Why has Butler County always been seen as a Republican stronghold considering how urbanised and diverse it is? (Mason: universities, live)

[Jbraybarten653]

Here's a good, recent article population change in Ohio. It's more about general population trends, but Butler is noted and it's interesting nonetheless.


https://www.daytondailynews.com/comm...EDKKDJHX34PC4/

[Doughboy1918]

Originally Posted by Jbraybarten653

That 400K is mostly sprawl because of Cincinnati. The legacy towns in the county would not grow to anywhere near that population. In fact, the county would likely look like other rust belt counties if it were on its own.

Eh, personally I’m not sure if Butler County is that emblematic of the rust belt. It only had between 30-40% loss in total number of manufacturing jobs between 1960-2000, and the counties’ industry has now very much diversified into the service economy, including retailing, education, finance and healthcare.

[TomJones123]

Originally Posted by Jbraybarten653

Here's a good, recent article population change in Ohio. It's more about general population trends, but Butler is noted and it's interesting nonetheless.


https://www.daytondailynews.com/comm...EDKKDJHX34PC4/

Thanks for the link. Interesting that Miami County is adding population which covers the towns north of Dayton..Piqua, Troy, Vandalia, etc.

Im thinking that Clark county's shrinkage is due to Springfield seaching for a bottom somewhere...who know if that will happen.

Dark county is understandable as I doubt there are too many job opportunities out in the country. Lot of farmers in the area and their lives are hard as it is. With govt messing with them, Monsanto messing with them, and the fact that farming doesn't pay very much and requires a boatload of hours. Most farmers work day jobs and farm evenings and weekends.

The article is Dayton daily news so they lumped Butler and Warren counties in with their own counties, but you can see the overlap is strong. Butler and Warren counties are the ones with the most growth and the exact counties connecting the Dayton MSA to Cincy's MSA. Wonder how much longer the gummint will ignore this trend to keep federal money flowing to C-Bus.

[TomJones123]

Originally Posted by Doughboy1918

Eh, personally I’m not sure if Butler County is that emblematic of the rust belt. It only had between 30-40% loss in total number of manufacturing jobs between 1960-2000, and the counties’ industry has now very much diversified into the service economy, including retailing, education, finance and healthcare.

Butler is a lot like Hamilton county in the sense that even though the Cincy MSA was stongly impacted by manufacturing jobs leacving the Cincy MSA is actually quite diverse economically and that definately runs up into Butler county, especially just north of 275 heaging up further into Hamilton, Westchester, etc. So, I agree with you that Butler is not really the belweather for rust-belt anything, though Cincy has shared in the rust-belt blues. However, nothing on par with what happened with Dayton and Toledo for example: cities that were Detroit reliant and as Detroit's fate has unfolded so to has that fate been shared in inner city Dayton and Toledo, Cleveland even to a marked degree, etc. Cleveland was hit really hard but is a big enough and robust enough city to eventually rebound.

[mike1003]

Originally Posted by Doughboy1918

Also having now re-read this, is it really that white? Because it's one of the few counties in Ohio to have a substantially large Hispanic population, something the state of Ohio (despite being considered a bellwether for American culture, trends and politics) I feel has always lacked compared to other states for whatever reason.

It's a reasonably diverse county. Probably white majority, but lots of Indian and Nepalese, Hispanics, Asians and blacks


We have a little of everything on our street

[ohio_peasant]

Originally Posted by TomJones123

It may be a bit on the presumptous side assuming that white = republican.There are a lot of white democrats as well, though that may not be the case in Butler county. It may be more of a lifestyle preference: I.E. white country people may tend to vote republican based on talking points from politicians that match said voter's values. Where the opposite may be more common for urban areas, where you tend to have more white democrats based on values/preferences.

Having spent some time in SW Ohio and more recently in Los Angeles and its environs, some personal observations:

1. In the larger cities, political leanings and race, don't have an obvious correlation.

2. In the smaller cities, towns and rural expanses, the white people tend to be more conservative/Republican, across socioeconomic class.

3. The more left-leaning whites in the smaller and less-dense communities often tend to gravitate towards the cities. Those who remain are thus the more conservative.

4. The notable exceptions to (2) are college towns, tourist towns and the occasional tony enclave serving as a bedroom community to the big-city. There one might find left-leaning whites, even among the affluent.

Where this leaves places such as Butler County, is that its cities are too small to fit under (1). They've experienced trends under (3). There are pockets of (4), but not enough to overwhelm the average. The result is (2).

[TomJones123]

Originally Posted by ohio_peasant

Having spent some time in SW Ohio and more recently in Los Angeles and its environs, some personal observations:

1. In the larger cities, political leanings and race, don't have an obvious correlation.

2. In the smaller cities, towns and rural expanses, the white people tend to be more conservative/Republican, across socioeconomic class.

3. The more left-leaning whites in the smaller and less-dense communities often tend to gravitate towards the cities. Those who remain are thus the more conservative.

4. The notable exceptions to (2) are college towns, tourist towns and the occasional tony enclave serving as a bedroom community to the big-city. There one might find left-leaning whites, even among the affluent.

Where this leaves places such as Butler County, is that its cities are too small to fit under (1). They've experienced trends under (3). There are pockets of (4), but not enough to overwhelm the average. The result is (2).

Thanks for the reasoned and intelligent post, great perspective!

[robertbrianbush]

Originally Posted by Nomomo07

My basic understanding of Butler County is that is where many of the more conservative folks who moved out of Hamilton County went. It is part of why Hamilton County is now a solidly Democratic county, with three Democratic commissioners and all but one of the county-wide elected offices. I think you may have also stumbled upon your own answer. I think the fact that it is a mix of suburban and rural is why it is still so conservative. It is true that suburban areas in the past couple elections have swung more towards the Democratic Party, but not enough to become dominant in those areas. More of a 50/50 split. That coupled with the deep red rural areas of the county seems to be a good explanation for the 60/40 makeup of the county in favor of Republicans.


That is my take, but I'd be curious to hear other opinions on the matter.

Also a heavy Appalachian influence, which tends to be deep red, particularly around Middletown and Hamilton.

[Doughboy1918]

Originally Posted by robertbrianbush

Also a heavy Appalachian influence, which tends to be deep red, particularly around Middletown and Hamilton.

As far as I know, those towns are still mostly German-influenced. Appalachians were dominant migrant groups all over the Midwest at the time, in the mid-20th century. Also if you look at a map of the precinct results of the last presidential election, Middletown was shown to be fairly blue.

[PerryMason614]

You really want to know why suburbs, full of people that fled urban Democrat hellholes, would be Republican? Seriously? It shouldn't take Albert Einstein to figure out why people fleeing the dregs of society would vote against the people who enable them.