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Thanks for that information. I had been looking for a place to find that a few weeks ago and reached out to the Governors office and also the Public Health Department and never heard back from either. I think that this is important information to get out there so maybe people will realize that the vaccine really does work. I do wish they would go a bit further and break down the number of people who are hospitalized and critical and passed away between vaccinated and unvaccinated too. I think that is something most people would like to know. I know my mask won't be being retired any time soon.
YHJH - I have the same wishes that the statistics were further broken down to tell us how many hospitalized were vaccinated/unvaccinated. Given all the articles I read about breakthrough cases among the vaccinated, I was surprised the # is only 3/10 of 1 percent in DE. Of course, that represents 1,236 people and it's significant if you're one of them. While I'd like to believe it, I guess I'm a little skeptical, though I realize iti's easy to lose perspective while reading/watching the news.
nuts2uiam - I know that you never intended to update the #'s for so long, so I definitely wouldn't feel responsible for adding MORE data to your daily postings, if I was you. Much as I'm sure that everyone appreciates your willingness and diligence, I included the link so people would have the ability to find it themselves and didn't mean to add to your load.
YHJH - I have the same wishes that the statistics were further broken down to tell us how many hospitalized were vaccinated/unvaccinated. Given all the articles I read about breakthrough cases among the vaccinated, I was surprised the # is only 3/10 of 1 percent in DE. Of course, that represents 1,236 people and it's significant if you're one of them. While I'd like to believe it, I guess I'm a little skeptical, though I realize iti's easy to lose perspective while reading/watching the news.
nuts2uiam - I know that you never intended to update the #'s for so long, so I definitely wouldn't feel responsible for adding MORE data to your daily postings, if I was you. Much as I'm sure that everyone appreciates your willingness and diligence, I included the link so people would have the ability to find it themselves and didn't mean to add to your load.
Not to worry, I copy and paste and it is just one more number. Like I said, I actually had it all written up and ready to send on Friday and said 'nah no one will care but me." I am happy to do it. From all that I have heard from a couple of Beebe people most are non vax'd here. I actually emailed the governors office and the DPH and suggested that they add the number of vax'd or non vax'd to the daily stats. I got a perfunctory note back from DPH that was a form letter and essentially had no connection at all to what I wrote. The gov's office was a bit more personal and said they would pass the suggestion along. I am going to see if I can reach out to the Cape Gazette or Delaware online via my contacts and see if there is a news conference from Carney if someone will ask that question for me.
I know this is a bit long, but I thought it had a ton of great information in it. Posted to FB by a good friend.
From J. Stacey Klutts, Special Assistant to the National Director of Pathology and Lab Medicine for the VA system:
It's been a while since I weighed in on anything related to SARS-CoV-2/COVID. I see many posts describing the 'on the ground' impact of the Delta variant with desperate pleas for people to get vaccinated and wear masks. I couldn't agree more with these sentiments, but I will take a bit of a different educational approach. I am in a unique position to report on what is going on with the virus itself and how it interacts with the vaccines. I'm currently the Special Assistant to the National Director of Pathology and Lab Medicine for the entire VA system, with a specific role in advising on elements of COVID testing for the system. As such, I have a front row seat to all of the latest data, as we have to use those data in making our national policy decisions. So, here are a few important points about the Delta variant that may be of acute interest along with some education and salient points about the vaccines. I'll do my best to stitch this all together to where it makes some sense:
1. The Delta variant (lineage B.1.617.2) has a particular collection of mutations in the spike protein (that knob-like projection you see in renderings of the virus) that make it extremely effective in attaching to human cells and gaining entry. If the original CoV-2 strains were covered in syrup, this variant is covered in ultra-fast drying Gorilla Super Glue (industrial strength).
2. There are two recent publications which demonstrate that the viral loads in the back of the throats of infected patients are 1000X higher with Delta variant than with previous variants. I can tell you from data in my own labs, that is absolutely true! We are seeing viral signals we NEVER saw last year using the exact same assays.
3. This much higher load PLUS the ultra-'stickiness' of the Delta strains for adhering to human cells makes it remarkably more infectious than previous strains. You may have heard of R0 (Read: R naught) which is, in a nutshell, the expected number of persons to which an infected person would be expected to transmit the virus. Early versions of the virus had a 2 to 2.5 R0 value. So one infected person would infect two or so people on average. Delta has an R0 of about 8! In the infectious disease world, that's almost unheard of. Chickenpox and Measles are about all we have ever seen that spread that efficiently from human to human. This changes the story line completely from earlier in the pandemic and makes this surge, in many ways, like a completely different pandemic event.
4. There is another recent publication out of Singapore with data that confirms something we suspected. I will explain more about the 'why' on this below when I talk about vaccines, but the gist is this: The viral loads in the throats of vaccinated persons who become infected with Delta (more about that below) rises at identical rates as in unvaccinated persons, but only for the first few days. After 5 days or so, the viral loads in the vaccinated person start to quickly drop whereas those in the unvaccinated person persist. This key set of observations is important for several reasons relating to vaccinated persons serving as vectors for spread (see below).
5. This pandemic, round 2 is primarily being observed in younger patients than in round 1. Our Children's hospitals are even already filling up or full. Because of the Delta viral dynamics, it is much more capable of causing severe disease in a larger swath of the population. You spew enough of any human pathogen on someone without immunity, and it's not going to end well. This sets up very poorly for the beginning of the school year, and it scares me. Check that...it is actually terrifying. I sure hope we have vaccines for the 5-11 year olds soon...
6. Speaking of vaccines...are they working? YES! They are absolutely doing their expected job. We know a lot about vaccines for upper respiratory viruses, as we have been giving the population one every year for decades (influenza). To explain all of this, I need to provide some biological context. When you get a vaccine as a 'shot', the 'antigen' in the vaccine leads to formation of an antibody response. You probably knew that. What's important, though, is that it primarily leads to a specific IgG response. That's the antibody type that circulates around in really high numbers in the blood, is located some in tissues and is more easily detectable by blood tests, etc. What that shot does NOT do is produce an IgA antibody response to the virus at the surface of the throat mucosa. That's the antibody type that could prevent the virus from ever binding in the first place. As such, in a vaccinated person, the virus can still attach like it's about to break into the house, but it doesn't realize that there is an armed homeowner on the other side of the door. When that virus is detected, the IgG beats it up and clears it before the person gets very ill (or ill at all). (Sidebar: Anyone ever had their kid (or themselves) get the 'Flumist' vaccine? Idea there is to introduce the antigens at the surface of the throat mucosa leading to that IgA response that will prevent infection from happening at all. Sounds good and still has a place, but it isn't quite as effective overall as the shot.)
7. The SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are designed to prevent disease/death through that IgG response (though it does also reduce infections somewhat). How good are the vaccines at doing all of this with Delta? CDC released data just this week addressing that very question. Punchline: They're remarkably good! The vaccine shows an 8-fold reduction in the development of any symptomatic disease secondary to Delta. For hospitalization, it is a 25-fold reduction. That's 25X! Remarkable. For death, it is also 25X! This is a very effective pharmaceutical class when looking at overall efficacy toward the intended/expected purpose. When looking at the very tiny side effect profile, I'd personally consider it one of the best overall pharmaceuticals on the market in any class of drugs.
8. So, you're vaccinated? First of all, a sincere, heart-felt thank you! But you may now ask, so why do I again need to wear a mask? We talked about disease, hospitalizations and death in 7. above, but what about infections themselves? Vaccine is now estimated to provide a 3X reduction in infection. For reasons that I tried to make clear above, it isn't surprising that the vaccine is less effective at preventing infection vs preventing disease. We are indeed seeing detectable virus, at high levels, in asymptomatic, vaccinated persons when we test them prior to procedures, etc. We have a few that are mildly symptomatic, too. While we now understand that the virus fades from the back of the throat pretty quickly in a vaccinated person, we also know that an infected, vaccinated person can transmit this very infectious virus to others for at least a couple of days. So, as before, you are being asked to wear a mask to primarily protect others. We need you again to interrupt the transmission cycle of the virus, as you don't know when you might be infectious. The vaccine alone cannot interrupt this cycle when there is a lot of virus in the community within unprotected persons.
9. What's next? Living in Iowa, I see the tsunami wave on the horizon. It's typical for respiratory viruses to begin in the southern US (where it is hot and everyone goes indoors to escape the heat) and then creep north to affect those areas when it gets colder (and people go inside because it's getting colder). It's definitely coming to Iowa and areas in the northern half of the US. If you live in those northern areas and are not vaccinated, it is not too late, but it's getting damn close. It's also time to start wearing masks in public again (ugh...I hate it, too). For areas like AR, MO, LA, FL, etc, the tsunami is already on your shores. If you weren't already off the beach, you might be in trouble. However, if you are there and haven't yet been affected, run like hell to higher ground (get vaccinated, wear a mask). I beg of you, please observe that wave and don't ignore it. I have zero political agenda (hate politics). I'm just a nerdy scientist and physician who loves you all, and I certainly don't want to see a mass of my friends grieving (or dead) because I didn't yell loud enough to get you and your families off that beach. So, Run! (to your pharmacy...driving is allowed). You don't want any part of this thing w/o vaccine on board.
I know this is a bit long, but I thought it had a ton of great information in it. Posted to FB by a good friend.
From J. Stacey Klutts, Special Assistant to the National Director of Pathology and Lab Medicine for the VA system:
It's been a while since I weighed in on anything related to SARS-CoV-2/COVID. I see many posts describing the 'on the ground' impact of the Delta variant with desperate pleas for people to get vaccinated and wear masks. I couldn't agree more with these sentiments, but I will take a bit of a different educational approach. I am in a unique position to report on what is going on with the virus itself and how it interacts with the vaccines. I'm currently the Special Assistant to the National Director of Pathology and Lab Medicine for the entire VA system, with a specific role in advising on elements of COVID testing for the system. As such, I have a front row seat to all of the latest data, as we have to use those data in making our national policy decisions. So, here are a few important points about the Delta variant that may be of acute interest along with some education and salient points about the vaccines. I'll do my best to stitch this all together to where it makes some sense:
1. The Delta variant (lineage B.1.617.2) has a particular collection of mutations in the spike protein (that knob-like projection you see in renderings of the virus) that make it extremely effective in attaching to human cells and gaining entry. If the original CoV-2 strains were covered in syrup, this variant is covered in ultra-fast drying Gorilla Super Glue (industrial strength).
2. There are two recent publications which demonstrate that the viral loads in the back of the throats of infected patients are 1000X higher with Delta variant than with previous variants. I can tell you from data in my own labs, that is absolutely true! We are seeing viral signals we NEVER saw last year using the exact same assays.
3. This much higher load PLUS the ultra-'stickiness' of the Delta strains for adhering to human cells makes it remarkably more infectious than previous strains. You may have heard of R0 (Read: R naught) which is, in a nutshell, the expected number of persons to which an infected person would be expected to transmit the virus. Early versions of the virus had a 2 to 2.5 R0 value. So one infected person would infect two or so people on average. Delta has an R0 of about 8! In the infectious disease world, that's almost unheard of. Chickenpox and Measles are about all we have ever seen that spread that efficiently from human to human. This changes the story line completely from earlier in the pandemic and makes this surge, in many ways, like a completely different pandemic event.
4. There is another recent publication out of Singapore with data that confirms something we suspected. I will explain more about the 'why' on this below when I talk about vaccines, but the gist is this: The viral loads in the throats of vaccinated persons who become infected with Delta (more about that below) rises at identical rates as in unvaccinated persons, but only for the first few days. After 5 days or so, the viral loads in the vaccinated person start to quickly drop whereas those in the unvaccinated person persist. This key set of observations is important for several reasons relating to vaccinated persons serving as vectors for spread (see below).
5. This pandemic, round 2 is primarily being observed in younger patients than in round 1. Our Children's hospitals are even already filling up or full. Because of the Delta viral dynamics, it is much more capable of causing severe disease in a larger swath of the population. You spew enough of any human pathogen on someone without immunity, and it's not going to end well. This sets up very poorly for the beginning of the school year, and it scares me. Check that...it is actually terrifying. I sure hope we have vaccines for the 5-11 year olds soon...
6. Speaking of vaccines...are they working? YES! They are absolutely doing their expected job. We know a lot about vaccines for upper respiratory viruses, as we have been giving the population one every year for decades (influenza). To explain all of this, I need to provide some biological context. When you get a vaccine as a 'shot', the 'antigen' in the vaccine leads to formation of an antibody response. You probably knew that. What's important, though, is that it primarily leads to a specific IgG response. That's the antibody type that circulates around in really high numbers in the blood, is located some in tissues and is more easily detectable by blood tests, etc. What that shot does NOT do is produce an IgA antibody response to the virus at the surface of the throat mucosa. That's the antibody type that could prevent the virus from ever binding in the first place. As such, in a vaccinated person, the virus can still attach like it's about to break into the house, but it doesn't realize that there is an armed homeowner on the other side of the door. When that virus is detected, the IgG beats it up and clears it before the person gets very ill (or ill at all). (Sidebar: Anyone ever had their kid (or themselves) get the 'Flumist' vaccine? Idea there is to introduce the antigens at the surface of the throat mucosa leading to that IgA response that will prevent infection from happening at all. Sounds good and still has a place, but it isn't quite as effective overall as the shot.)
7. The SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are designed to prevent disease/death through that IgG response (though it does also reduce infections somewhat). How good are the vaccines at doing all of this with Delta? CDC released data just this week addressing that very question. Punchline: They're remarkably good! The vaccine shows an 8-fold reduction in the development of any symptomatic disease secondary to Delta. For hospitalization, it is a 25-fold reduction. That's 25X! Remarkable. For death, it is also 25X! This is a very effective pharmaceutical class when looking at overall efficacy toward the intended/expected purpose. When looking at the very tiny side effect profile, I'd personally consider it one of the best overall pharmaceuticals on the market in any class of drugs.
8. So, you're vaccinated? First of all, a sincere, heart-felt thank you! But you may now ask, so why do I again need to wear a mask? We talked about disease, hospitalizations and death in 7. above, but what about infections themselves? Vaccine is now estimated to provide a 3X reduction in infection. For reasons that I tried to make clear above, it isn't surprising that the vaccine is less effective at preventing infection vs preventing disease. We are indeed seeing detectable virus, at high levels, in asymptomatic, vaccinated persons when we test them prior to procedures, etc. We have a few that are mildly symptomatic, too. While we now understand that the virus fades from the back of the throat pretty quickly in a vaccinated person, we also know that an infected, vaccinated person can transmit this very infectious virus to others for at least a couple of days. So, as before, you are being asked to wear a mask to primarily protect others. We need you again to interrupt the transmission cycle of the virus, as you don't know when you might be infectious. The vaccine alone cannot interrupt this cycle when there is a lot of virus in the community within unprotected persons.
9. What's next? Living in Iowa, I see the tsunami wave on the horizon. It's typical for respiratory viruses to begin in the southern US (where it is hot and everyone goes indoors to escape the heat) and then creep north to affect those areas when it gets colder (and people go inside because it's getting colder). It's definitely coming to Iowa and areas in the northern half of the US. If you live in those northern areas and are not vaccinated, it is not too late, but it's getting damn close. It's also time to start wearing masks in public again (ugh...I hate it, too). For areas like AR, MO, LA, FL, etc, the tsunami is already on your shores. If you weren't already off the beach, you might be in trouble. However, if you are there and haven't yet been affected, run like hell to higher ground (get vaccinated, wear a mask). I beg of you, please observe that wave and don't ignore it. I have zero political agenda (hate politics). I'm just a nerdy scientist and physician who loves you all, and I certainly don't want to see a mass of my friends grieving (or dead) because I didn't yell loud enough to get you and your families off that beach. So, Run! (to your pharmacy...driving is allowed). You don't want any part of this thing w/o vaccine on board.
Beachliz - what did your "weird" rash look like? We're both vaccinated but my husband has a lingering rash on his arm.
It was actually pretty large, about three or four inches in diameter. It was red and a bit bumpy. Didn't itch, ooze, or bother me, but you could still see remnants of it for quite a few months. Never had anything like it before.
Not to worry, I copy and paste and it is just one more number. Like I said, I actually had it all written up and ready to send on Friday and said 'nah no one will care but me." I am happy to do it. From all that I have heard from a couple of Beebe people most are non vax'd here. I actually emailed the governors office and the DPH and suggested that they add the number of vax'd or non vax'd to the daily stats. I got a perfunctory note back from DPH that was a form letter and essentially had no connection at all to what I wrote. The gov's office was a bit more personal and said they would pass the suggestion along. I am going to see if I can reach out to the Cape Gazette or Delaware online via my contacts and see if there is a news conference from Carney if someone will ask that question for me.
I had the same hesitation in posting the data - or that everyone else saw it eons ago. Thanks for sharing the information learned from some Beebe people. I recall that's what was happening initially, but as we hear more about breakthrough cases, I didn't know if that might have changed. Good luck with getting someone to ask the question for you - and know that your efforts with that and posting the daily #'s is greatly appreciated.
I had the same hesitation in posting the data - or that everyone else saw it eons ago. Thanks for sharing the information learned from some Beebe people. I recall that's what was happening initially, but as we hear more about breakthrough cases, I didn't know if that might have changed. Good luck with getting someone to ask the question for you - and know that your efforts with that and posting the daily #'s is greatly appreciated.
Thanks, I know many of the regulars appreciate the effort and I do think it is important to put it out there. I am putting on my big girl panties and going to Surf Bagel tomorrow to hear the Troop 7 officer speak. Hoping against hope it is outside but.......If I hear anything useful I will post that too.
Brace Yourself: I've just got to Vent - I am fully vaccinated, and will be in line promptly to receive a booster shot. I social distance (6' apart), and I wear a mask when I'm required to do so. I have 2 gallons of sanitizer left, out of the 5 gallons I purchased last year. I follow all CDC guidelines, for what it's worth, because nobody, and I mean NOBODY, seems to stick to the same story regarding this virus and how to prevent from getting it, because nobody knows. One mask, two masks, no bandanas, no plastic shields, and OH.....the cloth masks are useless, now, I hear! and, the stats regarding this virus are mixed, depending upon where we look for information. Decision Time: When the masks came off, I went back to my hair salon, I now attend town meetings with a mask, we sit 6' apart, and we are constantly spraying ourselves with sanitizer. We eat out often, our children come to visit, we go to casinos, enjoy town events, and we're buying our Fall and Winter tickets to see our favorite bands and shows. My work includes visiting Veterans' homes every day, up and down the State of Delaware, I wear the useless cloth mask, and so do the Veterans. I keep a 6' distance, wear throw-away plastic gloves, I spray myself with sanitizer, I do not touch light switches, doors, or anything in the houses that I visit in regard to my work requirements. My job is serving our valued Veterans, and I will continue doing my job. At 81 years old, I'm not willing to give up what's left of my life, because a bunch of politicians are using this virus to jockey for positions. We're (husband and I) are doing the best we can to protect ourselves, and others. God forbid, if we acquire the COVID virus. But we're doing our best, and what we are willing to do. I'm just disgusted and tired of this whole political, wish-washy thing, probably like everybody else. Done.
RDLR - I understand and feel your frustration. I really do. You are brave to go out and about. We on the other hand have been doing the absolute minimum. As much as we would like to eat out, visit casinos, go shopping, travel, we have not done any of that at all since the start of this.
Yes, everything is politicized. I see only what is right and what is wrong and everything going on stinks. I can only suggest to search for what is really happening here and abroad and to use that information to best take care of your family.
I completely see where you are coming from at your age, that you want to enjoy life. Please please do it carefully and safely.
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and, the stats regarding this virus are mixed, depending upon where we look for information. Decision Time: When the masks came off, I went back to my hair salon, I now attend town meetings with a mask, we sit 6' apart, and we are constantly spraying ourselves with sanitizer. We eat out often, our children come to visit, we go to casinos, enjoy town events, and we're buying our Fall and Winter tickets to see our favorite bands and shows. My work includes visiting Veterans' homes every day, up and down the State of Delaware, I wear the useless cloth mask, and so do the Veterans. I keep a 6' distance, wear throw-away plastic gloves, I spray myself with sanitizer, I do not touch light switches, doors, or anything in the houses that I visit in regard to my work requirements. My job is serving our valued Veterans, and I will continue doing my job. At 81 years old, I'm not willing to give up what's left of my life, because a bunch of politicians are using this virus to jockey for positions. We're (husband and I) are doing the best we can to protect ourselves, and others. God forbid, if we acquire the COVID virus. But we're doing our best, and what we are willing to do. I'm just disgusted and tired of this whole political, wish-washy thing, probably like everybody else. Done.
