Nocatee - Future appreciation (waterpark, homes, to buy)

[riveree]

Originally Posted by tallrick

Any homes like this in Nocatee? I think not.

Can't fit 10 foot ceilings in there...let alone 12 or 20 foot! No one would want to buy it.

[stevep]

Regarding Nocatee's appreciation, we used to live in a similar development to Nocatee in Virginia. It took over 10 years to complete and we moved in around year 8. From the start, there was very little appreciation until almost the completion of the development. Since there were several builders and tons of new homes for sale, the builders were basically dictating the prices. Since they were all competing against each other and each builder had hundreds of lots/homes to sell in the next 10 years, they weren't increasing their prices from one year to the next. If you tried to sell your "used" home, you'd have to sell it cheaper than the builders "new" home and this discount usually wiped out any gains. But, once the development was almost completed, prices skyrocketted because the builders were no longer dictating the prices and holding them down.

It's possible that the same might happen in Nocatee, especially given the current market conditions. I think Nocatee will be beautiful when it's completed and has a lot to offer (especially to families). With any homebuying decision, you want to make sure 1)if fits your budget and 2)the home/location/ammenities fits your lifestyle

[wacahootaman]

For what it is worth;

I was talking to a contractor the other day who does a lot of work in Nocaatee and he said that there is a lot of shoddy construction going on there. He said that he would never buy a home there.

He said they are using the cheapest materials possible and most homes are built by Mexicans who dont completely understand or cant read English so there are a lot of mistakes built into the homes. He said when he walks into a home under construction, all the writings and instructions on the walls are in Spanish.

The man seemed to know his trade so I dont know why he would tell me this if it wasnt true.

[kort677]

Originally Posted by wacahootaman

For what it is worth;

I was talking to a contractor the other day who does a lot of work in Nocaatee and he said that there is a lot of shoddy construction going on there. He said that he would never buy a home there.

He said they are using the cheapest materials possible and most homes are built by Mexicans who dont completely understand or cant read English so there are a lot of mistakes built into the homes. He said when he walks into a home under construction, all the writings and instructions on the walls are in Spanish.

The man seemed to know his trade so I dont know why he would tell me this if it wasnt true.

while it is unfortunate that this is the state of affairs in the construction trades, it isn't unique to Nocatee

[sugarbeet]

I think there is a Wisteria Lane in Celebration near Orlando.

[grayrunner]

Admittedly I'm not a fan of 'planned communities'. In fact
A neighbor asked me what I thought of one and I said it
looked nice except if I lived there I'd probably hang myself
inside a year.

That junk at Nocatee at those prices is so ridiculous that
I bet just signing the guest book puts you on a
worldwide chump list.

You can buy a big lot 5 blocks from the ocean for
less than 150k and put a 300k house on it and it
will never be threatened by the over development
endemic to Florida because there's no more land
there. But hey, Iv'e seen people buy ugly
townhouses overlooking a highway overpass on
Baymeadows Road because
they said the price was right! Great, except why
do you want to live there?

And comparisons to other states don't mean much.
RE taxes are less than Minnesota, the sales tax is
almost the same, and we don't have their state income tax
or utility heating bills.

[kort677]

Originally Posted by grayrunner

You can buy a big lot 5 blocks from the ocean for
less than 150k .

exactly where is this magical place in NE FLA?

[riveree]

Originally Posted by grayrunner

Admittedly I'm not a fan of 'planned communities'. In fact
A neighbor asked me what I thought of one and I said it
looked nice except if I lived there I'd probably hang myself
inside a year.

That junk at Nocatee at those prices is so ridiculous that
I bet just signing the guest book puts you on a
worldwide chump list.

You can buy a big lot 5 blocks from the ocean for
less than 150k and put a 300k house on it and it
will never be threatened by the over development
endemic to Florida because there's no more land
there. But hey, Iv'e seen people buy ugly
townhouses overlooking a highway overpass on
Baymeadows Road because
they said the price was right! Great, except why
do you want to live there?

And comparisons to other states don't mean much.
RE taxes are less than Minnesota, the sales tax is
almost the same, and we don't have their state income tax
or utility heating bills.

I did actually recently see 2 lots for sale, on busy roads, a bit more than 5 blocks from the Ocean in Jax Beach. Both lots were quite small (roughly 50 feet in width and 100 feet in depth) and they were both priced in the $350-$400k range. These lots were not where I'd want to live (traffic day and night in the front yard), but they'd be "at the beach" for someone I guess.

[janiedress]

One other thing that people need to consider about Nocatee is that even if they make a good investment decision, they will not get the return on that investment for years because the builders will be building houses for the same prices individuals will be tryin to resell them for. Most people will opt for a brand new house with their own personal touch instead of buying an existing home. We find that is the case all of the time in the RE industry!
Once the builders get close to closing the last phases, they sometimes drop the prices of homes to get them to move faster. This causes the home appraisals in the area to drop drastically for a while. This is happening right now in Bartram Springs, where there is only about 1100 homes. It is my understanding that Nocatee will be much bigger and take much longer to finish up. If you don't mind waiting for the long term investment, you may be waiting a lot longer than you anticipated. A lot of people are opting for some of the newer, smaller communities where the houses cost about the same as the ones in Nocatee, but will hold their value better because of them being gated, or smaller (i.e., Worthington Park, Bartram Plantation, Port St. John, etc.).

[west1va]

Below is an excerpt from one of the leading home builder's ( Ryland Homes) annual report related to Florida. Note their profits...they're making a bundle. They have plenty of room to lower their prices as the market continues to soften which means it will be many years before appreciation will mean much to anyone purchasing a house:

Southeast- Homebuilding revenues were $1.5 billion in 2006, compared to $1.3 billion in 2005, an increase of 21.0 percent, primarily due to a 4.9 percent rise in the number of homes delivered and a 15.4 percent increase in the average sales price of homes delivered. Gross margins on home sales were 25.9 percent in 2006, compared to 23.4 percent in 2005. Gross margins on home sales increased in 2006 primarily due to a 15.4 percent rise in average sales price and to a change in mix in prices and profitability of homes delivered, partially offset by an increase in price concessions and sales incentives. Price concessions and sales incentives for the year ended December 31, 2006 and 2005 were 5.6 percent and 3.4 percent, respectively.