Coronavirus in Delaware: a place to share news, tips, information (Rehoboth Beach: store, airplane)

[nuts2uiam]

There was testing done yesterday at Epworth Church on Route 1 yesterday. I saw a ton of cars waiting on lines to be tested and the governor said the results of those tests will determine the schedule of the past 3 opening.

[Mary2014]

Originally Posted by nuts2uiam

Today's numbers over/under

NCC 4840 + 49
KENT 1635 + 5
SUSSEX 4519

Hospitalizations 78 -15

I apologize however, I am not certain how to correct yesterday's numbers for Sussex. I went back to look at yesterday's number when I had more than today's number. The curious thing is that when you go to the master cumulative data of cases by county and scroll back on the graphs for Sussex county not one of the numbers match what they put out for the prior weeks. I did not look at the other counties.

For example, I randomly picked May 31. They indicate the number 4308. I figured it out or so I thought. They are using "actual" date data and I am posting data as it is posted which is for the prior day. So I went to my post of June 1 (data from 5/31) and my number was 4330. I went back to their data for 5/30 and the number was 4285. So I am confused.

Nuts your numbers were correct. I keep a manual log of what is reported each day. The Sussex county numbers DROPPED by 19 today over yesterday. I think it is because for the past several weeks the numbers have included "probable" cases. Some of those probable cases test results likely came back negative.

I think this might explain some of the increase of the hospital cases jumping over the past 3 or 4 days and todays dramatic decrease of hospital cases in one day. My church sends us updates when a church member goes into the hospital. Often the person is listed as probable Covid-19. A few days later the church updates us and indicates that the test for covid-19 came back negative.

So, the current day reported number adds positive and probable cases that day to the previous day, MINUS the probable cases previously tested and turned out negative for Covid-19. There can be at least a 2 -5 day lag time before a bunch of these negative tests are reported. Sometimes the negative test results reported on a particular day can outnumber the positive and probable cases reported for that day.

[Mary2014]

Originally Posted by nuts2uiam

There was testing done yesterday at Epworth Church on Route 1 yesterday. I saw a ton of cars waiting on lines to be tested and the governor said the results of those tests will determine the schedule of the past 3 opening.

The governor encouraged all students who were in Dewey or Rehoboth during senior week get tested. I imagine that explains the long lines at several testing locations.

[nuts2uiam]

Originally Posted by Mary2014

Nuts your numbers were correct. I keep a manual log of what is reported each day. The Sussex county numbers DROPPED by 19 today over yesterday. I think it is because for the past several weeks the numbers have included "probable" cases. Some of those probable cases test results likely came back negative.

I think this might explain some of the increase of the hospital cases jumping over the past 3 or 4 days and todays dramatic decrease of hospital cases in one day. My church sends us updates when a church member goes into the hospital. Often the person is listed as probable Covid-19. A few days later the church updates us and indicates that the test for covid-19 came back negative.

So, the current day reported number adds positive and probable cases that day to the previous day, MINUS the probable cases previously tested and turned out negative for Covid-19. There can be at least a 2 -5 day lag time before a bunch of these negative tests are reported. Sometimes the negative test results reported on a particular day can outnumber the positive and probable cases reported for that day.

Thanks Mary, I thought I was losing my mind. But that still does not answer why the numbers on the cumulative pages don't match. I am not going to lose sleep over it but, it is confusing. Thanks again.

[Mary2014]

Originally Posted by nuts2uiam

Thanks Mary, I thought I was losing my mind. But that still does not answer why the numbers on the cumulative pages don't match. I am not going to lose sleep over it but, it is confusing. Thanks again.

It all started when they decided to go back in time and add presumed positive cases even though they were never tested. If on May 1st they discover 6 people who likely had covid-19 April 15th they added it to the april 15th date. That increased the cumulative number by 6 for all the numbers reported thru the current date of May 1st. So, every time they reported and backdated cases presumed , but, never tested the cumulative numbers changed going forward.

The presumed positive and never tested were lumped in with positive tested for the cumulative number until they changed the format in early June.

As best as I can tell they started breaking out and reporting positive tested and presumed positive in early June. Now once the presumed positive get tested and results come back they adjust for the tests that come back negative.

Well, that is my best guess as to how it works. If you look at total cases that get added to the cumulative total, and compare that to the total positive cases by adding the positive tests results in each county - they never agree. The difference I think are presumed positive - either never tested or tested but results of the test is still unknown. Without seeing the actual data on a daily basis it is hard to tell the exact method they use to account for the presumed positive numbers from day to day.

[lyndyb]

I very much appreciate you taking the time and making the effort to post the numbers reported each day! I think a lot of adjustments are made to statistics if or when information is analyzed or becomes known. The State of NJ announced another 1,854 NJ deaths that will be counted as victims of Covid 19 following a state review of death certificates and prior outbreaks.

In a statement, Gov. Phil Murphy said: "We report this out of nothing else than a solemn sense of duty," Gov. Phil Murphy said Thursday. "For many families we hope these determinations will provide a sense of closure and of finally knowing. For our state, I hope it steels our resolve to do all that we can to save every single life that we can save.”

Heaven knows how they'll back this into the statistics, if they do - but it's just another example of how numbers can change and be adjusted. Please don't make yourself crazy, Nuts - you can only post what the site says each day- which may not be what's reflected at a later date.

[nuts2uiam]

Lyndyb, too late I am already nuts. I would not have noticed it at all, but I always look back and the prior day report to do the math to note the increase over yesterday's numbers. Perhaps, I need to start drinking heavily and then I would not have noticed.

[rothbear]

We were on Rte 1 North from Milford until Little Creek exit today mid-afternoon and there were hundreds of cars going south just in that short span. Most of them having front license plates, which means NJ, MD, NY. Can recognize some of the the NY ones from a distance as they are the bright orange-yellow color. Of course the ones with no plates in the front could be PA as well as DE. Quite a few RVs and campers as well as cars with loads of other sporting/water "toys".

Doubt there will be much social distancing or masks in southern DE this weekend and next week through 7/4 weekend.

[Pine to Vine]

Originally Posted by rothbear

We were on Rte 1 North from Milford until Little Creek exit today mid-afternoon and there were hundreds of cars going south just in that short span. Most of them having front license plates, which means NJ, MD, NY. Can recognize some of the the NY ones from a distance as they are the bright orange-yellow color. Of course the ones with no plates in the front could be PA as well as DE. Quite a few RVs and campers as well as cars with loads of other sporting/water "toys".

Doubt there will be much social distancing or masks in southern DE this weekend and next week through 7/4 weekend.

You realize that Delaware has a higher rate infection than Pennsylvania (1131 v 685/100k)? Applying statistics, any Pennsylvanian coming to Delaware is more likely to by infected by a Delawarean than vice versa.

[Mary2014]

nuts,
There was an article in the cape gazette that explains some of the wonky numbers reported on Friday. The state started transitioning to a new system to tract data. The article noted that while there were 78 reported new cases in the state, only a net of 37 were added to the cumulative total. In the process of the transition to the new system they found some multiple reports of some of the positive cases being reported twice.

I recall listening to the pod cast this past Tuesday where they said they were going to be migrating data to a new tracking system on Friday and it might take a few days to test the new system.