Coronavirus (Los Angeles, Sacramento, Oakland: instructors, home, middle school)

[JGC97]

Originally Posted by As Above So Below...

Case rates are similar PER CAPITA. Total population size is irrelevant.

Honestly, you accuse the right of making this political but reading your posts, you are also trying really hard to make this political.

This has been political since 2020 so nothing new here. smh

[goodheathen]

I'm thinking that Catalina Island is the community in California most likely to get rid of COVID-19 in the not-distant future. There first would have to be a vaccine that's hard for COVID-19 to break through. Also, Catalina would have to be willing to turn away many tourists. It would be nice if someone could set up an affordable living space on a safe island for highly vulnerable people who don't need much special medical care. Edit: technically few islands can get rid of the virus, because seals get it, but that shouldn't impact humans.

[goodheathen]

Omicron supplanting Delta story
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-...alia/100747762
But there's a surprise. Look at the graph. At least as of December, the Alpha variant persisted in Australia at low levels. Why couldn't the more contagious Delta do the same? The idea that variants of a very durable virus are easy to knock off by any means doesn't add up logically.

[ThinkingOutsideTheBox]

Originally Posted by roadwarrior101

We probably need more to keep the numbers comparably lower. In some of states in New England the demographics are much different and most people will do the right thing on their own.

Vermont doesn't have any ghettos or high crime areas. Bay Area has far bigger fish to fry than trying to prevent every Covid case. For example, BART ridership is down more due to crime and lawlessness than fear of getting Covid on the train. A healthy person under 50 is far more likely to die of murder in Oakland than of Covid.

[roadwarrior101]

Originally Posted by ThinkingOutsideTheBox

Vermont doesn't have any ghettos or high crime areas. Bay Area has far bigger fish to fry than trying to prevent every Covid case. For example, BART ridership is down more due to crime and lawlessness than fear of getting Covid on the train. A healthy person under 50 is far more likely to die of murder in Oakland than of Covid.

Most Bay Area residents wouldn't step foot in the rough parts of Oakland, so their lives aren't in imminent danger from gun violence. This is something pretty easy to avoid. On the other hand, you can be in an affluent part of the Bay Area and come into contact with anyone who may be spreading the virus (either knowingly or unknowingly).

[CA4Now]

Originally Posted by As Above So Below...

People were more open to the smallpox vaccine.

Different values back then.

...while early vaccines reduced smallpox’s power, it still existed: An outbreak hit New York City in 1947. It demonstrated that the vaccines were not 100% effective in everyone forever: 47-year-old Eugene Le Bar, the first fatality, had a smallpox vaccine scar. Israel Weinstein, the city’s health commissioner, held a news conference urging all New Yorkers to get vaccinated against smallpox, whether for the first time or what we would now call a “booster shot.”

The mayor and President Truman got vaccinated on camera. In less than one month, 6.35 million New Yorkers were vaccinated, in a city of 7.8 million. The final toll of the New York outbreak: 12 cases of smallpox, resulting in 2 deaths.

Our country’s final outbreak affected 8 people in the Rio Grande Valley in 1949.

In 1959, the World Health Organization announced a plan to eradicate smallpox globally with vaccinations. The disease was declared eradicated in 1980.

https://www.latimes.com/science/stor...-the-last-ones

[As Above So Below...]

Originally Posted by goodheathen

Omicron supplanting Delta story
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-...alia/100747762
But there's a surprise. Look at the graph. At least as of December, the Alpha variant persisted in Australia at low levels. Why couldn't the more contagious Delta do the same? The idea that variants of a very durable virus are easy to knock off by any means doesn't add up logically.

The article you link makes no mention of Alpha. It mentions two different Delta linages and references them against Omicron.

The irony is that the link you posted is arguing the opposite of what you are.

[goodheathen]

Originally Posted by As Above So Below...

The article you link makes no mention of Alpha. It mentions two different Delta linages and references them against Omicron.

The irony is that the link you posted is arguing the opposite of what you are.

*looks again*
Weird that AV stands for Delta on the chart and there are two different Delta strains.

But that also led to clicking on the chart and discussion there that the chart is misleading and Delta cases might not have fallen in absolute terms.
"Ok, thanks. Reasonable to assume the Delta is not only co-circulating but has grown significantly, which is not great news if we’re banking on Omicron outcompeting Delta."
It goes on to blame unvaccinated and waning immunity.

I think the most plausible explanation for how Delta might not go extinct even if everyone is exposed to Omicron is household transmission: anything spreads exponentially there (if multiple people share a unit), unless antivirals are used quickly on at least the source.

Delta vs. Omicron isn't a huge deal. Future variants should be the concern.

[As Above So Below...]

Originally Posted by stablegenius

That poster will find any ounce of negativity in any story. And if not can be found? They'll inject it.

Im not sure what that even means. If there is anyone on this thread that is negative, it certainly isnt me.

Originally Posted by goodheathen

*looks again*
Weird that AV stands for Delta on the chart and there are two different Delta strains.

But that also led to clicking on the chart and discussion there that the chart is misleading and Delta cases might not have fallen in absolute terms.
"Ok, thanks. Reasonable to assume the Delta is not only co-circulating but has grown significantly, which is not great news if we’re banking on Omicron outcompeting Delta."
It goes on to blame unvaccinated and waning immunity.

The article you posted, again, is saying the opposite. Omicron is outcompeting Delta and its on its way out. Thats from your link.

As for the chart, lineages are different than variants:

https://cov-lineages.org/lineage_list.html

[goodheathen]

The headline is "Omicron COVID strain takes over in Australia, but experts say Delta is still circulating and boosters are critical"
so I made an honest mistake (it's actually AY, not AV) whereas you as usual...

And unless Omicron wipes out Delta internationally, it can come back anywhere eventually. What a long, rather unimportant argument.