[JonathanLB]

Originally Posted by Cubicle Dweller

THIS - which is the primary cause of my FOOP. It’s extreme in one direction or another and a friend in the real estate industry (but not in Nevada) warned me about that when I mentioned I was looking to buy.

I’m fortunate enough that it’s not a matter of affordability (Vegas prices still look attractive compared to the N.Y.-metro area). I just don’t want to be in a situation a few years from now where I have to move for work and I have to take a loss AND deal with a demanding buyer once the market becomes a buyers maket again (and it inevitably will). When I sold my previous home the buyers were demanding and extremely annoying - don’t want to relive that again. I can deal with demanding buyers if I’m not losing tens of thousands. I missed the boat and it’s a bummer, but it is what it is.

Florida has a very similar market and prices have also gone through the roof again over there. Both Vegas and Florida have a lot of foreign buyers and low-wage service economies which heavily depend on tourism. And Florida was pretty much in as bad of shape as Vegas after the crash. I have a relative in Miami in the same situation and he’s decided to sit the market out too and stick with renting. He’s lived in Miami his entire life and has seen these cycles before.

I don’t think there will be a massive crash like last time, but there might be a correction. Sure, people from California are moving to LV, but probably only retirees, those with remote jobs without kids, those who are willing to take a pay cut or low-wage earners who have crappy jobs in CA so the jobs in LV aren’t any better or worse. I don’t know much about the schools in California but for the most part they’re likely better than CCSD which is a factor for parents that care about education. So it’s not like the entire state of CA is going to move to LV, only certain segments of the population can / will.

That's right, yeah, plenty of people have CA-specific jobs and can't just move to Nevada even if they wanted to for lifestyle reasons. We are in the "remote jobs without kids" camp so there's really no more perfect place. Every city has pros and cons, though in my opinion some are much better than others, but a lot of where the best place to live is for you has to do with how many pros you hit and how many cons you miss. That's really what it's all about. For someone else, my city (Portland) and its insane radical liberal politics is a plus, but to me that's a major con. It hits me square in the forehead, so to speak, and removes any voting power that I have because my vote would never count here even on smaller issues. Or take the poor to mediocre-at-best education system in Las Vegas, not a con to me at all, I really don't care at all. I'll never own a business in Nevada and need to hire Las Vegas-educated people, nor will I ever have kids going to those schools, so I'll always be blissfully unaware of the whole situation or certainly won't care whatsoever about it.

I think people make a big deal about when to buy in what market, but the reality is we don't really know and I am not buying people's paranoia whatsoever. The market has finally almost recovered (but won't this year) from its lows, and people here are shouting about "OMG it's another bubble." It's a bubble that after a freakin' decade homes are almost worth as much as they were before? That's... ridiculous. I wonder if these people are all my age, because if you're older than 35 you should have more life experience and perspective to understand that the Great Recession was a once-in-a-lifetime event. There are of course always cycles in the economy, and recessions, but not of that magnitude, not by a long shot. It's a recency bias problem. The housing market isn't ready or due for any sort of correction at all. What will happen is a slowing of price increases and I could see a few stagnant years, like a 2-3 year period with home values just sitting there, not up, not down, but going nowhere. That's a lot more realistic scenario.

For me, I don't really care THAT much what the market does one way or another in the sense that I'm shopping in the luxury segment of the market and looking for a house that's going to be my home for, I hope, a decade or more. Our goal would probably be to hang onto that house until I'm around 50 years old, maybe even 55, and then custom build our own home way down the road. So if the market sometime in there, even if it's 2 years after we buy, takes a hit or goes through a rough patch, I really don't care, I'm not planning to sell. I can't be "relocated" because I don't have a job, don't depend on local income, and won't be forced to sell the house. It's a long-term asset for me and you only live once, so I'm not going to sit around "hoping" for a recession so that I can buy a house during the "down" years, but meanwhile be miserable living somewhere else. I'll take my chances and I'm sure many others will too.

[Prosze]

Originally Posted by chahunt

Same here. It will be interesting to watch what the local housing market in LV does during the fall and winter.
And if it will ramp back up next spring as it did this year.

Us as well. I mean, It's always a gamble, but we aren't going to engage in bidding wars or pay more than what we have in mind or what we think it's worth. That is how people lose their home and or go broke.



If the market is so hot houses shouldn't be sitting months. A few of the houses we like have been sitting because they are clearly overpriced. I just assume they own it outright and can let it sit. But then wouldn't it make more sense to rent it out and least get some income off of it?

[airics]

Originally Posted by Dltordj

If the market is so hot houses shouldn't be sitting months. A few of the houses we like have been sitting because they are clearly overpriced. I just assume they own it outright and can let it sit. But then wouldn't it make more sense to rent it out and least get some income off of it?

I agree 100%
As for renting it out, it’s a risk

We looked at a house last December, made an offer, and it was declined. Seller said they were going to rent it out instead. They rented it....it March it was with the description being, the tenants are finally out...back on the market. In May it went pending. In July , buyers financing fell through. Relisted. This week went pending again

[Tek_Freek]

[quote=Dltordj;52863552]Us as well. I mean, It's always a gamble, but we aren't going to engage in bidding wars or pay more than what we have in mind or what we think it's worth. That is how people lose their home and or go broke.



If the market is so hot houses shouldn't be sitting months. A few of the houses we like have been sitting because they are clearly overpriced. I just assume they own it outright and can let it sit. But then wouldn't it make more sense to rent it out and least get some income off of it?[/quote]

A house down the street from us had renters in it when we moved in. Really nice people. The owner decided to sell it and they made a good offer. The owner declined and put it on the market for an insane price. It sat, I believe, for at least two years and sold for less than their offer.

Duh.

Dumb way to lose money.

[OmegaSupreme]

I think if we gather enough anecdotal reports we may have something statistically relevant... Or not.

[Cold Warrior]

Originally Posted by OmegaSupreme

I think if we gather enough anecdotal reports we may have something statistically relevant... Or not.

Right. One house may be overpriced but there is still only a 2 months inventory of houses for sale and 25% of sales are all cash. We might not see a stronger seller's market in decades.

[bayview6]

Originally Posted by Cold Warrior

Right. One house may be overpriced but there is still only a 2 months inventory of houses for sale and 25% of sales are all cash. We might not see a stronger seller's market in decades.

The future is hard to predict. One possibility is that the Colorado River doesn’t supply enough water to AZ and CA leading to severe water restrictions in those States. While we here in Clark County are filling our swimming pools and watering our lush vegetation. Don’t you think demand for housing in the Valley won’t go up?

[SportyandMisty]

A swimming pool is much more water efficient than a grass lawn.

[lvmensch]

Originally Posted by SportyandMisty

A swimming pool is much more water efficient than a grass lawn.

Not likely particularly in the Las Vegas climate. The pool studies are biased. One tactic is to use pools with large concrete decks for the comparison. It is the deck that provides the advantage.

Truth is they are roughly the same. A covered pool however will be better than a lawn. Desert landscaping is of course vastly superior to both.

[mahjqueen]

I live in LV and love it here. We have lived through the bubble and recession and it was tough, but we all survived. Personally, I believe there will always be changes in the market. Unfortunatly, no one has the crystal ball to tell us the right and wrong times to buy. It is beautiful here in Summerlin. Lots of parks, shopping and restaurants. There is something for every lifestyle here.