COVID 19 stats - ALLEGHENY COUNTY and beyond (Pittsburgh, Mexico: how much, homes)

[gg]

Originally Posted by Enough_Already

In fact a final death rate can never be calculated because the number of people who get infected but are not diagnosed will never be known. That doesn't mean the death rate cannot be accurately estimated.


There has been information published indicating as many as 80% to 86% of people infected are not diagnosed. That means the denominator in the death rate calculation is five times higher. You are correct some of the current cases will end up being fatalities but the effect of that on the calculation will be small compared to the understatement of the denominator.


Using some published numbers and the 80% cases not diagnosed, I calculated a "real" death rate of about 0.7% with the rate being skewed toward older and people with other health issues. If the most vulnerable people are protected, the rate could be lower. Over time even without a "magic bullet" that rate should fall as more refined treatment protocols are developed.

Finally someone who can think. Also, there will be testing done to see if people have already had it and if the sample size gets great enough, I suspect we will have some better estimates. Clearly it is going to be a low percentage, but this is very contagious. Best to stay safe.

[szug-bot]

well, today's number from the PG is what we want to see - 3 straight days of declining new infections.
flatline this, corona!

[eschaton]

We may have caught a break, insofar as this was one of the last major metropolitan areas to have COVID-19 cases, and social distancing kicked in almost immediately. That's exactly what you want if you wish to avoid a major outbreak.

[szug-bot]

my observations are mine, of course, but it seems this:

you take away the MASS infections - a church choir, 100+ residents of an elderly home in TN, etc., and all of NYC (well, they cant help it because of the pop. density), and that might be a large chunk of everything.

still, people are suffering everywhere in all countries, either in scrubs or as patients.

its crazy to watch while we pretty much dodge a bullet.

[Copanut]

Originally Posted by szug-bot

its crazy to watch while we pretty much dodge a bullet.

Copy that.

[Independentthinking83]

Originally Posted by szug-bot

my observations are mine, of course, but it seems this:

you take away the MASS infections - a church choir, 100+ residents of an elderly home in TN, etc., and all of NYC (well, they cant help it because of the pop. density), and that might be a large chunk of everything.

still, people are suffering everywhere in all countries, either in scrubs or as patients.

its crazy to watch while we pretty much dodge a bullet.

I just don’t think we are anywhere near the end of this epidemic. Victory right now is quite premature. Let’s see where we are at the end of April. Pittsburgh ain’t getting restarted anytime soon as long as Philly and other parts of the state are a mess.

This may be the one time Pittsburgh would wish it was in a totally different state than Philly and embrace being a middle America city. Now you see the initial benefits of being in middle America. The eastern and western cities along with coasts aren’t the place the to be right now.

[gg]

Originally Posted by Independentthinking83

I just don’t think we are anywhere near the end of this epidemic. Victory right now is quite premature. Let’s see where we are at the end of April. Pittsburgh ain’t getting restarted anytime soon as long as Philly and other parts of the state are a mess.

This may be the one time Pittsburgh would wish it was in a totally different state than Philly and embrace being a middle America city. Now you see the initial benefits of being in middle America. The eastern and western cities along with coasts aren’t the place the to be right now.

I feel sorry for you really. All negative all the time. Gotta be a hard life. Take up Buddism for some help.

[erieguy]

Originally Posted by gg

I feel sorry for you really. All negative all the time. Gotta be a hard life. Take up Buddism for some help.

You obviously haven’t realized that he’s fear mongering and promoting doomsday to get a rise out of you. It became obvious the second he performed a total 180 after insisting the virus was no big deal.

[Independentthinking83]

Originally Posted by gg

I feel sorry for you really. All negative all the time. Gotta be a hard life. Take up Buddism for some help.

I’m giving my opinion, much like the poster. I have no problem that others feel different.

Being positive and realistic are two different things.

You are also confusing reality with negativity. It’s a reality that nobody is going to like.

[Independentthinking83]

Originally Posted by erieguy

You obviously haven’t realized that he’s fear mongering and promoting doomsday to get a rise out of you. It became obvious the second he performed a total 180 after insisting the virus was no big deal.

Come on buddy. The experts on MSN’s are predicting 32% unemployment for the nation in a few weeks. You can’t much more real than that.