[jp03]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

I have to go with long term climo as the best guide...so I think most places in the greater Tri state area will not see any snow before early December. At this point snow is a long way off.

Otherwise, next week and the last week of the month look nice ...warm temps, sunshine and dry (after light showers push through tonight). So typical steady, stable September weather for the most part. I just went out for lunch an hr ago, it was perfect out there - not a cloud in the sky, breezy, and 75 F. It feels like San Diego out there - lol

The large Typhoon (Sumak? ) something like that near Japan/S. Korea may have an effect on our weather down the road in the form of a large trough digger that should usher in colder air. In fact there are signs that may be hold for awhile...

[Mike 75]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Ok, I have to ask. Don't roll your eyes at me for it. lol

What are the chances we see snow in October again or a snowstorm in October or November??

Give me some odds because I'm baffled at the "pattern" I'm seeing evolve.

Just give me some odds, thats all.

Along the shore, 0% chance for October. Maybe 10% inland. Last year was a 1 in 500 year event.

Along the shore for November, 10%. Say 30% inland.

[Slipperman]

Originally Posted by jp03

fall is trying..

..and failing. just 2 nights ago i was running the heat. now it's the A/C again.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Slipperman

..and failing. just 2 nights ago i was running the heat. now it's the A/C again.

lmao. I've had my a/c on at nights too but mornings sure do feel good. Slowly transitioning. Its trying.

Speaking of fall... I'm not going to make a big deal about 2 inches of rain especially with the ground so dry its going to soak it right up BUT... I have to mention that whats happening Tuesday is VERY Autumn like.

Not so much the temps but the way the systems are "trying" to phase. It's not often in mid September you get a deep trough like that! So if this was 2-3 mths from now we would be talking about the "chances" for snow if such and such can happen here.. This is a "pattern" that is starting to evolve and favor a cold snowy Northeast!

Notice GFS keeps the systems seperate. (LESS RAIN)



Notice the Euro phases them (MORE HEAVY RAINS)

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Slipperman

..and failing. just 2 nights ago i was running the heat. now it's the A/C again.

I think we should keep in mind that September is normally more of a summer month than a fall month in the Tri-State area. Normal highs are still well into the 70’s F. Real fall doesn’t start around here until early/mid October.

I do think by then (early October or so) we'll see some modest cool temps with a few days with highs only in the 60's or even upper 50's. However, I don't think October will cooler than normal along much of the East Coast, at least based on the dry and non-stormy pattern we have been in.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

I think we should keep in mind that September is normally more of a summer month than a fall month in the Tri-State area. Normal highs are still well into the 70’s F. Real fall doesn’t start around here until early/mid October.

I do think by then (early October or so) we'll see some modest cool temps with a few days with highs only in the 60's or even upper 50's. However, I don't think October will cooler than normal along much of the East Coast, at least based on the dry and non-stormy pattern we have been in.

Well in the 70's is not true. The month starts in the 75-77 range but by month end highs should be in the 65-70 range.

[Cambium]

Great...yet another day of storms. I'm getting tired of seeing these.
Upton.

SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THEN OFF THE COAST EARLY
MONDAY PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER.

FORECAST MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S.
MOVING NE AND AN AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE MOVING SE TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES THAT PHASE TOGETHER PRODUCING A FULL AMPLITUDE TROUGH THAT
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE ALWAYS DIFFERENCES IN EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW
LEVEL LOW PRES SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG WITH ITS AMPLIFICATION AND
SUBSEQUENT TRACK...THERE ARE GROWING SIGNALS OF AN INTENSIFYING
LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING TO THE N-NE AND PASSING JUST WEST OF THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WOULD INCLUDE SEVERE
TSTMS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES...FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING
RAINFALL...STRONG GRADIENT WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING.

AN OUTLOOK FOR THIS STORM WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS FCST UPDATE.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Mike 75

Along the shore, 0% chance for October. Maybe 10% inland. Last year was a 1 in 500 year event.

Along the shore for November, 10%. Say 30% inland.

I would also agree with you here, the chance of any snow long the Connecticut coast /long Island/NYC...ect is only about 30-40% in early December - so I would guess that in November it's likely near 1 to 10%. Inland areas might see a few dustings in November, but they are normaly light (and melt quick). I think snow is a good 3 months away from most areas of the Tri State region.

As to the normal highs in Sept, NWS Bridgeport has a normal high today of 75 F....that is much closer to summer than anything resembling fall. Otherwise, some light showers pass through today, then sunny and warmer weather seems to be on tap for later today and Sunday. Next week looks seasonable with highs in the 70's and lows in the 50's

[andthentherewere3]

Originally Posted by jp03

Well in the 70's is not true. The month starts in the 75-77 range but by month end highs should be in the 65-70 range.

You'd be surprised, by the end of September Stamford's average is still above 70. I think the coastline in general is warmer during the cooler months.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by andthentherewere3

You'd be surprised, by the end of September Stamford's average is still above 70. I think the coastline in general is warmer during the cooler months.

Yep..thats why I said 65-70. 70 near the coast...65 farthest inland.

There is no doubt September is a a summer type month though, no argument there.