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Yes, thanks to both you and biscuitmom for your responses. Guess I'm not thinking too clearly tonight.
No, I was very confused too and had to keep digging to find the cross tabs to compare the various numbers to confirm that the numbers being reported yesterday actually came from this poll. I can't imagine why they took 2 weeks to release it.
Well, I hate to say it, but maybe the State Dept email report hurt Clinton. 11 points is a big difference in such a short time. OTOH, in a state so large and diversified, I don't know how polling a small group of people can be accurate. 2 of the May polls were taken during the same period and differ greatly.
Marist College, May 29-31 - Clinton +2
Survey USA, May 19-22 - Clinton +18
PPIC, May 13-22 - Clinton +2
YouGov, May 4-16 - Clinton +13
Well, I hate to say it, but maybe the State Dept email report hurt Clinton. 11 points is a big difference in such a short time. OTOH, in a state so large and diversified, I don't know how polling a small group of people can be accurate. 2 of the May polls were taken during the same period and differ greatly.
Marist College, May 29-31 - Clinton +2
Survey USA, May 19-22 - Clinton +18
PPIC, May 13-22 - Clinton +2
YouGov, May 4-16 - Clinton +13
Both Bill and Hillary will stay in California from now to June 7. She is no longer attending an event in Pennsylvania and cancelled an event in New Jersey.
Since California is notoriously slow in counting votes, so it will only have like half the votes counted on election night, so we don't expect the winner to be called until Jun 8th in a close race like this one. Hillary will probably make a big speech on June 7th as she clinches the nomination (yes the Bernie math people will insist otherwise but that is not the truth).
According to the NBC/WSJ/Marist and field polls, Hillary leads among those who voted early. That's good for her, that means her task in the upcoming days is really to turn out her base.
I think it will be bad if Hillary really does lose California in the end, but there is really some silver lining, it's really the end of the primary and momentum doesn't really matter. Bernie supporters will brag Bernie won the largest state and Hillary should drop out, but that's out of touch with reality as Obama LOST 6 of the 7 biggest states in 2008 and still got nominated. Also, official endorsements from prominent democrats like Barack Obama and Elizabeth Warren will also reduce the tone.
I agree about endorsements and support from the rest of the party being important. Obama is clearly chomping at the bit to get started campaigning in earnest and he's already alluded to Hillary as the nominee/next president many times.
And I think people like Warren and Brown (who of course is already supporting Hillary) and other progressives within the Democratic party will be working to unify people and try to get the new/Independent supporters engaged and involved with Hillary and with other candidates down the ticket. Democrats all over the country want for this primary to be over so everyone can start focusing their full attention on Trump and other GOP candidates.
And, Hillary still spends her time going after Trump. "The Tortoise and the Hare". Sanders picks up more superdelegates - POLITICO I would love to see Bernie get the nomination and Hillary get what Hillary deserves!
Democrats all over the country want for this primary to be over so everyone can start focusing their full attention on Trump and other GOP candidates.
I mostly avoid the Presidential Polls thread because IMO it's so premature at this point as to be meaningless.
Watching HRC's speech today really drove in for me that the Democratic Primary is over and now this thread is meaningless.
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