[Cambium]

Originally Posted by htfdcolt

Cam--what's it looking like for Hartford area in the Wed storm? any possibility of changeover or the profiles look like all frozen?

Everything coming in colder now so chances higher of all frozen stuff.

NWS Albany snowfall total forecast is out. 8-10" for Litchfield County now till Wed evening.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Everything coming in colder now so chances higher of all frozen stuff.

NWS Albany snowfall total forecast is out. 8-10" for Litchfield County now till Wed evening.

So ... I'm not one for long term forecasting, BUT .. I would watch next weekends storm real close..it could be a doozy. Could one of those bombs that explodes off the Jersey coast with an east west motion to the snow bands....

Too far out but..

[Cambium]

The detail what I'm showing can change even the day of... but lets take a look at 2 locations from the latest GFS.

GFS12z Sounding for Hartford and Bridgeport for 10am Wed.

Hartford at this hour shows all levels of the atmosphere below freezing. Enough for snow to fall to the surface and heavy because the air is saturated all the way to 18,000 feet!

Bridgeport on the other hand... It's below freezing until about 7,000 feet then drops below freezing for a small layer at 2000 feet and the actual surface it says its just above 32. That looks like rain/ice mix but not freezing at the surface on contact since its above freezing.

A good case to make looking at this... a track shift of just 10-50 miles means the world in what falls!

[Mixum]

well finally good news!!! this warm up was killing me.....

[Tubeworm]

This is for Monday... new snow map....

NWS New York

Storm Total Snow Forecast:


Precipitation Forecast:
Liquid Equivalent (Rain + melted Snow + melted Ice)



Hazardous Weather Outlook:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
953 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A QUICK MOVING STORM SYSTEM...PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND ON MONDAY...WILL PRODUCE A ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE PRECIPITATION LIKELY
WILL BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX OR EVEN ALL RAIN ACROSS NEW YORK CITY
AND LONG ISLAND LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
MONDAY MORNING.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL REACHING WARNING LEVELS ON
MONDAY. MORE LIKELY IS A SNOW FALL IN THE ADVISORY RANGE. THERE IS
ALSO A SMALL CHANCE THAT LITTLE OR NO SNOW WILL FALL ON THE AREA.

IN ADDITION...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE WESTERN FLANKS
OF THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND PASS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
EVENT...MOST OF WHICH COULD FALL SNOW...SLEET AND/OR FREEZING
RAIN.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Cambium

The detail what I'm showing can change even the day of... but lets take a look at 2 locations from the latest GFS.

GFS12z Sounding for Hartford and Bridgeport for 10am Wed.

Hartford at this hour shows all levels of the atmosphere below freezing. Enough for snow to fall to the surface and heavy because the air is saturated all the way to 18,000 feet!

Bridgeport on the other hand... It's below freezing until about 7,000 feet then drops below freezing for a small layer at 2000 feet and the actual surface it says its just above 32. That looks like rain/ice mix but not freezing at the surface on contact since its above freezing.

A good case to make looking at this... a track shift of just 10-50 miles means the world in what falls!

Wow hit 50 today. Going to go for a nice pre-Super Bowl walk and enjoy it.

[mikelizard860]

Big GAP between nws ny and nws boston on forecast for monday.

NWS NY just increased their snowfall forecast for the monday event. They are forecasting 2-4 inches of northern middlesex county, while nws boston is saying no accumulation 5 miles away in southern hartford county.

There is high uncertainty for monday. They will NOT know until it starts because a track of 20 miles one way with the low will mean the difference between 2-4 inches or nothing.

There is also high uncertainy with precip types for tues/wed though it is trending colder. Again a slight track in the shift of the low will make all the difference here as well. This is a more classical storm where the border of rain/snow is in CT. Very different than the unusual blower dry extremely cold storms we've had. Those are are more common for northern new england/great lakes.

[Cambium]

Wow to the snow total update.

I did some outdoor stuff outside. It's nice to get this break.

Current temps, Satellite, and Radar.

[Cambium]

Is Euro12z off it's rockers or will there be a crazy swath that much? I wouldn't be surprised if BDL got nothing and southern Greenwich or Long island got 6 inches JUST TOMORROW

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Is Euro12z off it's rockers or will there be a crazy swath that much? I wouldn't be surprised if BDL got nothing and southern Greenwich or Long island got 6 inches JUST TOMORROW

Yea..looks like tomorrow has trended snowier..Wednesday seems to have trended slightly wetter in the last run.