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Old 07-07-2014, 12:52 PM
 
Location: Chicago, IL
2,752 posts, read 2,410,535 times
Reputation: 3155

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vlajos View Post
That's actually my point. It equates to the same thing. St. Louis has 318K people. I don't know how many were homicides.
I don't find per capita stuff to be useful. Besides, we shouldn't be trying to belittle this issue. Chicago's violence is out of control. The highest flat # in the country.
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Old 07-07-2014, 12:53 PM
 
14,798 posts, read 17,700,727 times
Reputation: 9251
Quote:
Originally Posted by CCrest182 View Post
I don't find per capita stuff to be useful. Besides, we shouldn't be trying to belittle this issue. Chicago's violence is out of control. The highest flat # in the country.
Lol, another statistics denier.
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Old 07-07-2014, 12:54 PM
 
Location: Chicago, IL
2,752 posts, read 2,410,535 times
Reputation: 3155
Quote:
Originally Posted by marothisu View Post
Even at this rate, this year is far behind 2012 and compared to the early 90s...not even close. Last year had 177 homicides through 6/28 and this year had 175, so virtually the same. 2012? 250...
Of course, but you never know what will happen... obviously it's not going to have as many in the 90's, but it could possibly break 2012's record of what happened this weekend continues through August and September (August the hottest month of the year).
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Old 07-07-2014, 12:59 PM
 
Location: Chicago, IL
2,752 posts, read 2,410,535 times
Reputation: 3155
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vlajos View Post
Lol, another statistics denier.
They're useless because they assume that extra 2 mil people are all living in Englewood type neighborhoods.... realistically speaking, a city with 2.7 million people is probably not going to have THAT many issues... There's a reason cities like STL have low population... If you were to chop off all of the "nice" neighborhoods or neighborhoods with little to no shootings/homicides in Chicago, that remaining amount of land would easily be the most violent of all cities.
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Old 07-07-2014, 01:03 PM
 
Location: Chicago, IL
2,752 posts, read 2,410,535 times
Reputation: 3155
Love how Garry McCarthy continues to blame guns, after 3 years of failure. Why is this guy superintendent of the city's police department?

Chicago's top cop: Blame weak gun laws for violence - CNN.com
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Old 07-07-2014, 01:09 PM
 
Location: Upper West Side, Manhattan, NYC
15,323 posts, read 23,943,089 times
Reputation: 7420
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vlajos View Post
Lol, another statistics denier.
Quite ridiculous - rates are much more useful than raw numbers are. This is basic math theory.
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Old 07-07-2014, 01:11 PM
 
Location: Upper West Side, Manhattan, NYC
15,323 posts, read 23,943,089 times
Reputation: 7420
Quote:
Originally Posted by CCrest182 View Post
They're useless because they assume that extra 2 mil people are all living in Englewood type neighborhoods.... realistically speaking, a city with 2.7 million people is probably not going to have THAT many issues... There's a reason cities like STL have low population... If you were to chop off all of the "nice" neighborhoods or neighborhoods with little to no shootings/homicides in Chicago, that remaining amount of land would easily be the most violent of all cities.
Actually, no, it wouldn't be. I have already done research on this. It wouldn't be #1 still. If you average out the per homicide rate by 100K for the last 8 years (well 2013 - 2006), then sort that list descending, and then take the worst areas that add up almost equal in population to the #1 worst, Detroit, it's still over 10 per 100k lower than all of Detroit based on Detroit's 2012 rate. Not saying these areas aren't at all bad, but it wouldn't even be #1 for that large of an area. Detroit is still worse.
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Old 07-07-2014, 01:12 PM
 
Location: Chicago, IL
2,752 posts, read 2,410,535 times
Reputation: 3155
Quote:
Originally Posted by marothisu View Post
Quite ridiculous - rates are much more useful than raw numbers are. This is basic math theory.
Oh, also to add many crimes aren't even committed by city residents. There have been numerous reports of crime IN Chicago, but from non city residents. Just one of the many reason per capita is completely pointless.
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Old 07-07-2014, 01:14 PM
 
Location: Upper West Side, Manhattan, NYC
15,323 posts, read 23,943,089 times
Reputation: 7420
Quote:
Originally Posted by CCrest182 View Post
Oh, also to add many crimes aren't even committed by city residents. Just one of the many reason per capita is completely pointless.
What are you talking about? Per capita rates show how things actually are. It would be like saying that Joe Schmo is a greater home run hitter because he had 10 more HR than some other guy, even though he had 200 more ABs than the next guy in line.

There's a reason why the FBI calculates per capita numbers, as well as the rest of the govt for various other things instead of just showing a raw number. You can't tell me Detroit is safer than Chicago just because it had a lower number of homicides - there's over 3X less people there. Your odds of getting killed there, technically speaking at any point in the city, are much greater. Per capita is a way of normalizing across uneven entities. Detroit's per capita rate was 54.6 per 100K in 2012. That means there would be almost 1500 homicides in Detroit if it were the size of Chicago at that rate.

Let's put it another way. You have two 3-point shooters. One of them made 80 of them and the other made 45. However, the one who made 45 of them only shot 90 total for a percentage of 50%. On the other hand, the guy who made more actually shot 200 of them, so his percentage is 40%. Who is the better 3 point shooter?
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Old 07-07-2014, 01:18 PM
 
Location: Chicago, IL
2,752 posts, read 2,410,535 times
Reputation: 3155
Quote:
Originally Posted by marothisu View Post
Actually, no, it wouldn't be. I have already done research on this. It wouldn't be #1 still. If you average out the per homicide rate by 100K for the last 8 years (well 2013 - 2006), then sort that list descending, and then take the worst areas that add up almost equal in population to the #1 worst, Detroit, it's still over 10 per 100k lower than all of Detroit based on Detroit's 2012 rate. Not saying these areas aren't at all bad, but it wouldn't even be #1 for that large of an area. Detroit is still worse.
You really did all that assessing and examined each of Chicago's 77 neighborhoods, factored out all neighborhoods with low crime, and found the population? Yes, the area would still be larger, but Chicago's crime # overall is either slightly higher or the same as D's., due to the fact that Detroit is basically all out bad excluding it's downtown, and half of Chicago's neighborhoods or so have lower crime rates. If you've actually dedicated that much time to finding those #'s, then I'll believe it. Some proof would be nice
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