Is Chicago really dangerous? (Harvey, Manhattan: unemployment, taxes, codes)

[Attrill]

Originally Posted by ofcjim40

Here is a start of my evidence that you want me to post. Give me some time to add to it. It's far easier to post the links and let you read than to copy and paste parts of the article. Also I can't be accused of altering the articles to make my point...

Thanks for posting links. I took a quick look at them and they really don't do anything to convince me. I couldn't find any facts in any of them that would show crime is worse than ever in Chicago. They do raise the issue of response times going up, but I don't think that automatically means people don't report crimes. Besides, people not reporting small thefts to their insurance companies isn't really what this is all about.

Originally Posted by ofcjim40

Anderson Cooper 360: Chicago Killings « - CNN.com Blogs

This is typical media hysteria. It is a story about how gang members won't tell cops who shot them. Nothing new, and it does nothing to back up claims that Chicago is more dangerous than ever (or any of your other points)

Originally Posted by ofcjim40

911 System Inundated, As Size Of Chicago Police Force Dwindles - cbs2chicago.com

Suit: Cops slow to respond to store owner's slaying - Chicago Breaking News (http://www.chicagobreakingnews.com/2010/05/city-sued-over-slaying-of-sweet-shop-owner.html - broken link)[/quote]

The city needs more cops, undoubtedly. It does show that response times have increased in the 6th District. It is a real problem that is getting some attention, and hopefully more cops will be on the streets soon.

Originally Posted by ofcjim40

Pajamas Media » Chicago: Where Criminals No Longer Fear the Police

This an editorial, mostly concerned with a single weekend two years ago and claiming CPD are demoralized - and he backs that up with "An unsigned essay, purportedly written by a Chicago police officer". The CPD may be demoralized (the lack of a Police Chief and a contract for so long certainly did take a toll), but this article has no real reporting in it.

Originally Posted by ofcjim40

WHERE HAVE ALL THE MURDERS GONE?

This is an essay against the death penalty where the writer just tacks on his belief that better medicine dropped the murder rate. No facts, nothing to back up his claim whatsoever

Originally Posted by ofcjim40

Police officer slain as mayor embarrasses himself and city - Chicago Tribune

It's a John Kass editorial. Yes, it is tragic that cops have been killed recently. And yes, Daley is an expert of making an a$$ of himself sometimes. This really doesn't have any info about the crime rate, just one incident.

Originally Posted by ofcjim40

CRIME, GUNS, AND VIDEOTAPE: Chicago’s Fraudulent Murder Statistics

A 4 year old blog post with dead links. The investigation they tried to link to went nowhere. The fact that the site has a banner of Obama in Joker facepaint doesn't do a lot to convince me of it's impartiality and reliability.

Originally Posted by ofcjim40

Janet Tavakoli: U.S. Recession Breeds Escalating Violent Crime

This article is crazy. It is a laundry list of crimes that have occured recently and a random claim of "If Chicago is any indication, it is much more likely the statistics are being doctored and that the public is being lied to in a profound way." Why? When were stats doctored? This article is more about the inside of the writers head than anything in the real world.

Originally Posted by ofcjim40

John Kass: Corrupt pols put public safety at risk - chicagotribune.com

John Kass again. Another cop tragically killed. See above.

[Lookout Kid]

So a bunch of media fear mongering and conspiracy blog posts are supposed to convince us that our crime statistics are so totally tinkered with that nearly a half of the murders have disappeared? You still aren't supporting your argument. The only source that was somewhat poignant (even though it offered no sources to back up the theory) was the one describing how medical technology has decreased the murder rate. But this article compared 1965 to the current day, and Chicago's murder rate peaked in the early 1990s. Like Attril said earlier, for this theory to account for the massive decrease in murders that we have seen in Chicago since 1991 there would have to be an increase in instances of "assault with a deadly weapon", and this has simply not occurred.

I'll say it again... Chicago is MUCH safer today than it was in the early 1990s. But of course, some neighborhoods are getting worse while others are getting better. The greatest increases in safety have occurred in the neighborhoods immediately south and west of the Loop. And of course, the full court press of North Side gentrification has greatly reduced crime in many neighborhoods. It's the working class (or formerly working class) neighborhoods on the periphery of the city that are continuing to decline. And they will continue to decline, as will many working class inner ring suburbs. This will make the view from Bollingbrook look terrifying, while the view from the West Loop will continue to be rosy.

[ajolotl]

Don't know how so many people know about the corruption of statistics and how it has evolved over the years, but if I had to guess I would think that, with increased scrutiny and the fluidity of communication these days, it would be harder to get away with something so scandalous (compared to 20+ years ago). A more likely explanation of the perception/statistic gap is that the news flows much more freely these days, whereas 25 years ago it took more of an effort to be aware of what was happening constantly in every corner of the city.

For me it is unmistakable -- where I hang out things are much less dicey than in the 80s and 90s. That doesn't give me a global view, but rather than rely on a hunch I'm inclined to look at the numbers. No doubt some places see violent crime that never did, but overall I'm inclined to believe that there has been significant improvement.

I certainly wouldn't feel any more comfortable in SF, Boston, Miami (probably less so), etc. Chicago is a very safe big city unless you go out of your way to look for trouble.

[Lookout Kid]

Originally Posted by ajolotl

Chicago is a very safe big city unless you go out of your way to look for trouble.

I will concede that there are a few areas of the city that give a false sense of security, though. In particular, Bucktown and Wicker Park come to mind. They now look just as polished and scrubbed as Lincoln Park, but continue to have issues with some Humboldt Park and Logan Square neighbors to the west and north coming in to wreak havoc. But I spent a lot of time in both neighborhoods in the 1990s, and they are quite obviously safer now than they were then. EVERYONE used to get mugged in Wicker Park. I had a group of six friends who all got mugged together as a group in 1997.

[ofcjim40]

Attrill it's clear this is a dead issue between us. Doesn't matter what I present you'll just say you're not convinced. Again, there is a difference between crimes that take place and reported crimes. The correlation is simple. There are 15% less Police on the street and an almost equal drop in stats. Another thing to take into account is that because of the low morale this affects productivity too. I'll try to find the exact stats, but tickets, parkers, arrests and clearance rates are down. So when there are less Police there are less crimes caught, less crimes reported, less stats compiled. This doesn't mean any less crime is actually taking place. So when the Police are running call to call, don't have time to write reports on more minor crime and simply code it out, and don't have time to do self initiated activity, stats will be down. This is not just a Chicago problem, but a problem in a lot of the United States. But politicians are the ones in control of this. They are laying off Police across the country, so there is no way that the politicians can let the numbers rise which would cause more economic outcry. Again, it's not just a Chicago thing, it's across the country that crimes are reclassified, etc. to keep stats at levels the powers that be feel comfortable with. Along with States Atty's not always authorizing more severe charges in some cases.

So really, we the American people are to believe that we are in one of the worst economies in decades, unemployment is at record highs, people are losing there houses, Police and Fire are getting laid off, and in the middle of all this chaos crime is DOWN!? Does that pass the smell test? If so I got some swampland to sell you.

So reported crime stats are down, yet you'd be hard pressed for any cop to agree that there's less crime on the street. So anyone believe what you want to believe, and believe the stats and politicians if you want. But the formula is quite simple, less police and lower morale equals less productivity and less time to do reports. Actually altering stats is easier than it used to be. Before pen, paper, log book left more of a trail. Now with computers it's much easier to change UCR codes and reclassify a crime or call when the crime statistical analysis is done. But ask any street cop how often the proper charges are approved to begin it. You get a guy is a stolen car, you would think slam dunk Poss of Stolen Motor Vehicle, nope, most of the time the States Atty won't approve the felony, you have to charge the misdemeanor of Criminal Trespass to Vehicle. But the States Atty's can't be totally blamed because they are overworked and understaffed too and have bosses to please. So you add all of this together, crime on the books will appear down but in reality it's not.

[jdiddy]

Originally Posted by ofcjim40

Attrill it's clear this is a dead issue between us. Doesn't matter what I present you'll just say you're not convinced. Again, there is a difference between crimes that take place and reported crimes. The correlation is simple. There are 15% less Police on the street and an almost equal drop in stats.

It would help if what you said could be quantified at all.

Please prove this statement. There are 15% less police compared to when? This 'almost equal' drop in stats occurs over the exact same time period?

[JBVirtuoso]

This is most likely just people fed up with incumbents. If Daley hadn't been reelected in 2007, and we had a different mayor now, we'd most likely have the same crime stats with a different set of conspiracy theories.

[ofcjim40]

Originally Posted by jdiddy

It would help if what you said could be quantified at all.

Please prove this statement. There are 15% less police compared to when? This 'almost equal' drop in stats occurs over the exact same time period?

CPD's authorized strength is 13,500. They are short, this is published and well known, at least 2230 officers short, so in the area of 16%.

Police shortage a growing problem; city 2,000 shy :: CHICAGO SUN-TIMES :: City Hall (http://www.suntimes.com/news/cityhall/1853008,CST-NWS-shortage29.article - broken link)

[WeSoHood]

You can check out homicides here:

List of neighborhoods - Tracking homicides in Chicago - RedEye | ChicagoNow

There are some alarming neighborhoods.. but there are also areas with very little crime other than petty theft and burglary. Just have to research..

[Lookout Kid]

I still say it's ridiculous to say that the HUGE drop in violent crime that we've seen in Chicago since the early 1990s is due to lack of cops on the street. It may have some effect on the stats, but many forms of violent crime have been nearly cut in half in that period of time. And the police department was understaffed in 1991 as well.

I think a lot of the crime hysteria we're seeing in the news now is based on the general attitude of the country. In the 1990s the economy was booming and crime was dropping rapidly. But even at the end of the 1990s, crime was still at higher levels in Chicago than it is today. The 1990s are now seen as the "gentrication decade" by many, and people were moving back into a supposedly safer Chicago... that was more dangerous than the Chicago of today.

What's different now? People are in a crappy mood because of the economic meltdown, and are more tuned to belive the sky is falling. This even affect police officers, who are seeing crime rise in formerly quite parts of the city. And many cops live on the far Southwest and Northwest sides of the city, where conditions may actually be deteriorating. People expect crime to go up during a recession, but statistics prove this to be a bad assumption. In fact, the Great Depression was a period of relatively low crime in American history (Steve Levitt talks about this phenomenon in Freakonomics, if anyone is interested). So in spite of reality, we have a sort of typical (for Chicago) level of gang violence that is attracting a lot of media attention right now.

Crime is a major problem in Chicago. I don't deny that. It is a HUGE problem. And many parts of the city are really quite unsafe. But we are not going through any sort of "crime wave", or even a period of slightly elevated crime at this time. People are just being more sensitive to it for some reason. This is not a bad thing if it brings about positive action... But it is a bad thing if it drags Chicago's reputation through the dirt.