2023 Real Estate Observations (Sudbury, Ashland: flood, census, insurance)

[lrfox]

Originally Posted by Iced_Coffee

I'm not seeing anything terribly different than in prior years. The only real difference is the average price is higher this year, while inventory right now is low (although still a bit higher than this time of year in 2021). Declining prices this time of year is not really new. Looking at the data below that I pulled from Lamacchia Realty, 2022 and 2021 showed more or less the same pattern in terms of seasonal price softening. So while we might be at the cusp of a larger-scale decline (I'm not the expert and won't claim to know one way or another), the current data in MA at least doesn't seem to show anything unusual. I'd be interested in other data/reports that indicate otherwise, though.

https://www.lamacchiarealty.com/ma-r...mote-ue-item-7


edited to add quote

Those declining prices have been deceptive in our experience. After casually looking a few years ago, then reducing that to little more than browsing Zillow and visiting the occasional open house, we moved back into the casually looking camp again this fall. We put in an offer below asking on one place and were quickly outbid (we didn't counter). A couple of Wednesdays ago, we toured a place that had been on the market for a few weeks and had a $10k price cut. It was nicer than we expected and we considered offering $10k under the current asking price thinking it had sat long enough that the seller may just take it, but we weren't in a rush. Well, they had an open house that Saturday, and it ended up getting several offers by Sunday, including one for $15k over asking (so $5k over the original list).

So at least from our limited experience, it doesn't seem to be all that much less competitive than it was a year or two ago in spite of the fact that we've seen more listings in our price range than we have in a while. We're in no rush, so it looks like we'll keep waiting.

[msRB311]

I have noticed a few places that had price cuts...but were priced very greedily high to begin with. In 2021...maybe they would have gotten what they asked for...hard to say. Why were people so much more willing to overpay in 2021 than in 2023? It could be people are more cautious of the economy now and maybe the increased mortgage rate has something to do with it.

[aboucher33]

Originally Posted by redplum33

It would be nice if we could have an honest discussion about the current real estate market.

I get it, some people are very concerned about their investment, but what I saw on here yesterday was stomach turning.

I am not sure what is stomach turning from yesterday but I do think the market is unsustainable. Young people and FTHB are screwed right now. Being locked out of the #1 wealth building asset in the country is setting back these kids even more.

[massnative71]

Originally Posted by lrfox

Those declining prices have been deceptive in our experience. After casually looking a few years ago, then reducing that to little more than browsing Zillow and visiting the occasional open house, we moved back into the casually looking camp again this fall. We put in an offer below asking on one place and were quickly outbid (we didn't counter). A couple of Wednesdays ago, we toured a place that had been on the market for a few weeks and had a $10k price cut. It was nicer than we expected and we considered offering $10k under the current asking price thinking it had sat long enough that the seller may just take it, but we weren't in a rush. Well, they had an open house that Saturday, and it ended up getting several offers by Sunday, including one for $15k over asking (so $5k over the original list).

So at least from our limited experience, it doesn't seem to be all that much less competitive than it was a year or two ago in spite of the fact that we've seen more listings in our price range than we have in a while. We're in no rush, so it looks like we'll keep waiting.

Even your examples suggest a softening of the market, considering I was outbid on two homes by $60K-$70K in late 2021. That seemed to be the norm at the time.

[redplum33]

Originally Posted by msRB311

I have noticed a few places that had price cuts...but were priced very greedily high to begin with. In 2021...maybe they would have gotten what they asked for...hard to say. Why were people so much more willing to overpay in 2021 than in 2023? It could be people are more cautious of the economy now and maybe the increased mortgage rate has something to do with it.

The interest rates.

Far less demand now for the suburbs. People flocked to the suburbs to get away from people during the heart of covid. It's not like that now. Many are leaving the suburbs.

The declining prices are real. People have become more selective, so it may not seem real to them because the houses they want are still strong. It's the ones they don't want...

[msRB311]

If the market is softening then ok, I can see that, but again we are just coming into December which has never been a time to buy or sell really...prices softening from 1.5 to 1.2 for a starter home, great.

[msRB311]

Originally Posted by redplum33

The interest rates.

Far less demand now for the suburbs. People flocked to the suburbs to get away from people during the heart of covid. It's not like that now. Many are leaving the suburbs.

The declining prices are real. People have become more selective, so it may not seem real to them because the houses they want are still strong. It's the ones they don't want...

No one is leaving my suburb other than older people whose kids are grown. Many are staying though because there is nothing to downsize to.

Can you really honestly say that familles are LEAVING suburbs to buy in BOSTON? Come on.

[lrfox]

Originally Posted by msRB311

I have noticed a few places that had price cuts...but were priced very greedily high to begin with. In 2021...maybe they would have gotten what they asked for...hard to say. Why were people so much more willing to overpay in 2021 than in 2023? It could be people are more cautious of the economy now and maybe the increased mortgage rate has something to do with it.

Again, I'm not an expert at all. But I'm wondering if there's a shift in listing strategy? With limited inventory (especially in the winter), a lot of buyers are competing for a few properties. So do you really need to list it 10-15% over what you can reasonably expect to get in order to get that much? Plenty of places are are still going for over asking. And if the price looks more competitive in the listing, you'll presumably get more eyes on the property which could trigger a bidding war.

I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong, but that feels like what's happened in the price range and towns where we're looking. There are slightly more listings in our price range popping up, but most seem to be ultimately selling for similar numbers to what we've seen over the past two years.

[msRB311]

I imagine some people have given up on buying a home for a while. I think some folks refuse to buy in a town they don't like that might cost less...so they continue to rent.

[redplum33]

Originally Posted by msRB311

No one is leaving my suburb other than older people whose kids are grown. Many are staying though because there is nothing to downsize to.

Can you really honestly say that familles are LEAVING suburbs to buy in BOSTON? Come on.

And nobody you know has lost their WFH recently.

Your bubble isn't consistent with overall trends.