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NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton 49 Sanders 47 [url=http://www.wsj.com/articles/hillary-clinton-holds-2-point-lead-ahead-of-california-primary-poll-finds-1464814829]Hillary Clinton Holds 2-Point Lead Ahead of California Primary, Poll Finds - WSJ[/url]
Go Bernie! Let "good" triumph over "evil"!
These polls confuse me. The same time the PPP poll showed Hillary only ahead by 2 points over Sanders, Survey USA gave her +18.
Now the Marist poll is also showing Clinton is only ahead by 2 points. But this poll taken yesterday shows Hillary ahead by 13 points.
[url=http://www.hoover.org/press-releases/hoover-institution-golden-state-poll-clinton-13-over-sanders-harris-sanchez-lead]Hoover Institution Golden State Poll: Clinton +13 Over Sanders; Harris, Sanchez Lead Senate Field | Hoover Institution[/url]
Dear Trump Supporters in California, as you know Trump is already the Republican nominee and the GOP race is over. But the race between Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton is still ongoing. Let's help give Bernie Sanders a huge victory and stop Clinton from becoming the democratic nominee. There's no reason to vote for Trump in the primary since he is already the nominee. If you want your vote to matter, vote for Bernie
For dead sure, many Trump supporters have registered NPP (no party preference) and will cross over to vote for Sanders.
Add to that the NPPs who are Trump supporters and mistakenly believe they'll be able to vote in the GOP primary. When they arrive at the poll and they can't get a GOP ballot, they'll instead take a Dem ballot and vote for Sanders just out of spite.
Honestly, I don't know why Sanders bothered to protest the CA registration process, it favors him tremendously.
Registered Republicans cannot vote in the Democratic primary. You have to be a registered Democrat or be unenrolled in any party. And they have to have already requested a Republican ballot if they intend to vote by mail.
Thanks. But I was thinking of the NPP voters. Can't they request a ballot from either party?
Thanks. But I was thinking of the NPP voters. Can't they request a ballot from either party?
Yes, they can request a Dem ballot if they want. But in 2014, almost 70% of California voters used vote-by-mail, and they would have had to have already requested a Dem ballot (had to do so by 5/31).
So sure, there may be some NPP who show up on election day and ask for a Dem ballot. But I am not sure if will be a large enough number to have a lot of influence on the outcome. Guess we'll see in another 6 days!
These polls confuse me. The same time the PPP poll showed Hillary only ahead by 2 points over Sanders, Survey USA gave her +18.
Now the Marist poll is also showing Clinton is only ahead by 2 points. But this poll taken yesterday shows Hillary ahead by 13 points.
That's why you have to look at an aggregate of polls and not individual polls.
IMO (and I'm not alone) Huff Pollster does a better job at aggregating than Real Clear Politics. As I type this, their aggregate shows Clinton up by 7+ points over Sanders but it can and will change often. They update frequently. 2016 California Democratic Presidential Primary - Polls - HuffPost Pollster
Strange - none of them (Huff, RCP or FiveThirtyEight) are including the Hoover Institution Poll. I need to look at it again, but I believe it's associated with Stanford University. I assume that should hold some weight.
Looks as if they work with YouGov. Anyway, that poll which puts Clinton up by 13 points hasn't been mentioned at all today. Maybe the media prefers a nail biter. LOL
Strange - none of them (Huff, RCP or FiveThirtyEight) are including the Hoover Institution Poll. I need to look at it again, but I believe it's associated with Stanford University. I assume that should hold some weight.
Edit: Looks as if they work with YouGov. Anyway, that poll which puts Clinton up by 13 points hasn't been mentioned at all today. Maybe the media prefers a nail biter. LOL
Strange - none of them (Huff, RCP or FiveThirtyEight) are including the Hoover Institution Poll. I need to look at it again, but I believe it's associated with Stanford University. I assume that should hold some weight.
Yes, you're right. I just realized it when I read the "about" page. However, the date I saw was May 31 which is why I thought it was a new poll. Well, we'll find out on Tuesday.
Quote:
Originally Posted by biscuitmom
Good point, I don't know why they didn't include it. However that poll was actually conducted May 4-16 so it's already stale.
edit to add: I just checked back and Huff Pollster includes it. It's the 4th one down, as I type this. [url]http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-california-democratic-presidential-primary[/url]
FiveThirtyEight also included it. I thought it was a new poll.
That seems very long ago to be discussing as a current poll but the numbers match up.
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