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"I don't understand. But I don't care, so it works out."
(set 5 days ago)
35,621 posts, read 17,953,728 times
Reputation: 50641
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frostnip
Ketchikan, as a community, is "remote" in the sense that it's not on the road system and it's surrounded by wilderness. It is, however, a modern town with modern amenities, not some rugged frontier outpost. The area this incident occurred in was not "remote" relative to town, but it also wouldn't be a high traffic area, particularly this time of year.
Alaska is under shelter in place orders, but we're not prohibited from spending time outside as long as social distancing is practiced.
The average Alaskan probably knows more about wilderness survival than the average person elsewhere in the US, but not every Alaskan does, and even knowing the right things to do doesn't always stop people from making bad decisions in high stress situations. It's also pretty easy to make a small mistake that snowballs into a large mistake when you are off by yourself in the woods.
This is the trooper dispatch report, which I think is a little more coherent than some of the news stories out there about this case:
Personally, I think any attempts to guess whether this was an honest mistake, neglectful, or something more criminal are just that: guesses. I can easily envision a plausible, innocent scenario where a mom and kid with cabin fever go out to stretch their legs and end up biting off more than they can chew. I can also imagine any number of other scenarios. There's no way of knowing without more information, which presumably the troopers and the medical examiners are exploring currently.
Can the height and weight given in that article possibly be correct? In children, it's so often wrong when there's a missing child.
His height, at 4'2" and 70 pounds would make him nearly twice as heavy as an average 5 year old that height. Sounds like underlying health issue, if true. The pic on his missing poster with him in the red jacket doesn't look anywhere near that heavy, although his earlier childhood pictures do.
To hopefully clear up the confusion about the trail and its length:
Quote:
What’s nice about the Lunch Creek Trail is that it is all the way out north where the road dead-ends and is absent of homes and motorized traffic, except for the turn-off of Settler’s Cove Campground, where Lunch Creek pours into the Tongass Narrows. The Lunch Creek trailhead swings to the right. If one goes left, the trail will lead them to a waterfall platform and down to the ocean and will join the Lunch Falls Trail, if taken to the right, which is approximately a 0.5-mile loop. But Lunch Creek Trail follows east along Lunch Creek up a ladder of many beautiful waterfalls and past some of Ketchikan’s largest western red cedar, hemlock, and Sitka spruce.
Once the stairs are climbed not far into the hike, the gravel trail levels out for a while as it traverses land owned by the Alaska State Parks. About a mile in, the trail turns to dirt, roots, and stones when entering the Tongass National Forest at a nice sandy river bend where a sign reminds us that we are in bear country.
So it would seem that if you go one direction, you get an easy .5 mile hike. If you go the other, it's an almost five mile hike to the end of the trail. Hence the varying figures. 0.5 miles is the loop, 5 miles is to the end of the trail, and 10 miles is to the end of the trail and back. I assume the 8.5 figure is also there and back, but starting from one trailhead rather than the other - there appears to be a trailhead at the campground, and one directly off the highway.
Quote:
There are two places to access the trail: 1) Just before the end of the road, turn left into Settlers Cove Campground and follow the road down to the campground loop, bear right, and park in a small parking lot on the right across from the pit toilets. 2) Park at the end of Tongass Hwy where the Lunch Creek Trail begins and where you can also access the Lunch Falls Trail.
The trailhead is off a paved, maintained road, so it's not a weird place to go, but it's also a sufficiently low-traffic area that it's not strange they wouldn't have run into other people, especially now when the campground is unlikely to see much use.
The part where they became lost about 1000 miles from the end of the trail. I hadn't seen anything indicating where on this trail they got lost, and there seems to be a range from a half mile loop to an over 8 mile straight shot, depending on what particular part of the trail they chose to take.
Not 1,000 miles, 1,000 feet from the trail. I never said anything about 1,000 miles. The mother was found three miles up the trail, the buy was found beyond that, near the end of the trail, 1,000 feet off the trail.
Quote:
Kiffer said the boy was located about 1,000 feet from the trail, within the primary search area that had been established on Friday, and farther up the trail from where Treat had been found.
Status:
"I don't understand. But I don't care, so it works out."
(set 5 days ago)
35,621 posts, read 17,953,728 times
Reputation: 50641
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cloudy Dayz
Not 1,000 miles, 1,000 feet from the trail. I never said anything about 1,000 miles. The mother was found three miles up the trail, the buy was found beyond that, near the end of the trail, 1,000 feet off the trail.
Can the height and weight given in that article possibly be correct? In children, it's so often wrong when there's a missing child.
His height, at 4'2" and 70 pounds would make him nearly twice as heavy as an average 5 year old that height. Sounds like underlying health issue, if true. The pic on his missing poster with him in the red jacket doesn't look anywhere near that heavy, although his earlier childhood pictures do.
Well, a 50 inch 5 year old would be in the 99th percentile for height for his age. So either he's a really big kid or they were just guesstimating.
Status:
"I don't understand. But I don't care, so it works out."
(set 5 days ago)
35,621 posts, read 17,953,728 times
Reputation: 50641
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frostnip
Well, a 50 inch 5 year old would be in the 99th percentile for height for his age. So either he's a really big kid or they were just guesstimating.
Hmmm. That's not what I'm finding. I'm finding he's average height, but the weight given is, literally, "off the charts" heavy.
But again, they may have pulled that weight out of thin air, which does seem to happen in missing children cases. In cases where they have no idea the size of the child, saying "average size for his age" or "very small for his age" would be more appropriate.
So it would seem that if you go one direction, you get an easy .5 mile hike. If you go the other, it's an almost five mile hike to the end of the trail. Hence the varying figures. 0.5 miles is the loop, 5 miles is to the end of the trail, and 10 miles is to the end of the trail and back. I assume the 8.5 figure is also there and back, but starting from one trailhead rather than the other - there appears to be a trailhead at the campground, and one directly off the highway.
The trailhead is off a paved, maintained road, so it's not a weird place to go, but it's also a sufficiently low-traffic area that it's not strange they wouldn't have run into other people, especially now when the campground is unlikely to see much use.
Exactly, but for the record, according to Google Maps, it's actually 18.2 miles by road from Ketchikan to the trailhead. So they were a 18.2 mile drive from town to the end of the road. Then about a five mile hike to the end of the trail, then about 1000 feet off trail. For anybody who can't figure it out, that is serious backcountry hiking.
Exactly, but for the record, according to Google Maps, it's actually 18.2 miles by road from Ketchikan to the trailhead. So they were a 18.2 mile drive from town to the end of the road. Then about a five mile hike to the end of the trail, then about 1000 feet off trail. For anybody who can't figure it out, that is serious backcountry hiking.
I would have full gear for that. As in pack, heat supply, tent, bag, food, water, gps, sat phone, etc. Plus a float plan to someone.
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