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I can't remember the percentage but apparently some very high percentage of NPP voters did not know they had to request Democratic ballot to vote for president. I think the results are going to remain unknown because that type of factor - early voters vs. those who vote on election day, NPP voters who want to vote for Bernie but don't know they have to ask for the right ballot. It's not easy to poll on these kinds of factors.
What seems clear to me is that it's not going to be a landslide on either side, and as much as Bernie will want to crow if he wins even by a handful of points, it doesn't change anything. And a second place finish doesn't give him the right to demand concessions let alone the nomination.
I can't remember the percentage but apparently some very high percentage of NPP voters did not know they had to request Democratic ballot to vote for president.
Why? It's been all over the news since before early voting began.
Quote:
Originally Posted by emm74
I think the results are going to remain unknown because that type of factor - early voters vs. those who vote on election day, NPP voters who want to vote for Bernie but don't know they have to ask for the right ballot. It's not easy to poll on these kinds of factors.
I agree and, although it's possible that rule might have an effect on the outcome in Calif, it's very different from voter fraud or suppression. IMO it is up to every candidate and his or her campaign staff to do the groundwork to get out the vote. I've seen numerous websites with all the information anyone needs.
Even if a voter is confused, there are many resources in every community. I recently moved to a new state and had no idea how/where to get my driver's license, vote, etc., but I found out very quickly. Every state has a website with instructions on how to register and vote and I've moved a lot (too much) over the past 20 years. I just feel someone who is old enough to drive a 2 ton vehicle and buy a shotgun should be able to figure out how to vote. I would write the same thing no matter whom I supported.
Sanders supporters just cherrypick information and spin about them!
I just read this article and even Nate Silver can't figure out who is going to win California by the polls. Guess the results in Michigan really spooked him!
"So while the polls could be off by enough for Sanders to win California — I like his odds better than our polling model does — they could also be off in the other direction, meaning that Clinton could win by 15 to 20 percentage points."
[url=http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hispanic-voters-will-decide-bernie-sanderss-fate-in-california/]Hispanic Voters Will Decide Bernie Sanders’s Fate in California | FiveThirtyEight[/url]
This article has to be the most non-committal one I've read on a site that reports polling forecasts. It does point out, however, that Clinton far outperformed the Calif polls in 2008 over Obama.
There are 6 states voting on June 7. So I just hope that the media waits until all the polls have closed before announcing she's won the nomination. I realize it might not make any difference mathematically, but it could affect voter turnout. Now the only thing we can do is wait.
I just read this article and even Nate Silver can't figure out who is going to win California by the polls. Guess the results in Michigan really spooked him!
"So while the polls could be off by enough for Sanders to win California — I like his odds better than our polling model does — they could also be off in the other direction, meaning that Clinton could win by 15 to 20 percentage points."
This article has to be the most non-committal one I've read on a site that reports polling forecasts. It does point out, however, that Clinton far outperformed the Calif polls in 2008 over Obama.
There are 6 states voting on June 7. So I just hope that the media waits until all the polls have closed before announcing she's won the nomination. I realize it might not make any difference mathematically, but it could affect voter turnout. Now the only thing we can do is wait.
I doubt that is going to happen. California is always slow with the count. It'll be Wednesday if they wait.
They fact that Hillary Clinton's name is misspelled should be a dead give away, not to mention that there is no validity to a poll with 2 primary opponents against the nominee of another party.
They fact that Hillary Clinton's name is misspelled should be a dead give away, not to mention that there is no validity to a poll with 2 primary opponents against the nominee of another party.
If he has at least some background in statistics, he wouldn't have posted here. That poll is clearly not scientific and is therefore meaningless in estimating how a population will vote.
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