[gmdealerguy]

Blizzard on the 7th?? How? Look at this link:
AccuWeather.com - Derby, CT Weather Details: Local Derby Weather Forecast (http://www.accuweather.com/us/ct/derby/06418/forecast-details.asp?fday=6 - broken link)

No mention of snow and it will be(for now) 49 degrees......Why wouldn't they at least show any threat of snow?? Same with The Weather Channel......

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by gmdealerguy

Blizzard on the 7th?? How? Look at this link:
AccuWeather.com - Derby, CT Weather Details: Local Derby Weather Forecast (http://www.accuweather.com/us/ct/derby/06418/forecast-details.asp?fday=6 - broken link)

No mention of snow and it will be(for now) 49 degrees......Why wouldn't they at least show any threat of snow?? Same with The Weather Channel......

There's probably like 3 models out of 5 saying rain, but one of the other two models saying big snow. Forecasts can change quickly in either direction with a change of track.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by gmdealerguy

Blizzard on the 7th?? How? Look at this link:
AccuWeather.com - Derby, CT Weather Details: Local Derby Weather Forecast (http://www.accuweather.com/us/ct/derby/06418/forecast-details.asp?fday=6 - broken link)

No mention of snow and it will be(for now) 49 degrees......Why wouldn't they at least show any threat of snow?? Same with The Weather Channel......

I know, it baffles me each time. Even with the post Christmas blizzard it was showing sunny 10 days before. I understand it's only "potential" this far out but Why cant they at least put "Potentially Stormy Weather" ? They prefer to keep it cloudy or sunny and be wrong then put storm and be wrong.

Anyway - I'll have more tonight..

[Cambium]

March 7 Storm Update:

There's only one model that goes beyond a 10 day potential.
2 models from 8 days out and then the rest start at 7 days out.

Right now One model shows snowstorm. The other model which just came into play shows Rain. The model that shows rain shows the low going from the south into the Great Lakes. DeJaVu of last storm which it was totally wrong. The low actually went right over the coastline(slightly west).

To reiterate:
A. 8-14 days we look at time frame & to see if a storm is popping up(potential)
B. 6-8 days we look at temperature, trend, and timeline
C. 4-6 days we look at temperature, trend, and precip amount
D. 0-3 days we look at track and precip

Without A we dont have B, C, or D. lol

We have A with March 7th. Now its a matter of watching the trending and temps.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

March 7 Storm Update:

There's only one model that goes beyond a 10 day potential.
2 models from 8 days out and then the rest start at 7 days out.

Right now One model shows snowstorm. The other model which just came into play shows Rain. The model that shows rain shows the low going from the south into the Great Lakes. DeJaVu of last storm which it was totally wrong. The low actually went right over the coastline(slightly west).

To reiterate:
A. 8-14 days we look at time frame & to see if a storm is popping up(potential)
B. 6-8 days we look at temperature, trend, and timeline
C. 4-6 days we look at temperature, trend, and precip amount
D. 0-3 days we look at track and precip

Without A we dont have B, C, or D. lol

We have A with March 7th. Now its a matter of watching the trending and temps.

The only thing I'll say is the trend in recent years has been for March to be less snowy than the historical record. Last year, despite all the snow in February, only a trace fell in March in Central Park and Hartford and just 0.1" in Bridgeport. And the 2000s was the first decade that Central Park had THREE Marches with just a trace (no snow period in March is actually quite rare, at the Park it last happened in 1903.....note though that they count March 2010 since Dec 2009 is part of the 2000s and not the 2010s). 2002-03 was another year that had heavy December and February snow, but just 3" of March snow.

When there was above average March snow for the month (more than about 5" total, though for Hartford that average is a bit more) in recent years, it either:

1) Occurred at the very beginning of the month (i.e. in 2009 when 8-10" fell across the whole tri-state area on March 1-2)

2) There was well above normal snow year in EVERY month of the winter (like in 1993- 94 or the record 1995-96 winter), both those winters even had snow in April (though the 2002-03 winter above did as well). This winter had below normal snow in Feb. and last winter had below normal snow in January.

This would bet against March 7th being anything more than an "advisory level" snow event, but exceptions do occur, the most famous being the March 1993 "superstorm", which occurred in an otherwise somewhat less snowy than normal winter.

Note that this trend probably doesn't apply as well (but still does to some degree) north of I-84 and even to some extent north of the Merritt/Wilbur Cross as March is a month where you more often than earlier in the winter have storms where the rain/snow line falls somewhere across CT.

[foxywench]

well last nights snow gave up barley a dusting here in 06801

[Cambium]

Looks like Heavy Rain coming through tomorrow and then a couple hour break before more heavy rain Tomorrow Night/Tuesday morning.. Thunderstorms are very possible in the afternoon.. Temps should stay above 30 for next 48hrs.

We should get more rain tomorrow than last rainstorm.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by foxywench

well last nights snow gave up barley a dusting here in 06801

Yeap. February 2011: 5.5". February 2010. 24".

MA got 4" of snow this morning..

[htfdcolt]

So what happened with the temps today? Was a bit surprised with the extent of the freezing rain in the Hartford area this morning. Still only 35 F...was supposed to get to 50 today?!

[Cambium]

March 7 Storm Update. Models trending warmer but does show the storm riding right on the cold front... Stay tuned.