Homicides Decline (Chicago, Time: activity, thefts, snow)

[ofcjim40]

Actually it does. We have had more than one Chicago murderer hide out in the suburb I work in. A lot of family members for Chicagoans live in the burb I work in. So when the heat is too much in the City they head out this way and then we inherit the problem. My over a decade of being a Cop has taught me a thing or two about sociology and economics. I can tell you the Chicago crime rate can have an effect for a decent distance. Also, where do you think the Suburban kids are buying their heroin? The majority are hitting the west side of Chicago. It's happened before where a dope dealer will have a "tail car" and will tail the kids that pull up in nice cars and follow them back to the Burbs. From there they either do a home invasion or a burglary on another day. Burbs and the City are very intertwined.

[Chicago60614]

I agree about some people almost getting angry when someone says the murder/crime rate is going down. If you look at the comments about it in the paper when they post stats, almost half the people right away scream that they must be lying - because crime just HAS to be going up.

If crime goes down, then it goes against everything they're screaming about and angry about, so it can't possibly be true.

I think a lot of it is that when there's a rash of shootings/etc in the city - people immediately freak that "oh my god - the city is going out of control!!". They just don't stop to realize that this happens every few months, and it's happened every few months for DECADES. Overall though things are clearly trending downward.

More people are saved from being murdered because of improvements in ER's and healthcare - but the violent crime rate alone has gone down more than the murder rate. From over 90,000 events in the 1990's to around 50,000 in 2000, and now down to 30,000 this year. Then you get the, "well people just aren't reporting it now - that's all" statement. I'd be willing to bet when the city was more of a war zone back 10-20 years ago, you probably had a lot more things happen that didn't get repoted to the police. When someone is getting attacked on your block ever two days, you become really use to it happening. Now that it might only happen once every 10 days, it probably shakes you a little more and prompts you to call the police.

[tonythetuna]

"Based on preliminary data from the police and Cook County Medical Examiner's Office, RedEye determined there were 448 homicides in 2010, which was 13 fewer homicides than in 2009.

Chicago Police Supt. Jody Weis said this week the department determined there were 435 homicides in 2010, a record low since 1965, based on their own investigations."

Hmmm...

Tracking homicides in Chicago - RedEye | ChicagoNow

[Chicago60614]

^ then the Red Eye just needs to find the city's stats and dissect them. Maybe they'll find some scoop in a few reclasses, or maybe it just is what it is.

[Drover]

Originally Posted by Chicago60614

^ then the Red Eye just needs to find the city's stats and dissect them. Maybe they'll find some scoop in a few reclasses, or maybe it just is what it is.

Like I mentioned upthread, RedEye enumerates all homicides whether it's classified as a murder or not. Meanwhile, I'm guessing Weiss was speaking not of homicides but of murders. Now that RedEye is claiming 448 and, according to EveryBlock anyway, 13 homicides were classified as either justifiable or negligent/reckless, the unaccounted-for disparity between RedEye's "homicides" and CPD's "murders" stands at 2.

[tonythetuna]

Originally Posted by oakparkdude

Its kinda risky to predict the homicide count for 2011 based on 5 days in January.

We have eleven already as of the 10th of January. I think there have been a few more the last two days. That is almost a summertime rate.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?k...Wc&output=html

[Chicago60614]

^ actually winter rates are roughly 1 murder a day, with summer rates around 1.66 murders per day on average.

January so far has been right in line with most years from 2004 onward.

[aragx6]

Interesting stat. I would have thought the difference would be greater than that!

[tonythetuna]

Aside from the two murders a few hours before the blizzard arrived, it looks like the storm stopped the scumbag murderers dead for a few days. (no pun intended) I don't think there has been a murder since Tuesday! Thanks blizzard!

Tracking homicides in Chicago - RedEye | ChicagoNow

[nycjowww]

Originally Posted by tonythetuna

Aside from the two murders a few hours before the blizzard arrived, it looks like the storm stopped the scumbag murderers dead for a few days. (no pun intended) I don't think there has been a murder since Tuesday! Thanks blizzard!

Tracking homicides in Chicago - RedEye | ChicagoNow

well hopefully they dont come out in full force when the blizzard is cleared out.