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Old 03-16-2017, 12:20 PM
 
6,586 posts, read 4,970,443 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vandy-bound View Post
Exactly. Except no outside running for me. Can't risk slipping on something and getting injured two weeks out from a half.
Quote:
Originally Posted by RunD1987 View Post
End of March is a great time to run. Suppose to be thawing out of winter not starting winter. Thankfully got a lot of long runs in the week prior. Hoping towards the end of next week weather will warm up hoping to run up at White Memorial.
I'm sucking wind as a cyclist right now. Don't think I can get on the trails even with a fatty and the roads are too much of a mess to be there too. One of the parks sometimes plows a circle for walkers so I'll have to check that out later and see if I can do laps.

The temp is brutal out there! Sun feels great inside but not a thing outside. Nothing is melting on the deck and my driveway is a sheet of ice.

<edit> my thermometer read 36 when I left the house but feels like 25. I thought it was going to be in the low 40s today. When will the wind ever stop? Just last week I was marveling at wind that actually felt warm!

Last edited by WouldLoveTo; 03-16-2017 at 12:29 PM..

 
Old 03-16-2017, 12:25 PM
 
3,435 posts, read 3,943,622 times
Reputation: 1763
I hit 38 today and got some melting. But it still feels cold, especially with the wind. Feels like late Jan/early Feb out there.
 
Old 03-16-2017, 01:11 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,513 posts, read 75,277,900 times
Reputation: 16619
Good news is... No big rain storms or big warm surges so no major flooding.
Bad news is... not much melting going on and we are refreezing at night.


Good news is... Farmers and Garderners love the snowpack
Bad news is .... All that snow north of us could mean river flooding in April or May


Good news is ... I see light after next week with some warm days coming
Bad news is .. Its long range and little more snow coming Saturday




Did things trend colder next week? I thought low 40s for 1-2 days at least before the next arctic blast mid week. Now we gotta wait 8 days for 40s? Heat Wave next weekend? lol








 
Old 03-16-2017, 05:50 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,513 posts, read 75,277,900 times
Reputation: 16619
New GFS for Saturday-Sunday. Poor Forecasters. Do they buy this? Do they mention it? Do they change their forecasts? Do they believe the Euro instead which has less than 1" ?


Crazy. GFS has over 1/4" liquid falling in Danbury Euro has 0.05" liquid.

Total Snowfall for the Event




And here's the NAM model. WTF. Poor Forecasters. Glad I'm not one.


 
Old 03-16-2017, 06:49 PM
 
48 posts, read 37,453 times
Reputation: 56
Please Cam, please tell me it's a bust!
 
Old 03-17-2017, 03:05 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,513 posts, read 75,277,900 times
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Yup.. here we go again. Its better to keep on top of the models rather than NWS or forecasts.

Boom. Up they went. Lmfao

 
Old 03-17-2017, 04:01 AM
 
Location: Live in NY, work in CT
11,295 posts, read 18,882,521 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Yup.. here we go again. Its better to keep on top of the models rather than NWS or forecasts.

Boom. Up they went. Lmfao
It's interesting because the "at least this much" map has nothing for everyone and the "Max potential" map shows a general 7 to 9 inches

And we thought the last snow was hard to forecast......
 
Old 03-17-2017, 04:15 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,513 posts, read 75,277,900 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 7 Wishes View Post
It's interesting because the "at least this much" map has nothing for everyone and the "Max potential" map shows a general 7 to 9 inches

And we thought the last snow was hard to forecast......

LOL.. I think because its March they are having a hard time believing things. They are probably using that sun angle and warm ground BS. LOL


All joking aside, this one is tough too because of the specific setup that may/may not happen!


Quote:
National Weather Service New York NY
511 AM EDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Still some question as to where any bands of heavier precip may
set up, given the ECMWF taking a more southerly track and with
all models showing only a modest coupled upper jet Sat evening
and then lack of upper jet support later into Sat night. Not a
classic "Norlun instability trough" event, but these types of
interactions can still sometimes outperform expectations via
frontogenesis. NAM/GFS blended QPF adjusted slightly upward to
account for this, and also some SREF members, suggest some
potential for 6 inches or more of snow, mainly along the
coast, so will mention this potential in the HWO mainly for Long
Island, also for coastal CT and NYC, and follow trends in
guidance through the day on Friday before making any watch

This is what the latest NAM says. Coastal storm like 300 miles off shore and The heavier bands set up on Long Island. And because its over night I don't think PTYPE will be the issue.

So where those heavier bursts and bands set up can easily make the total snowfall over 3".


WHERE does it set up?? NOBODY KNOWS. So Potential is a lot due to these bands, Least is a little because there's not a lot of moisture with this system.

 
Old 03-17-2017, 04:47 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,513 posts, read 75,277,900 times
Reputation: 16619
Waking up to 4th day in a row with a 6"+ snowpack and 8 days in a row with snow on ground. And more coming. What month is this again?

March 17, 2017

 
Old 03-17-2017, 04:54 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,513 posts, read 75,277,900 times
Reputation: 16619
BTW ............. Hartford & Bridgeport are having their 9th snowiest March on record. More coming tomorrow.


Hartford needs 1.3" to make it a Top 5.


And note for the coast, 5 of the Top 10 came after Year 2000.





I wish we were able to get a Top 10 snowy December. Seems like its easier in March than December in recent years.
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