[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by witnessachange

there is no way there is going to be rain.. are you watching the weather in florida??? its way to cold and the water temperature is cold.. all the arctic air is being pulled into this storm.. I honestly predict that where I live I will get a foot and a half of snow... the storms tracking farther north than expected.. even torrington is getting 8-12

Don’t take my word for it…listen to the National Weather Service…(I underlined).


000
FXUS61 KOKX 091803
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
103 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2010


.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DEEP CLOSED MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW BARRELS ACROSS OHIO VALLEY TO A POINT SOUTH OF CWA. LOW PRESSURE FORMS NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST AND WILL DEEPEN OFF THE VA CST EARLY WED. THE LOW THEN TRACKS NEAR
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK WED EVENING AS IT DEEPENS RAPIDLY.
GFS/UKMET TRACK FURTHER SOUTH ACCEPTED AS IT SEEMS TO CORRELATE
WELL WITH UPPER PATTERN.

WILL INCREASE POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT. EXPECT
SNOW TO MOVE ACROSS NYC METRO/NERN NJ AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN
SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SERN CT MAY NOT SEE
MUCH SNOWFALL UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

AS THE STACKED LOW APPROACHES AND PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH...
SNOW WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY. COULD SEE SOME MIXING OF SLEET
AND RAIN DEPENDING OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS...AND H8-H9 WARMING
ACROSS LI. ANY MIXING WILL KEEP AMOUNTS DOWN JUST A BIT.

I think what is confusing you… is that you assume that cold air is a constant – it’s not. Low pressure wraps air in a counterclokwise direction. If low pressure were centered 150-miles out in the Atlantic southeast of Long Island…the cold air is pulled south. If the low is right over Connecticut (or closer to CT), warm is drawn in over the ocean, and mixing (rain) occures in southern CT. This is why rain occurs in winter storms more often in far southern Connecticut/Long Island. It is a precarious line the low must follow…too close mix cuts down on amounts…too far and main precip sheild stays off shore (falls over the ocean).

You can only hope that there is enough cold air in the mix to support the snow in the low gets close. ANY wind off the Atlantic (southerly) brings in warm air. Also, I 'm not sure what you mean by "the water is cold" Any temp of water above 32.1 F is above freezing. You can see by the SST map as of today…that 5 C (41 F) waters surround the immediate coastline of Long Island. The subtropical Gulf Stream is always less than 150 miles out to sea (39 N) in the Atlantic Ocean is off the Tri-State area. The waters are 14 C (55 F) to 15.5 C (60 F) even now in late winter. If theres a southelry folw for even a few hours...RAIN WILL MIX IN trust me (lol).

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by witnessachange

there is no way there is going to be rain.. are you watching the weather in florida??? its way to cold and the water temperature is cold.. all the arctic air is being pulled into this storm.. I honestly predict that where I live I will get a foot and a half of snow... the storms tracking farther north than expected.. even torrington is getting 8-12

It's all the track, there are even times when NYC, Philly and Boston gets snow and Cape Cod and SE MA get rain because the storm was offshore in the Mid-Atlantic but tracked west of Cape Cod (but east of Boston). That scenario is kind of rare, but it does happen.

My personal guess is a little snow in the morn, a lot in the afternoon, then maybe a short change to rain on the coast and 6-12" total. But we'll see.

[Stratford, Ct. Resident]

NWS is forecasting 10-16" for FFC:
National Weather Service Watch Warning Advisory Summary

[LINative]

It is now snowing here in Babylon, Long Island, a few minutes after ten. Thats about 2 to 5 hours earlier than the NOAA website said it would.

[kidyankee764]

I'm not looking forward to my drive into work tomorrow. I'm even less so looking forward to the ride home at 3:30.

[trishguard]

I have a feeling we won't see too much snow. It looks like it's changing over to rain, right now anyway.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by trishguard

I have a feeling we won't see too much snow. It looks like it's changing over to rain, right now anyway.

Looks like it's changing back with a vengeance.

[skel1977]

ok where the heck is the snow? Im sitting in hartford and the sun is out!

[wavehunter007]

Temp 31.9 F are rising here along the coast east of New Haven...and rain mixing in. I think that 12 inches is along shot at this point.

[andthentherewere3]

It's been snowing in upper FFC all morning. So far we have about 3".