Homicides Decline (Chicago: legal, winters, year)

[mas23]

Originally Posted by Drover

And make no mistake, a big part of why NYC's murder rate has dropped faster and further than ours is because the criminal element has been priced out of the city quicker in NYC than it has here.

yep. from what here they all moved to other east coast cities and esp the southeast.

[tonythetuna]

So in 2008 the total was 510.
2009 458

This year, so far as of Dec. 13, from what I can gather it is at least 434.

http://homicides.redeyechicago.com/

Will we pass last year's total?

I think we will be right around tying it or passing it by 12 or so.

[aragx6]

Obviously we'll have to wait and see, but I think it might be a little lower than you imagine. The average for this year is 1.25 murders per day. So if the number is 434 with 18 days left in the year and that that average holds up, Chicago would have 456 for the year.

My gut tells me that this average is higher in the summer than the winter, so Chicago could conceivably still have fewer murders than last year.

[ofcjim40]

Of course the rate will drop as long as some homicides continue to be coded out as "death investigations". This usually applies when a dead body is found in a car, alley, etc. with no witnesses around and it not being clear what took place. Eventually it will have to be recoded as a homicide, but they can drag their feet on this awhile. Expect 2011 to show an uptick when they have no choice but to reclassify it.

[Drover]

Originally Posted by ofcjim40

Of course the rate will drop as long as some homicides continue to be coded out as "death investigations". This usually applies when a dead body is found in a car, alley, etc. with no witnesses around and it not being clear what took place. Eventually it will have to be recoded as a homicide, but they can drag their feet on this awhile. Expect 2011 to show an uptick when they have no choice but to reclassify it.

Wouldn't the same be true year-over-year?

[tonythetuna]

Originally Posted by tonythetuna

So in 2008 the total was 510.
2009 458

This year, so far as of Dec. 13, from what I can gather it is at least 434.

http://homicides.redeyechicago.com/

Will we pass last year's total?

I think we will be right around tying it or passing it by 12 or so.

Ok, I am going with a total of 470 for this year. That's my final answer.

[nycjowww]

Originally Posted by tonythetuna

So in 2008 the total was 510.
2009 458

This year, so far as of Dec. 13, from what I can gather it is at least 434.

Tracking homicides in Chicago - RedEye | ChicagoNow

Will we pass last year's total?

I think we will be right around tying it or passing it by 12 or so.

arent murders this year down compared to the same time as last year?

[nycjowww]

it actually is

https://portal.chicagopolice.org/por...s/mcsNov10.pdf

so why would you people think crime will be higher then 2009?

[tonythetuna]

Originally Posted by jordandubreil

it actually is

https://portal.chicagopolice.org/por...s/mcsNov10.pdf

so why would you people think crime will be higher then 2009?

Your link was current as of November. We are 3/4 of the way through December now. Lots of people have been stricken down since then.

My statement and this thread is not about crime in general, this is about murders.

[Chicago60614]

There are normally around twice as many murders during summer months compared to winter months. There were 12 homicides during the first 16 days of December. I would think if we're at 434 as of last week, we'll probably end with around 445-450.

I'll guess 448.