[jp03]

Originally Posted by markfromct

Latest weekly long range interpretation of the ECMWF model

So weird. I looked at Accuweathers monthly long term forecast by day (which is also a bunch of guesses) for this period for Danbury and they show mostly BELOW normal temps during this time frame. December 30th to January 19th. It has from 1/1 to 1/10 EVERY day with a high below normal and lows in the teens. The period from 1/10-1/19 it moderates slightly but the average is still slightly below normal .

My point is not to dismiss your maps. But isn't this odd. Here are the first 19 days of January predicted highs

1 29
2 26
3 25
4 25
5 26
6 31
7 35
8 33
9 35
10 30
11 39
12 41
13 33
14 31
15 35
16 30
17 29
18 29
19 37

So their maps show above to warmer.

Yet the average high during this period is mid 30's and 13 DAYS are forecast below average and only 1 day over 40.

They don't even USE their own maps to do their long range predicting??

[Tubeworm]

NWS updated there precip map:

Precipitation Forecast
Liquid Equivalent (Rain + melted Snow + melted Ice)
Created: 12/20/13 10:26 PM EST

[Cambium]

A rainbow of current temps. Some areas in the 50s. Some below freezing. Some in upper 40s. Some in upper 30s.

About 10-15 above normal at the moment. Some showers this afternoon/evening, scattered stuff on Sunday, then Rain on Monday. Warm Warm Warm.

[Cambium]

Looking ahead... I don't skip over stuff. I love providing everyone (and myself) non bias weather of Connecticut and not NYC or Florida. Whether its summer time or winter time, I wont dance around the fact that 40s is chilly in December and 70s is warm in June.

Record Warm Temps Sunday to a Cold Dry Christmas Day and then some snow again?

Upton Highlights:

• ONE THING TO MONITOR IS THE FOG FOR TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY BE AN ADVECTION FOG WITH POTENTIAL FOR OFFSHORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO GET BROUGHT ONSHORE BY EARLY EVENING.

• THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGHS SUNDAY AND RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT.

• MUCH OF THE RAINFALL ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT THIS WILL BECOME STEADY AND COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES.

• POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND A RAIN-SNOW MIX ATTHE COAST LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

[markfromct]

Originally Posted by jp03

So weird. I looked at Accuweathers monthly long term forecast by day (which is also a bunch of guesses) for this period for Danbury and they show mostly BELOW normal temps during this time frame. December 30th to January 19th. It has from 1/1 to 1/10 EVERY day with a high below normal and lows in the teens. The period from 1/10-1/19 it moderates slightly but the average is still slightly below normal .

My point is not to dismiss your maps. But isn't this odd. Here are the first 19 days of January predicted highs

1 29
2 26
3 25
4 25
5 26
6 31
7 35
8 33
9 35
10 30
11 39
12 41
13 33
14 31
15 35
16 30
17 29
18 29
19 37

So their maps show above to warmer.

Yet the average high during this period is mid 30's and 13 DAYS are forecast below average and only 1 day over 40.

They don't even USE their own maps to do their long range predicting??

These maps were made by Brett Anderson, a meteorologist at AccuWeather. He has a blog on their website and it's his interpretation of the ECMWF model. I also take these with a grain of salt but find them interesting.

[markfromct]

Originally Posted by jp03

Ok... I just thought it odd the official long term forecast was different than the map from the same weather outlet. See how it unfolds I guess.


Looks like a pretty serious ice storm developing for the northern ny / New England area. One of the bad effects of the warm surge.

Your right. I have family up in Westfield, VT, they are under a Ice Storm Warning till 7P Sunday. A half to one Inch off ice is being predicted with widespread power outages.

[Tubeworm]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

I looked on many of the NWS upton pages....could not find that map though. I hope Tubeworm tells us where he/she found it. I like the fact that it is such a high res map.

Ahh of course-- Here are some NWS pages concerning the snow cover:

Regional Snow Analyses: Northeast

Interactive Snow Information
(This is what I used in the pic yesterday) I think, technically this is a model, so you can go into the future to see what the snow cover may be.

[Tubeworm]

TWC's report on Jan Temps:

VIDEO: Forecast for January

[markfromct]

Originally Posted by Tubeworm

TWC's report on Jan Temps:

VIDEO: Forecast for January

Thanks,good Video. That's two outlets now calling for a warmer then normal January.

[Mixum]

It's just wishful thinking actually