COVID 19 stats - ALLEGHENY COUNTY and beyond (Harrisburg, York: guidelines, nursing)

[Kippy]

While it is an absolute truth that we need to reopen, I don’t understand how we are going to protect the most vulnerable.

Currently, with strict lockdowns, nursing homes are hot beds of infection.

According to the WSJ, “The problem has been particularly acute in New Jersey, where 379 long-term care facilities, including nursing homes, have at least one confirmed case of Covid-19. A total of 8,209 cases have been reported at these facilities.”

As we have seen, nursing homes quickly descend from having one case to presumptively assuming the entire population is infected

New York State has released their data on nursing home deaths:

https://www.health.ny.gov/statistics...g_home_acf.pdf

Fifty-five fatalities in a Brooklyn home, forty-five in a Bronx home, etc.

If these are the numbers we see under lockdown, I can only imagine what it will be like once we start reopening.

A sad, sad fate for these elderly folks to die all alone, unable to have visitors, and with the knowledge that there will likely be no funeral. This is true for those who befall COVID-19 and those who are simply unlucky enough to die of old age during the lockdown.

I know someone who tries to communicate with her mom, who is in a home, via FaceTime. Her Mom, who does not have much time left on this Earth, has gone blind and has dementia; a sad situation for all those involved.

The only way to keep the infection out of nursing homes that do no already have infections would be to house the staff on-site.

[erieguy]

^^^^^^
Bingo

[zip95]

Originally Posted by erieguy

Watched it. TESTING & CONTACT TRACING
ü Ability to quickly set up safe and efficient screening and testing sites for symptomatic individuals and trace contacts of COVID+ results
ü Ability to test Syndromic/ILI-indicated persons for COVID and trace contacts of COVID+ results
ü Ensure sentinel surveillance sites are screening for asymptomatic cases and contacts for COVID+ results are traced (sites operate at locations that serve older individuals, lower-income Americans, racial minorities, and Native Americans)
HEALTHCARE SYSTEM CAPACITY
ü Ability to quickly and independently supply sufficient Personal Protective Equipment and critical medical equipment to handle dramatic surge in need
ü Ability to surge ICU capacity PLANS
ü Protect the health and safety of workers in critical industries
ü Protect the health and safety of those living and working in high-risk facilities (e.g.,
senior care facilities)
ü Protect employees and users of mass transit
ü Advise citizens regarding protocols for social distancing and face coverings
ü Monitor conditions and immediately take steps to limit and mitigate any rebounds or
outbreaks by restarting a phase or returning to an earlier phase, depending on severity

Imo these aren’t 100 moves ahead of what’s being done now. Much of it other than what’s above is social distancing, hygiene, social distancing, etc...

I shouldn't have said 100 moves ahead. It's hyperbole and really distracting from my main point which was, of course the government PhDs considered the issues szug-bot mentioned.

And regarding the plan: I'm confused about how you equate all non-essential business is closed in every county every where with... Here are specific requirements that each state must implement at a county or state level, and here is what may reopen at each phase. It explains steps each county must take to remain at a particular phase, and criteria to move up (or drop back down) to the next phase. Finally, ending in a complete reopening.

It describes a new sentinel program (similar to South Korea's approach) to track asymptomatic individuals in high-risk groups. The plan will be targeted at a county level instead of the one-size-fits-an-entire-nation approach we are using now. Actions taken will depend on measured data and facts on the ground instead of media hyperbole and flawed projections. There are criteria for employers and employees alike.

It's the high-level blueprint for reopening the country. How is that even remotely in the same universe?

[zip95]

Originally Posted by Kippy

While it is an absolute truth that we need to reopen, I don’t understand how we are going to protect the most vulnerable.

Currently, with strict lockdowns, nursing homes are hot beds of infection.

According to the WSJ, “The problem has been particularly acute in New Jersey, where 379 long-term care facilities, including nursing homes, have at least one confirmed case of Covid-19. A total of 8,209 cases have been reported at these facilities.”

As we have seen, nursing homes quickly descend from having one case to presumptively assuming the entire population is infected

New York State has released their data on nursing home deaths:

https://www.health.ny.gov/statistics...g_home_acf.pdf

Fifty-five fatalities in a Brooklyn home, forty-five in a Bronx home, etc.

If these are the numbers we see under lockdown, I can only imagine what it will be like once we start reopening.

A sad, sad fate for these elderly folks to die all alone, unable to have visitors, and with the knowledge that there will likely be no funeral. This is true for those who befall COVID-19 and those who are simply unlucky enough to die of old age during the lockdown.

I know someone who tries to communicate with her mom, who is in a home, via FaceTime. Her Mom, who does not have much time left on this Earth, has gone blind and has dementia; a sad situation for all those involved.

The only way to keep the infection out of nursing homes that do no already have infections would be to house the staff on-site.

Very true, but I suspect this sort of thing happens in bad flu seasons... just no one cares or pays attention. Sad indeed!

[erieguy]

Originally Posted by zip95

Very true, but I suspect this sort of thing happens in bad flu seasons... just no one cares or pays attention. Sad indeed!

Bingo

[gg]

Originally Posted by zip95

I think the plan unveiled yesterday is pretty good - a nuanced approach based on facts-on-the-ground rather than flawed models.

I really like the "sentinel" program that will look for local flare ups and direct resources in a targeted manner. What will be controversial (as soon as the media is looking for new issue to hype) is the testing of asymptomatic individuals in "high risk" areas, which include Native American reservations, inner cities, and lower income areas.

I also like how data will determine what can open and what must stay closed, and counties can move back and for between phases as needed.

Personally, I love that Allegheny county meets the criteria for phase 1, excess hospital capacity and a decreasing case trend line for at least two weeks.

I don't think it's perfect, but it's the only realistic solution I've seen. The "let it rip" and their "endless shutdown" counterparts are living in fantasy land.

Well stated.

[Kippy]

Originally Posted by zip95

Very true, but I suspect this sort of thing happens in bad flu seasons... just no one cares or pays attention. Sad indeed!

A huge portion of the current deaths, which are the justification for the lockdown, come from nursing homes. Will nursing home deaths not count towards the overall death count moving forward?

Under the reopening plan, what constitutes a rebound? If numbers go up, things close back down, correct?

If nursing homes suffer mass casualties under lockdown, is it not safe to assume that they will continue, or grow once the lockdown is lifted?

The PhDs will need to let us know how they plan to count future deaths. Either they don’t count nursing homes, or be prepared for things to close back down again when numbers inevitably climb.

[erieguy]

Originally Posted by Kippy

A huge portion of the current deaths, which are the justification for the lockdown, come from nursing homes. Will nursing home deaths not count towards the overall death count moving forward?

Under the reopening plan, what constitutes a rebound? If numbers go up, things close back down, correct?

If nursing homes suffer mass casualties under lockdown, is it not safe to assume that they will continue, or grow once the lockdown is lifted?

The PhDs will need to let us know how they plan to count future deaths. Either they don’t count nursing homes, or be prepared for things to close back down again when numbers inevitably climb.

More truth and reality. People see PHd and assume they’re geniuses in regards to everything they say.

[WhoIsStanwix?]

Originally Posted by erieguy

Watched it. TESTING & CONTACT TRACING
ü Ability to quickly set up safe and efficient screening and testing sites for symptomatic individuals and trace contacts of COVID+ results
ü Ability to test Syndromic/ILI-indicated persons for COVID and trace contacts of COVID+ results
ü Ensure sentinel surveillance sites are screening for asymptomatic cases and contacts for COVID+ results are traced (sites operate at locations that serve older individuals, lower-income Americans, racial minorities, and Native Americans)
HEALTHCARE SYSTEM CAPACITY
ü Ability to quickly and independently supply sufficient Personal Protective Equipment and critical medical equipment to handle dramatic surge in need
ü Ability to surge ICU capacity PLANS
ü Protect the health and safety of workers in critical industries
ü Protect the health and safety of those living and working in high-risk facilities (e.g.,
senior care facilities)
ü Protect employees and users of mass transit
ü Advise citizens regarding protocols for social distancing and face coverings
ü Monitor conditions and immediately take steps to limit and mitigate any rebounds or
outbreaks by restarting a phase or returning to an earlier phase, depending on severity

Imo these aren’t 100 moves ahead of what’s being done now. Much of it other than what’s above is social distancing, hygiene, social distancing, etc...

The entire section of testing and contact tracing are at least a month away

[erieguy]

And in the meantime I don’t see much difference in what already is being done.