[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Blazah1080

The weather has been really awesome all summer..
took this today...that's NYC on the left... if you zoom in.

Nice photo! That looks like a sunset in Key West - lol

Yes...we had a 10 out of 10 this summer, the weather was amazing. Now it's time for a long and mild (hopefully) shift into fall. I hope we see mostly 60's for highs in October (with a few 70's F here and there) and nights in the 40's and 50's F would be fine too.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

NWS seems to have moved the showers this week to more mid week now. Not sure why though:

Looks like a couple of waves of low pressure moving alone. Mid week will be the warmest getting into the 70s maybe one last time this month but if the weak warm front stalls to our south then we might not get to 70s.




I'm making the call... We will see snow accumulations in the NorthEast/New England in October and I would not be suprised if CT saw snow as well. This pattern is screaming it.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Looks like a couple of waves of low pressure moving alone. Mid week will be the warmest getting into the 70s maybe one last time this month but if the weak warm front stalls to our south then we might not get to 70s.




I'm making the call... We will see snow accumulations in the NorthEast/New England in October and I would not be suprised if CT saw snow as well. This pattern is screaming it.

In terms of snowfall - I try to stick with a mix of the current pattern and climo: Maybe they'll see snow up in the higher Northeast (upstate NY/Mass, VT, NH, ME, MI...etc) and at higher elevations in spots like PA ...but for the lowlands in the Tri-State (NYC/NJ/CT) and the Middle Atlantic (under 1000 ft) it would be a long shot for any snow before late November (1 in a 1000). Still you never know, look at last year on Oct 31st.

As far as the mid week temps, yes still some 70's possible this week. The normal highs at several area NWS stations are now falling below 70 F, so the odds of seeing middle or upper 70's should really start to fall off. Still, this week looks pretty nice and typical for the first week of fall.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

In terms of snowfall - I try to stick with a mix of the current pattern and climo: Maybe they'll see snow up in the higher Northeast (upstate NY/Mass, VT, NH, ME, MI...etc) and at higher elevations in spots like PA ...but for the lowlands in the Tri-State (NYC/NJ/CT) and the Middle Atlantic (under 1000 ft) it would be a long shot for any snow before late November (1 in a 1000). Still you never know, look at last year on Oct 31st.

As far as the mid week temps, yes still some 70's possible this week. The normal highs at several area NWS stations are now falling below 70 F, so the odds of seeing middle or upper 70's should really start to fall off. Still, this week looks pretty nice and typical for the first week of fall.

This may well be the nicest week of the year in terms of comfortable weather. I forgot how fantastic early fall is in the northeast...such a pleasure.

[7 Wishes]

I don't know about snow in October in the tri-state, but maybe this is the year we get sticking snow in November? (I think it last happened in Central Park in 1996, don't know about Bridgeport).

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by jp03

This may well be the nicest week of the year in terms of comfortable weather. I forgot how fantastic early fall is in the northeast...such a pleasure.

Totally agree (a little to warm for me but the dry 60s air has no complaints yet)

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

I don't know about snow in October in the tri-state, but maybe this is the year we get sticking snow in November? (I think it last happened in Central Park in 1996, don't know about Bridgeport).

I'll say this without checking stats but... Many times it has snowed in November and stuck. In fact, the most recent one was just 2 yrs ago. November 8th.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/okx/pns/11082010.txt

I remember it because the storm was moving North to South from northern New England to New Jersey then moved East OTS. Wind gusts were strong! High temps I believe were in the mid 40s that day.

[Cambium]

Calling PapaFox... Storm likely around October 2nd. Both Euro and GFS have it. Right now it looks to be around October 1st but that will be adjusted over time.

We have 2 different senarios because the Northern Jet and Southern Jet are in play.

If it Phases early (closer to southern States) then it will take a path towards great lakes (like last storm did on the 18th)

If it phases later near Mid Atlantic then it will be a coastal storm (maybe a NorEaster).

Either way, looks like we're getting Rains, maybe winds, and low clouds for PapaFox. lol

Should be fun to track... Man if this was winter.

[papafox]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Calling PapaFox... Storm likely around October 2nd. Both Euro and GFS have it. Right now it looks to be around October 1st but that will be adjusted over time.

We have 2 different senarios because the Northern Jet and Southern Jet are in play.

If it Phases early (closer to southern States) then it will take a path towards great lakes (like last storm did on the 18th)

If it phases later near Mid Atlantic then it will be a coastal storm (maybe a NorEaster).

Either way, looks like we're getting Rains, maybe winds, and low clouds for PapaFox. lol

Should be fun to track... Man if this was winter.

That is GREAT news Cambium I've been driving myself nuts all day checking the models and accuweather forum to see the latest. Where are you getting the Mon to Tue timeframe? The talk of it seems to have it Sat to Sun. What gives?? I sure hope its over the weekend so I get to fly in it during the daylight hours so I can get tons of pictures---hopefully several nice shots between layers or skimming the tops!

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

I don't know about snow in October in the tri-state, but maybe this is the year we get sticking snow in November? (I think it last happened in Central Park in 1996, don't know about Bridgeport).

That’s what’s so hard about these shoulder months (November, March) on the East Coast below Boston – they really can go either way. CP has seen sticking snow as early as November …yet at the same time there are record highs that have been in the 70’s and even 80’s F in November in Central Park, so you never know.

As far as what it looks like in the much shorter term (next few weeks), right now the main continental storm track is still over James Bay, Canada. So it will be awhile before any idea of what the pattern will be come Dec - March. This is also true of lowering heights/troughs – people forget they are very transitory at our latitude before mid November. The next 7 days will be a good example: There are signs that after this coming weekend, the current pattern of the eastern trough/western ridge that gave the northern Plains/upper Midwest the cold temps (and us the cooler than normal temps the last few nights) will shift….with a lowering of the heights over central/western Canada/ PNW. This could translate into rising heights and a warming downstream across the central USA to the East Coast. We could see highs well into the 70’s in early/mid October. So I wouldn’t put away those shorts just yet.

I have a feeling the weather Team on Channel 8 (typically rooting for the coldest weather) still has another month or so of forced spin.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

That’s what’s so hard about these shoulder months (November, March) on the East Coast below Boston – they really can go either way. CP has seen sticking snow as early as November …yet at the same time there are record highs that have been in the 70’s and even 80’s F in November in Central Park, so you never know.

As far as what it looks like in the much shorter term (next few weeks), right now the main continental storm track is still over James Bay, Canada. So it will be awhile before any idea of what the pattern will be come Dec - March. This is also true of lowering heights/troughs – people forget they are very transitory at our latitude before mid November. The next 7 days will be a good example: There are signs that after this coming weekend, the current pattern of the eastern trough/western ridge that gave the northern Plains/upper Midwest the cold temps (and us the cooler than normal temps the last few nights) will shift….with a lowering of the heights over central/western Canada/ PNW. This could translate into rising heights and a warming downstream across the central USA to the East Coast. We could see highs well into the 70’s in early/mid October. So I wouldn’t put away those shorts just yet.

I have a feeling the weather Team on Channel 8 (typically rooting for the coldest weather) still has another month or so of forced spin.

Still can't figure out how channel 8 spinning for cold and you spinning for warm is different??? You both are twisting models to see what you want to see. In fact lets mark this prediction of well into the 70's into early mid October and see what transpires because nothing long term is showing this from any reputable source..