Will Philly regain its position as 5th largest city? (people, Boston, Chicago)

[waronxmas]

Originally Posted by urbanologist

Historically, Charleston,SC was at one time the nation's 5th largest city and Boston being the largest. Today, Philadelphia isn't New York, Los Angeles or Chicago when it comes to becoming a main hub of a region while having stronger larger diverse economies and with bigger metro population to absorb any loses. It still falls in the shadows of NYC like Detroit was to Chicago in the midwest. Other cities like DC, Baltimore are also competing for growth so it will be very unlikely it will get a sudden surge in population fast enough to catch up. It would have to grow faster than cities like San Antonio which are only a hand full of cities looking to steal the 5th position. Since Philly isn't really a stand alone city it has too much regional competition.

+1

As long as NYC and DC are around (and to an lesser extent Baltimore), you won't see Philly grow by leaps and bounds in it's city or metro population.

[kidphilly]

Originally Posted by waronxmas

+1

As long as NYC and DC are around (and to an lesser extent Baltimore), you won't see Philly grow by leaps and bounds in it's city or metro population.

I agree it will never grow at the rates of other cities, it is a little penned in. But funny thing is recently there migration pattern has shifted from people moving from Philly to NYC to the opposite. But you are right much of the area has been built out - some areas can infill a bit but there is just not the space that exisits in other Metros. NYC and Philly already overlap in their development

[kidphilly]

Originally Posted by urbanologist

Historically, Charleston,SC was at one time the nation's 5th largest city and Boston being the largest. Today, Philadelphia isn't New York, Los Angeles or Chicago when it comes to becoming a main hub of a region while having stronger larger diverse economies and with bigger metro population to absorb any loses. It still falls in the shadows of NYC like Detroit was to Chicago in the midwest. Other cities like DC, Baltimore are also competing for growth so it will be very unlikely it will get a sudden surge in population fast enough to catch up. It would have to grow faster than cities like San Antonio which are only a hand full of cities looking to steal the 5th position. Since Philly isn't really a stand alone city it has too much regional competition.

Actually Philly is very much a stand alone city. It is still the 4th largest Urban Area in the US with nearly 5.4 million people living in it's urban space. Only a handful of CSAs are larger in the US when compared to Philly's Urban Developed area. Saying it doesnt stand alone is flat out wrong. But it is sorrounded by more MAJOR metros than any other city in the country so yes it's boundaries can't expand

[waronxmas]

Originally Posted by kidphilly

I agree it will never grow at the rates of other cities, it is a little penned in. But funny thing is recently there migration pattern has shifted from people moving from Philly to NYC to the opposite. But you are right much of the area has been built out - some areas can infill a bit but there is just not the space that exisits in other Metros. NYC and Philly already overlap in their development

I don't really think that is the problem. If a large enough amount of people move to an area, then the demand would dictate new construction. It's not like Philly doesn't have the room to support a lot more people, it did as little as 60 years ago.

It's all about demand. Supply can be built.

[kidphilly]

Originally Posted by waronxmas

I don't really think that is the problem. If a large enough amount of people move to an area, then the demand would dictate new construction. It's not like Philly doesn't have the room to support a lot more people, it did as little as 60 years ago.

It's all about demand. Supply can be built.

I agree in some ways but also remember the density will never be what it was from 1900 to 1950. Even the neighborhoods in the city proper that are being redeveloped have 1 or 2 inhabitants in houses that once had 5-8. Plus on the fringes much of the land has been preserved, yes there is some room but not like other areas. The counties that sorround Philly are mostly developed so there is no where the room for other areas have. Also the next set of counties are in different metros to the West (Allentown, Reading, Lancaster all their own MSA), North (NYC), and South (Baltimore). To the East there is the Pine Barrens in NJ so that can never be built on...

[waronxmas]

Originally Posted by kidphilly

I agree in some ways but also remember the density will never be what it was from 1900 to 1950. Even the neighborhoods in the city proper that are being redeveloped have 1 or 2 inhabitants in houses that once had 5-8. Plus on the fringes much of the land has been preserved, yes there is some room but not like other areas. The counties that sorround Philly are mostly developed so there is no where the room for other areas have. Also the next set of counties are in different metros to the West (Allentown, Reading, Lancaster all their own MSA), North (NYC), and South (Baltimore). To the East there is the Pine Barrens in NJ so that can never be built on...

Bulldozers + High rises will get you all the extra space you need. Of course the NIMBYs probably don't like the idea of skyscrapers outside of CC.

[kidphilly]

Originally Posted by waronxmas

Bulldozers + High rises will get you all the extra space you need. Of course the NIMBYs probably don't like the idea of skyscrapers outside of CC.

Plus zoning regulations - we actually have em (even in the city there are hieght restrictions outside of CC)

not to mention people live in the areas you want to bulldoze.

There has been a large increase in CC hi rise development and quite a few more approved (will see when the economy settles). Also the area along the waterfront has room for development. It just isnt desireable today, it is seperated by 95 and no real transit options. People will not move to CC to have to use a car, kind of defeats the purpose...

[waronxmas]

Originally Posted by kidphilly

Plus zoning regulations - we actually have em

not to mention people live in the areas you want to bulldoze.

There has been a large increase in CC hi rise development and quite a few more approved (will see when the economy settles). Also the area along the waterfront has room for development. It just isnt desireable today, it is seperated by 95 and no real transit options. People will not move to CC to have to use a car, kind of defeats the purpose...

As does Atlanta or Chicago or any other city with high rises all over the place. I think you mean height restrictions.

And there are no neighborhoods "I want to bulldoze". It's a fact of the market that if the demand required it, the space could be found. That's not really issue for Philly and probably wont ever be again.

[kidphilly]

Originally Posted by waronxmas

As does Atlanta or Chicago or any other city with high rises all over the place. I think you mean height restrictions.

And there are no neighborhoods "I want to bulldoze". It's a fact of the market that if the demand required it, the space could be found. That's not really issue for Philly and probably wont ever be again.

And it has in some instances. But the amount of easily developed land is no where near most other metros, either within the city or in the burbs. that is a FACT. Also a fact because of the higher density it is significantly more expensive to build new in these areas because of the density thus the price to build slows the demand to build higher priced residences. People are migrating for cheaper living typicially not more expensive living.

The most recent four hi rise residential buildings built in CC started at 1+ million for a 1 bedroom condo. While there is a market this, that market wont fuel huge population growth and developers cant build new buildings that offer entry level properties in the most desirable neighborhoods affordably on a large scale.

BTW - I have been very nice to Atlanta lately... (can I call you waronphilly at least for the summer)

[waronxmas]

Originally Posted by kidphilly

And it has in some instances. But the amount of easily developed land is no where near most other metros, either within the city or in the burbs. that is a FACT. Also a fact because of the higher density it is significantly more expensive to build new in these areas because of the density thus the price to build slows the demand to build higher priced residences. People are migrating for cheaper living typicially not more expensive living.

The most recent four hi rise residential buildings built in CC started at 1+ million for a 1 bedroom condo. While there is a market this, that market wont fuel huge population growth and developers cant build new buildings that offer entry level properties in the most desirable neighborhoods affordably on a large scale.

BTW - I have been very nice to Atlanta lately... (can I call you waronphilly at least for the summer)

I've got nothing against Philly.

It's just reality that Philly has no need to massively redevelop. It would be much better to just rehab the parts of the city that need it. there is plenty of housing stock to go around.