,089 times
Reputation: 1072
Quote:
Originally Posted by T-310 View Post
Your scientists have claimed this. You know it. Do your own homework. They are calling it a "pause" to keep idiots funding their jobs.

But here you go: Global warming 'pause' may last for 20 more years and Arctic sea ice has already started to recover | Mail Online
Pause? Is this the same pause the Mail falsely claimed was reported by the Met Office, or a different one?
 
Old 12-11-2013, 08:05 PM
 
Location: Palo Alto
12,149 posts, read 8,445,198 times
Reputation: 4190
Quote:
Originally Posted by sanspeur View Post
How about we try to be current with these studies and stop cherry picking?

John Cook et al, 2013


Cook et al examined 11,944 abstracts from the peer-reviewed scientific literature from 1991–2011 that matched the topics 'global climate change' or 'global warming'. They found that, while 66.4% of them expressed no position on anthropogenic global warming (AGW), of those that did, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming.

Farnsworth and Lichter, 2011

In an October 2011 paper published in the International Journal of Public Opinion Research, researchers from George Mason University analyzed the results of a survey of 489 scientists working in academia, government, and industry. The scientists polled were members of the American Geophysical Union or the American Meteorological Society and listed in the 23rd edition of American Men and Women of Science, a biographical reference work on leading American scientists. Of those surveyed, 97% agreed that global temperatures have risen over the past century. Moreover, 84% agreed that "human-induced greenhouse warming" is now occurring. Only 5% disagreed with the idea that human activity is a significant cause of global warming. Surveys of scientists' views on climate change - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Isn't 97% of 34% smaller than 97%?
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