[mels]

Had one heck of a quick hail storm here. Yikes!

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Brian26

Wow! That was intense. 1/4 rain and crazy thunder and lighting in like 15 mins.

Exactly what happened here. 0.22" within 15 minutes and crazy lightning

[jp03]

Originally Posted by JMagliola

I just got in from an hour on roller blades, what an awesome afternoon... !! Hopefully the forecasters are wrong for the weekend too!!

Weather Channel has 1-3 inches 84 corridor Monday morning.

[RunD1987]

No hail hoping nothing coming up north here. Still warm out bit windy. Weather reports saying 52 cloudy tomorrow.

[Cambium]

Might as well keep adding
I need 3" more to hit 3 feet for the season.

[Cambium]

When was the last time we had a High Wind "Warning"?? Heads up guys


434 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT
SUNDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

* TIMING...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...TREES AND POWER LINES MAY BE DOWNED. THIS MAY LEAD
TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AND DIFFICULTY DRIVING HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES.

[Cambium]

5 Maps...relating to S.N.O.W


Here is what the models say in regards to accumulations. So Happy for Albany. They should get past double digits now for the season..


GFS model: 6-8" Northern CT. 1-3" down to coast.





Canadian Model. Nothing for coast (but snow still falls, just doesn't accumulate) and 1-4" north of Merritt.







Euro model: 3-5" north of Merritt.





NWS Forecast: 6-8" Litchfield Hills. 4-6" Northern CT. 1-4" CT Valley. 8-12" spots in the MA Berkshires.

[Cambium]

Absolutely incredible. We really haven't had anything interesting happen since the January Blizzard. This qualifies for Weather Nuts and Geeks to be in Awe about. Fascinating.

Posting entire discussion. I cannot single out 1 thing that's important. But will highlight something we do not see much of in April.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...

* STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE
* WIND ADVISORY / HIGH WIND WATCH POSTED
* INTENSE BURST OF SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS 1 TO 3 INCHES
* STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS

SNOW BURST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING INTO MIDDAY ACCOMPANIED WITH STRONG
TO DAMAGING WINDS. WILL BE AN UNPRECEDENTED RARE EVENT INCORPORATING
RAPID CYCLOGENESIS...INTENSE LIFT...AND ACCUMULATING SNOWS AS WELL
AS THE LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDERSNOW. SHOULD SEE IMPACTS TAPER DOWNWARD
LATE AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AFRAID MANY ARE GOING TO BE
CAUGHT OFF-GUARD WITH THE LATE SEASON SNOW. WILL HIT ON THE DETAILS
BELOW AS BEST AS POSSIBLE.

POTENT VORTEX OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION CYCLONICALLY DIGGING S
OF NEW ENGLAND INVOKES INTENSE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE S-SHORELINE.
THIS WHILE DRAGGING CONSIDERABLY COLDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION WITH
H85 TEMPERATURES FALLING -10 TO -15C NEAR RECORD BREAKING PER LOCAL
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. STRONG LOW TO MID FORCING ABOVE SURFACE INFLOW
AND BENT-BACK WARM FRONT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION REARWARD RESULTING
IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN BECOMING SUPER-ADIABATIC / UNSTABLE UP TO
H6 BENEATH THE TROPOPAUSE FOLD. ENSEMBLE CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILES
SHOWING THIS EVENT TO BE NEAR OR AT ALL-TIME HISTORICAL MINIMUMS...
IMPRESSIVELY ANOMALOUS.

TEMPERATURES / PRECIPITATION INTENSITY....CRITICAL WITH THIS EVENT
IS THE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE...AS
WELL AS 2M SURFACE TEMPERATURES. WILL DRIVE SUCH TEMPERATURES CLOSE
TO IF NOT AT THE WET-BULB DURING EXPECTED TIME-FRAME OF INTENSE
PRECIPITATION. INITIAL RAIN WHICH HAS INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AS
THE COLUMN BEGINS TO COOL TO COULD YIELD GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS. BRIEF BEFORE CHANGING OVER QUICKLY TO A INTENSE
SNOWFALL.

SNOWFALL...ALONG SHORES EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION ADJACENT
TO WARMER WATERS. LOW ELEVATIONS EXPECTING SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ON
ELEVATED / GRASSY SURFACES WITH WET ROADWAYS. AND FINALLY N/W AND
ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES THERE IS A GREATER
OPPORTUNITY AND MORE CONCERN FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION ON ALL SURFACES
WITH HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ATOP BERKSHIRES / WORCESTER HILLS.
SNOW EXPECTED TO OCCUR QUICKLY...IN A SHORT DURATION...ON THE ORDER
OF 1 TO 2 HOURS. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS 1 TO 3 INCHES AWAY FROM
THE COASTAL PLAINS.

THUNDERSNOW...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE INTENSE CONSIDERING THE SUPER-
ADIABATIC / UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES. BENEATH THE POTENT VORTEX YIELDING
RAPID CYCLOGENESIS...LOOKING AT LIFT OF 50 MICROBARS PER SECOND IN
SNOW GROWTH REGIONS. DEFINITELY A SIGNAL FOR THUNDERSNOW. WILL PUT
AN ISOLATED MENTION INTO THE FORECAST. INTENSE ENOUGH...WOULD EXPECT
SNOW ACCUMULATION ON A MAJORITY OF SURFACES...EVEN AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. COULD SEE 1 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. COMPLEX TO
FORECAST.

WINDS...INTENSE PRESSURE COUPLET YIELDING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT
H925 ACROSS NJ / DELMARVA EXTENDING ON UP ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND AS
THE STORM EXITS LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. WITH INCREDIBLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES...UNDOUBTEDLY A MAGNITUDE OF SUCH WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. 35 TO 55 MPH WINDS ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND N TO S
WITH 50 TO 70 MPH WINDS ACROSS RHODE ISLAND AS WELL AS E/SE MASS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER ALL S NEW ENGLAND.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON WHERE EXACTLY HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA WILL
BE MET. WENT WITH A WATCH OVER E/SE NEW ENGLAND.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT 7 DAYS

* TEMPERATURES - UNSEASONABLY COLD FOR EARLY APRIL SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN MODERATING LATE NEXT WEEK

* PRECIPITATION - ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY MONDAY ALONG WITH OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EASTERN MA TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE DRY TUE INTO
WED FOLLOWED BY WET WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK

SUNDAY NIGHT ... MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
WITH SNOW POSSIBLY BEGINNING BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CT AND MA. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WITH A VERY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH TEMP ANOMALIES AT 925
AND 850 ABOUT -2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS COLDER THAN CLIMO. THIS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 20S REGIONWIDE ALONG WITH A FEW
UPPER TEENS ACROSS NORTHWEST MA. NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE 30-
35 FOR EARLY APRIL.

MONDAY ... AS MENTIONED ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SPED UP ARRIVAL AND
DEPARTURE OF SNOW FROM FRONTAL WAVE. 00Z GFS IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THE GUID WITH SFC LOW TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...RESULTING
IN PTYPE ISSUES /RAIN & SNOW/ ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.
MEANWHILE REMAINDER OF GUID INCLUDING 00Z NAM/ECMWF/GEFS AND 12Z EPS
ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND COLDER. GIVEN TIME RANGE HERE AND SMALL
FRONTAL SCALE SYSTEM A MODEL BLEND IS LIKELY MOST SKILLFUL. THUS
WILL USE A BLEND APPROACH HERE. REGARDING QPF...00Z ECMWF/GFS/GEFS
AND 12Z EPS SUPPORT POTENTIAL QPF OF 0.20 TO 0.50 INCHES ACROSS THE
REGION. PRELIMINARY SNOW FORECAST VERY DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME RANGE
ESPECIALLY WITH SMALL FRONTAL WAVE IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL PTYPE
ISSUES. FURTHERMORE ACCUMULATING SNOW ON PAVED SURFACES IN APRIL SNOW
EVENTS /HIGH SUN ANGLE...WARM GROUND AND LONGER DAYS THAN NIGHTS/
HINGE ON INTENSITY OF QPF. IF INTENSITY IS LACKING MOST ACCUMULATION
IS CONFINED TO THE COLDER SURFACES/HIGHER TERRAIN AND SECONDARY
ROADS. JUST TOO EARLY FOR ANY INSIGHT WHERE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS
WOULD POTENTIALLY SETUP. STAY TUNED.

MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY ... VERY PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM SO A DRYING TREND
THIS PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER COASTAL PLYMOUTH
COUNTY...CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET WHERE NORTHEAST WINDS AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES LIKELY RESULT IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOW BANDS. THIS IS
COURTSEY OF VERY COLD AIR ADVECTING IN ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING
SURFACE WAVE. IN FACT THIS AIRMASS WILL BE JUST AS COLD IF NOT
COLDER THAN SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT/S AIRMASS WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -
15C 12Z TUE! OTHERWISE EXPECT A VERY CHILLY DAY TUE WITH MUCH OF THE
AREA DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHEAST MA AS MENTIONED ABOVE. VERY
BLUSTERY IN THE MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA WITH DEPARTING WAVE AND
1033 MB HIGH ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES.

[Brian26]

I can't wait for tonight. Such a rare setup. The big story is the wind. Sustained winds up to 40 mph.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN PRECIP AS THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL WAVE PULLS AWAY AND THE INTENSIFYING LOW AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT APPROACH. THIS SYSTEM IS BEING FUELED ALOFT BY INTENSE MID LEVEL DYNAMICS...INCLUDING A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND TROPOPAUSE FOLD...AND WITH MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES UP TO THE TROPOPAUSE AND AN ABSOLUTELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...IS LIKELY TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF RAIN/SNOW SQUALLS AS IT PASSES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH A QUICK 1-2 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED INLAND AND PERHAPS A COATING ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE COAST. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT THUNDER AS THESE SQUALLS PASS THROUGH. MORE IMPORTANTLY...THESE SQUALLS SHOULD HERALD A BRIEF BUT INTENSE PD OF STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS...SUSTAINED UP TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60-65 MPH FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS IDEAL COMBO OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FACTORS COMES TOGETHER...INCLUDING VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CORE OF LARGE SFC PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE DEPARTING/INTENSIFYING LOW MOVING RIGHT OVER THE CWA...AND STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. GFS EVEN SUGGESTS GUST POTENTIAL UP TO 70 MPH IN NYC METRO AND ALONG THE COAST.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY... *

STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE *
WIND ADVISORY / HIGH WIND WATCH POSTED *
INTENSE BURST OF SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS 1 TO 3 INCHES *
STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS

POTENT VORTEX OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION CYCLONICALLY DIGGING S OF NEW ENGLAND INVOKES INTENSE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE S-SHORELINE. THIS WHILE DRAGGING CONSIDERABLY COLDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION WITH H85 TEMPERATURES FALLING -10 TO -15C NEAR RECORD BREAKING PER LOCAL SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY.

ENSEMBLE CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILES SHOWING THIS EVENT TO BE NEAR OR AT ALL-TIME HISTORICAL MINIMUMS... IMPRESSIVELY ANOMALOUS.

[Cambium]

Hartford's Forecast... Looks like the Thundersnow would be tonight and early tomorrow morning.


Also.. If over 3 inches of snow falls, don't expect it to melt fast with highs in the 30s.
Sunny Tuesday so Tuesday it all disappears.