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Ron Paul is in first place in the latest Public Policy Polling poll, which was from 1/1/2012. He was just one point ahead of Romney, which is basically a tie.
He was only 2 points behind Romney in the Des Moines Register poll, which is also a statistical tie.
Both polls show Santorum surging. What would be a real shocker is if Santorum got 2nd place ahead of Romney and Paul got 1st. That would make some waves and be an embarrassment for Romney.
Not really, as long as Romney finishes third or higher, it's ok. He was never expected to do all that well in Iowa. Although, from the crowds he has been getting when appearing there, not everyone in Iowa hates him it seems.
Right now he is second or third place, not first so the question is will Paul drop out when Romney wins Iowa and NH?
Actually, right now we're flying blind. The polls have reshuffled drastically in the last week. We don't have updated numbers for:
South Carolina
Florida
National Polls
We know that Gingrich dropped like a rock in Iowa. The last nationwide polls were taken back when Gingrich was leading in Iowa. Is the rest of the nation following suit and writing off Newt? Nobody knows for certain, but probably. His numbers did appear to be dropping a few weeks ago.
The most recent data we have from South Carolina was over two weeks ago with Gingrich controlling more than 30% of the vote but starting to drop quickly. Romney held a steady 20%. Paul was a very distant third with about 8%. If Gingrich has continued to drop like a rock in SC, who picked up all of his voters? We honestly have no idea.
In Florida, the most recent data is even more outdated. That too saw Gingrich with a huge lead, but dropping fast. Romney was at about 30%. Paul was again a distant third with about 7% of the vote.
All we have recent numbers for is Iowa and New Hampshire. Paul might win Iowa. New Hampshire is looking extremely unlikely. Then there is the X factor that Ron Paul supporters much younger on average. Scientific polls tend to follow trends from past elections and younger adults have generally not shown up well (under 40% in almost all cases) in past elections. So if Ron Paul represents a surge in younger voters showing up, we might see Ron Paul doing a good deal better in the actual vote than the scientific polls say. Not sure if that'd be a game changer exactly, but it's worth consideration. Any given poll might say that Ron Paul is down by 5%, but his numbers in actual voter turnout might have him slightly ahead.
That doesn't win New Hampshire obviously, but it stands to show up in Iowa and anywhere else where Paul is running very close.
Quote:
Originally Posted by emilybh
On Google Trends, Paul is in first place and WAY ahead of the others. If real people willing to extend their own effort to find out about him on line has any bearing on his popularity and translates to votes, the polls that don't have him in first place are wrong. This is true nationally and in Iowa.
People are far less interested in finding out about Romney or Santorum or anyone else on-line as you can plainly see.
The numbers on Google Trends shouldn't be surprising. Ron Paul is generally under-reported in the mainstream media and his supporters are younger and very tech savvy. And this very well might be the biggest Internet-based push for a presidential candidate we've ever seen.
Google Trends probably isn't a good measure of voter turnout, though I'd love to be wrong there.
I think SC is a must for Paul to win to get the momentum needed, next up is Florida and I do not think he can win there. If that takes place you would have Romney and Paul with 2 states each and the race is on.
Paul certainly has the street cred in South Carolina with his newsletters and his ties to Don Black.
the statement was uncalled for and very tacky...I don't care what you think or who you support, of course we know you would neve support any Republican and should I remind you, Huckabee came in second overall in 2008.
NIta
There was nothing uncalled for, or tacky in their posting
that is true but so many of the Paul supporters here have been saying for weeks he would win Iowa and now it doesn't look so promising. Why is that and how do you handle the predictions not coming true if indeed he doesn't win or even come in second? I really doubt he will win NH either.
Nita
How do you handle the fact that for months all the BIG government crony capitalists and war mongers have been saying along with the MSM that Paul is unelectable yet he is now positioned to place in both Iowa and New Hampshire?
There was nothing uncalled for, or tacky in their posting
I didn't mean the posting at all: I meant Huntsman's statement...I guess I should have made myself a little clearer.
Nita
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