Pilsen and gang violence? (Chicago, Evanston: apartments, violent crime, house)

[eazy123]

Pilsen really aint that safe. The last few years ive lived it and it was better but within the last few months gang violence over here is getting worse again. I think it may lead to pilsen like 20 years ago in about 5 years if this keeps going on but thats my opinion and i live by wood and 18th

[ChiNaan]

Originally Posted by eazy123

Pilsen really aint that safe. The last few years ive lived it and it was better but within the last few months gang violence over here is getting worse again. I think it may lead to pilsen like 20 years ago in about 5 years if this keeps going on but thats my opinion and i live by wood and 18th

Hardly. Yes, there's violence, and any amount is too much, but it's been on a steady decline, despite the occasional flare-ups. There have been 4 homicides per year for the past three years, in a neighborhood of 36,000. That's not great, but it's pretty standard for middle-of-the-road Chicago neighborhoods, and isn't much different than small towns I've lived in with similar population.

Homicides in the past 3 years in selected community areas, per the Red Eye tracker:

Lower West Side (Pilsen): 12
Logan Square: 6
Near North Side: 9
Uptown: 13
Lake View: 6
Rogers Park: 15
Edgewater: 12
Bridgeport: 9
Albany Park: 8
Irving Park: 7
West Town: 13

Etc.

There are a few community areas with only 1 or 2 during that time, and a few others with 50 or 60 during that time, but most fall into the general range of the above neighborhoods. It's also worth noting that while many of the above neighborhoods had their rates go up during that time as part of this year's city-wide increase, Pilsen did not.

[chet everett]

Originally Posted by ChiNaan

...There have been 4 homicides per year for the past three years, in a neighborhood of 36,000. That's not great, but it's pretty standard for middle-of-the-road Chicago neighborhoods, and isn't much different than small towns I've lived in with similar population.
...

What the heck kind of small towns have you lived in?

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr...000/00sec2.pdf

[ChiNaan]

Originally Posted by chet everett

What the heck kind of small towns have you lived in?

Relatively safe ones, actually. Even they tend to have one or two murders a year if they have 30-40k people. Dangerous ones have far more.

If something in that 200 page report you inked to indicates otherwise, you'll need to cite it for me specifically. I enjoy reading non-fiction, but that's a bit much for me to go through at 10 on a weeknight.

[chet everett]

No friend, not relatively safe at all. Page eleven: " rural counties and cities outside metropolitan areas reported murder rates of 3.8 per 100,000 inhabitants". Do the math -- murder rate under FOUR per hundred thousand is the national average for counties / cities outside metro areas. You are trying to saying three times that number for an area with a little more a third the population is OK? Dude, that is NUTS -- rate would be like NINE TIMES the average...

Originally Posted by ChiNaan

Relatively safe ones, actually. Even they tend to have one or two murders a year if they have 30-40k people. Dangerous ones have far more.

If something in that 200 page report you inked to indicates otherwise, you'll need to cite it for me specifically. I enjoy reading non-fiction, but that's a bit much for me to go through at 10 on a weeknight.

[ChiNaan]

Originally Posted by chet everett

Page eleven: " rural counties and cities outside metropolitan areas reported murder rates of 3.8 per 100,000 inhabitants".

In other words, about one per 25K people, which is exactly in line with what I said about 1-2 in places of 30-40K. Thanks for going through that much effort to reinforce my point.

So Pilsen has 4 for 36k. If the difference between "safe" and "dangerous" is the difference between a 1 in 25,000 chance of getting killed any given year and a 1 in 9,000 chance of getting killed any given year, I'll take those odds to live in a place I like.

[Chi-town Native]

Originally Posted by chet everett

No friend, not relatively safe at all. Page eleven: " rural counties and cities outside metropolitan areas reported murder rates of 3.8 per 100,000 inhabitants". Do the math -- murder rate under FOUR per hundred thousand is the national average for counties / cities outside metro areas. You are trying to saying three times that number for an area with a little more a third the population is OK? Dude, that is NUTS -- rate would be like NINE TIMES the average...

That's never going to change, as felons are statistically more likely to relocate into a large urban area upon their release from the correctional system.

Big cities offer many great things, but they also provide anonymity. You get out of Statesville for a serious crime, are you going back to your small town of 35,000 people where everybody knows what you did & nobody will give you a job or do you try Chicago?

[Vlajos]

Originally Posted by ChiNaan

In other words, about one per 25K people, which is exactly in line with what I said about 1-2 in places of 30-40K. Thanks for going through that much effort to reinforce my point.

So Pilsen has 4 for 36k. If the difference between "safe" and "dangerous" is the difference between a 1 in 25,000 chance of getting killed any given year and a 1 in 9,000 chance of getting killed any given year, I'll take those odds to live in a place I like.

How many are random murders?

[Monsoon2021]

Hello, I seen this thread, I am moving to 18th and blue island in a few weeks.....I like to jog, and ride bike. I am already from rochester, ny with a high murder rate but i am still nervous for this isnt a big city like chicago. I am white , 26 and have a black girlfriend who is 30..Does anyone forsee any random violence our way.....also I do box and have got jumped before, so if i get jumped and whoop up on whoever it may be. Do i need to worry about retaliation? Thanks, also please give me a heads up on bad corners to stay away from.

[chet everett]

If you "get jumped" let the attacker take your wallet, give you a kick & run back to his pals. If you try to fight odds are that you'll find out the hardway that the punk also had a knife or gun for back-up...

The odds of encountering "randomn violence" are genrally greatly reduced by "minding your damned business" and avoiding the obvious crime centers. Pilsen has lots of supporters so I would stick to the well traveled corridors and you ought not run out of options.

Mixed race couples often feel safest around the sort of liberal havens like Oak Park, Evanston & Hyde Park but the key is to avoid the most "hard core" areas where such relationships are likely to incite bad feelings. That typically means the worst of the traditional African American ghettos for your safety...