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Old 02-26-2016, 11:22 PM
 
2,986 posts, read 2,009,568 times
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New polls:

National (Ipsos, online) : Clinton +25
National (SurveyMonkey) : Clinton +11
Georgia (WSB-TV/Landmark) : Clinton +46
Kansas (Fort Hays State University) : Clinton +10

 
Old 02-26-2016, 11:32 PM
 
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We finally have a poll for Kansas (from Fort Hays State University as listed above). According to Nate Silver, Kansas is a state that Sanders must win by like 18% to be on track to have a TIE in nomination, so Hillary leading in Kansas is bad news for Sanders.

But since there are still 44% of the voters being undecided, it means things can turn out either way, but the turnout is going to be awfully low like the 3 states that already voted, so that's another bad news for Sanders. If he can't bring out voters like Obama did in 2008 (even so, BO and HRC each got roughly 18 million votes) and Trump is doing this year, there is no way for Sanders to overcome Hillary.
 
Old 02-27-2016, 08:34 AM
 
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Turnout in the only primary so far, NH, was about the same as in 2008 even when 2008 had more candidates with ground game. It wasnt "awfully low".
 
Old 02-27-2016, 09:14 AM
 
Location: Denver CO
24,201 posts, read 19,465,564 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PCALMike View Post
Turnout in the only primary so far, NH, was about the same as in 2008 even when 2008 had more candidates with ground game. It wasnt "awfully low".
Nope. It was almost 34,000 votes lower, or about 12% lower. Over 10% is not "almost the same"
 
Old 02-27-2016, 09:40 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by emm74 View Post
Nope. It was almost 34,000 votes lower, or about 12% lower. Over 10% is not "almost the same"
Still, Sanders got twice as many votes as Bill, Al Gore and John Kerry did and 50% more than Hillary did in 2008. The turnout for Sanders at least smashed all records.
 
Old 02-27-2016, 09:52 AM
 
Location: Denver CO
24,201 posts, read 19,465,564 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PCALMike View Post
Still, Sanders got twice as many votes as Bill, Al Gore and John Kerry did and 50% more than Hillary did in 2008. The turnout for Sanders at least smashed all records.
Spin it however you want, Bernie's revolution hasn't happened, at least not yet. Unlikely to at all, IMO.
 
Old 02-27-2016, 12:05 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
22,285 posts, read 19,667,480 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by emm74 View Post
Nope. It was almost 34,000 votes lower, or about 12% lower. Over 10% is not "almost the same"
Turnout was lower than 2008, but higher than most other past Primaries. Primary turnout for the Democrats in 2008 smashed all sorts of records, and it wasn't even close to anything prior to that. Turnout this year is dowm from the records in 2008, but is still higher than it usually is.

With that being said getting back to parrt of the initial argument, I would agrree Bernie needs a strong Super Tuesday otherwise his campaign is in a bit of touble. He doesn't need to win a majority, but needs at least 4 and perhaps even 5 depending on some of the margins and delegate totals
 
Old 02-27-2016, 03:31 PM
 
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Looks like most of the people who voted in SC are elderly African Americans. It will be a blowout for Clinton that's for sure. African Americans were 74-22 in favor of Clinton in Nevada and that could be the result in SC.
 
Old 02-27-2016, 03:42 PM
 
2,464 posts, read 1,303,381 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PCALMike View Post
Looks like most of the people who voted in SC are elderly African Americans. It will be a blowout for Clinton that's for sure. African Americans were 74-22 in favor of Clinton in Nevada and that could be the result in SC.
More than likely, but that doesn't really matter much.
 
Old 02-27-2016, 03:45 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cliftonpdx View Post
More than likely, but that doesn't really matter much.
You mean SC doesnt matter much?
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