[jp03]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Accuweather's first look at the Winter coming up. To sum it up, they believe the Northern Jet stream will dip down bringing cold air into the East while the southern Jet stream is active down below. (recipe for snowstorms) In El Ninos we typically do get 2 active Jets.

NOAA agrees with he southern Jet but keeps us above normal all winter because the northern Jet stays in Canada.




Accuweather First Winter Outlook 2012-13 - YouTube

Paul Pastelok. "The 2012-2013 Winter Season is expected to be a busy year, especially the East which had very little snowfall when compared to last year. Last year was also a mild winter for many areas extending from the northern Plains to the Northeast. After a record-breaking March, we stepped into a summer that so far has not let up with intense heat and drought impacting the center of the nation. We believe that these past events will impact the weather for this coming Fall and Winter Season.

For the East, snowfall may average above normal across the mid-Atlantic into southern New England.

We believe that snowfall will average closer to normal for the interior Northeast through northern New England. The Southeast can be wetter than normal with cooler temperatures. The stormtrack may be dominated by the southern branch the first part of the season, until the northern jet increases in strengthen with more opportunities for phasing mid- to late season. This means more widespread rain than snow events early or storms passing off the Southeast coast and out to sea. The question still remains how much blocking sets up this year"

Sounds interesting. I hope Accuweathers long term seasonal forecast is better than there long term mid range 15 day forecast. After about day 5 that thing is always wrong! in fact if you take the opposite of what they say for the 10-15 day range you are more likely to be right. Not sure why they even bother.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by jp03

Sounds interesting. I hope Accuweathers long term seasonal forecast is better than there long term mid range 15 day forecast. After about day 5 that thing is always wrong! in fact if you take the opposite of what they say for the 10-15 day range you are more likely to be right. Not sure why they even bother.

If anyone is expecting to get a "degree" within the forecast they have another thing coming. We have to look at the "broader" scope of things. Look at how they have the Jet Streams or what they are basing it off of, or simply put.... "The in general look".

What they are saying at this point is the southern branch jet is going to be active and the northern Jet will take dives down to the East. Thats it. The outcome of that = what is posted. If anyone is looking for details they should know better. The Pros do.(meaning nobody can give details).

Next update should come September then a final one in November. Obviously things can change by then and the setup may be completely different. But right now they are going by whats evolving (as of right now)

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Cambium

If anyone is expecting to get a "degree" within the forecast they have another thing coming. We have to look at the "broader" scope of things. Look at how they have the Jet Streams or what they are basing it off of, or simply put.... "The in general look".

What they are saying at this point is the southern branch jet is going to be active and the northern Jet will take dives down to the East. Thats it. The outcome of that = what is posted. If anyone is looking for details they should know better. The Pros do.(meaning nobody can give details).

Next update should come September then a final one in November. Obviously things can change by then and the setup may be completely different. But right now they are going by whats evolving (as of right now)

Nobody is expecting it to be close...but saying rain and 70's seven straight days as they did earlier this month and it ends up sunny in the 90's...well. Why bother? Cmon nobody here is with me on the uselessness of accuweather 15 day forecast?

[kidyankee764]

Originally Posted by jp03

Cmon nobody here is with me on the uselessness of accuweather 15 day forecast?

I'm with you.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by jp03

Nobody is expecting it to be close...but saying rain and 70's seven straight days as they did earlier this month and it ends up sunny in the 90's...well. Why bother? Cmon nobody here is with me on the uselessness of accuweather 15 day forecast?

It's actually a 25 day forecast (yikes!) and I've noticed the same thing. It starts to "break down" after 5 days and is completely useless after 10.

Then again, all the other "10 day" forecasts out there also had no 90s in it after yesterday but now there's a possibility of 90+ tomorrow and Friday.....

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

It's actually a 25 day forecast (yikes!) and I've noticed the same thing. It starts to "break down" after 5 days and is completely useless after 10.

Then again, all the other "10 day" forecasts out there also had no 90s in it after yesterday but now there's a possibility of 90+ tomorrow and Friday.....

I can't help but think that AccuWeather forecasts are as much about marketing as meteorology.

[kidyankee764]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

I can't help but think that AccuWeather forecasts are as much about marketing as meteorology.

Absolutely.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

I can't help but think that AccuWeather forecasts are as much about marketing as meteorology.

I cant help but agree. Too much hype not enough substance.

[htfdcolt]

Originally Posted by jp03

I cant help but agree. Too much hype not enough substance.

Fundamental difference...Accuweather (and other private forecasters) are for-profit entities vs. NOAA.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by rajmelk

Fundamental difference...Accuweather (and other private forecasters) are for-profit entities vs. NOAA.

Exactly true. Heck even the Weather channel is so different from 10 years ago. Only thing is their 10 day forecasts seem to be more on target from days 5-10. I honestly only use NOAA now. Weather channel radars are better though..more accurate in my opinion.

Edit: Wait NOAA and Cambium...