[Cambium]

Here's the temps on that gfs update for Wednesday March 5th morning with fresh snowpack on ground. Sick.

Not supported by anything else I believe so don't believe it.

-9 at BDL. 4 at BDR? That's gotta be near a March record

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Here's the temps on that gfs update for Wednesday March 5th morning with fresh snowpack on ground. Sick.

Not supported by anything else I believe so don't believe it.

-9 at BDL. 4 at BDR? That's gotta be near a March record

Not buying it.....Central Park has never been subzero in March and the last time it was even below 10 degrees in March there was in 1967 (I said 1980 in an earlier post but found out it was exactly 10 degrees on the day in question).

I'm betting low teens around NYC and high single numbers elsewhere, that's what it was right after the 1993 blizzard and again after a major March snowstorm in 1996.

Right now huge differences in a short distance this morning......Central Park 21, White Plains 10, Bridgeport 15 and Danbury 1!

[Cambium]

10-25° Below normal region almost country wide

No wind so it doesn't feel as colder than the temps are showing. But it's cold out there!

NWS Mesonet Temps across CT.

Pretty much single digits everywhere except the immediate coast. -3° in Colebrook

[mels]

The weather guy on WTIC this morning is claiming snow Sunday night into Monday, snow all day Monday, with the potential for 6 inches or more. I know he qualified it with the word "potential" thrown in there, but isn't it a bit early to be throwing out numbers? Couldn't this storm still very much not happen or under-perform?

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by mels

The weather guy on WTIC this morning is claiming snow Sunday night into Monday, snow all day Monday, with the potential for 6 inches or more. I know he qualified it with the word "potential" thrown in there, but isn't it a bit early to be throwing that out there? Couldn't this storm still very much not happen or under-perform?

That is EXACTLY my thoughts in bold. I just sent a text with those exact words. I think it starts Sunday night. Heavy Monday. Clears Tuesday morning. 6"+ likely.

And yes... could easily underperform or trend drier next couple days. But right now that's the consensus. High end is showing 10-14"

There's a big difference with this setup.. Let me explain with a graphic

So the system comes from the Pacific and is VERY wet as is. Add Gulf moisture into the mix and even some Atlantic moisture and we can get some heavy precip. Maybe even more than shown.

But we wont know the conditions of these things until we get closer. If there is no Gulf interaction (or less) then obviously this would be a non event IMO.

Or if the Pacific system isn't as robust as it's showing then we get less.



This isn't the typical storm we get, this is a front that sitting south of us and waves of low pressure keep riding along the front with added moisture. Moisture always rides along the front. So that's why there is potential for a lot of snow here. We would be on north side of front so that would mean snow.

[mels]

Thanks for the explanation, Cam!

[Cambium]

It was pretty impressive to see all models agree on March3-4 timeframe from 9+ days out. Now we're within 4 days so details are coming in.

Few words from NWS around: Hard to choose which words to bold there's so much goodies. Everyone being cautious still and so they should be until tomorrow.

Upton:

HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE COLDER CMC/GFS
SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THAT THE STORM IS 4-5 DAYS AWAY...HAVE KEPT
P-TYPES SIMPLE - RAIN...SNOW...OR RAIN AND SNOW AS TOO MUCH COULD
CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE STORM TO TRY TO PINPOINT
WHERE AND WHEN SLEET AND POSSIBLY EVEN FREEZING RAIN COULD COME
INTO PLAY.

EVEN WITH ALL THE UNCERTAINTY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL THE CWA FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE
HWO.

Boston:

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSES CONVERGE /PERHAPS PHASING/ AND
STRETCH THROUGH THE CONFLUENT AND PROGRESSIVE NEAR-ZONAL FLOW ALONG
THE SOUTHERN-PERIPHERY OF THE HUDSON BAY POLAR VORTEX. AN ELONGATED
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS INVOKED ALONG THE COLD FRONT NOW
STALLED SOUTH OF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE IN REGIONS OF BETTER
BAROCLINICITY RESULTING IN THE LIKELY SETUP OF A SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM.

AN OVER-RUNNING EVENT WITH A FRONT-END THUMP CENTERED AROUND MONDAY.
CONSIDERING THE TIGHTER CLUSTERING AND SIMILAR STRENGTH OF 27.0Z
GUIDANCE...INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF STRONG E/NE WINDS OFF THE COLDER
WATERS OF THE GULF OF MAINE COMBINED WITH AGEOSTROPHIC/ISALLOBARIC
UNDERCUTTING DRAINAGE FLOW SOUTHWARD WILL YIELD A VERY TIGHT NORTH-
TO-SOUTH GRADIENT OF SNOW-WINTRY MIX-RAIN. NORTH OF THIS GRADIENT
THE COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND H8-6 CONVERGENCE/F-GEN
FORCING OF THE WCB BENEATH STRONG REGIONS OF DIVERGENCE /RRQ OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL JET/ WILL YIELD DEEP-LAYER ASCENT THRU BETTER DENDRITIC
SNOW-GROWTH REGIONS GENERATING ROUGHLY WEST-TO-EAST MESOSCALE SNOW-
BANDING WITH 1-2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE
TO ALSO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL FRONT
AS WELL AS THE LONG-FETCH OF THE EASTERLY JET...WHETHER WE WILL
SEE LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE /PERHAPS AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS
WELL/.

SLIGHT WOBBLES IN BOTH LOW AND FRONTAL POSITIONS IN PROXIMITY TO THE SOUTH-COAST OF NEW ENGLAND CONTINUE TO EXIST. THERE ARE ALSO PERHAPS ISSUES BETWEEN THE INTERACTION/PHASING OF NORTHERN- AND SOUTHERN-STREAM IMPULSES.

AS A FINAL NOTE...CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE BASED ON THE 27.0Z GFS HAS
THE MEAN SNOWFALL BASED ON THE TOP ANALOGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN-TIER
OF NEW ENGLAND STRETCHING BACK INTO PA WITH A GREATER THAN 40
PERCENT CONFIDENCE-LEVEL OF SEEING 6 OR MORE INCHES. THIS ADDS TO
THE OVERALL FORECAST-CONFIDENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT WINTER-STORM
IMPACT.

[Cambium]

GFS12z comes in right now very cold and snow even for Long Island. Wow. Surface temps across CT during event in the teens and aloft near 20°.

Liquid Amounts: These locations are all snow on that run.

BDR: 0.85"
BDL: 0.56"
DXR: 0.81"
GON: 0.82"
BOS: 0.56"
ISP: 1.03"
NYC: 1.01"

Here's the snow total map. Remember based on 10:1 so almost double it up for us.

[Nightmary]

I always look to see if Cambium has created a special weather thread for upcoming storm to know if its going to be of any significance. When there is no other thread I figure the storm is probably not going to be to bad

So far no thread but then I have this feeling that might change tomorrow so I will check back then

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Nightmary

I always look to see if Cambium has created a special weather thread for upcoming storm to know if its going to be of any significance. When there is no other thread I figure the storm is probably not going to be to bad

So far no thread but then I have this feeling that might change tomorrow so I will check back then

lol. I don't want mods or others to be mad for opening so many threads this year. lol I might not do so unless it's 10"+ for sure which might not be known until Saturday/Sunday.

Thread or not... we might see some cancellations and disruptions Monday