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True to a point and agree that Biden isn't popular, but his most likely opponent is Trump. Republicans have made some big gains on Long Island the last couple years and Trump wasn't on the ballot. The turnout dynamics, which have been very favorable for te GOP here the last couple years change considerably with Trump.
Remember trump won both counties in 2016 and barely lost only Nassau in 2020. I still don’t think it’s guaranteed he will be the nominee either.
Remember trump won both counties in 2016 and barely lost only Nassau in 2020. I still don’t think it’s guaranteed he will be the nominee either.
Trump won Long Island as a whole in 2016, but didn't win Nassau (lost Nassau by 6.20%, won Suffolk by 6.84%) In 2020 he lost Nassau by 9.52% and won Suffolk by 0.03% (Suffolk was actually the closest county in the country in 2020), Trump lost the 3rd district under the current lines by 8.6%.
Anyway, main point was it is hard to predict whether or not the recent GOP gains in the area will hold next year as those gains took place during very different turnout dynamics than what we will see during a Presidential year. And of course if Santos does get expelled from Congress it would set up Special Election which would have even different and harder to predict turnout dynamics
Correct, the NC map was found in violation of the federal voting rights act, the NY was in violation of the state constitution which forbids gerrymandering via that referendum, two completely different issues. The new NC map was not as favorable to the GOP as the first. If NY gets to redraw I doubt their map will be as blatant as before.
North Carolina had several go arounds on this. The violation of Federal Voting Rights Act was one of the 2010's maps that was thrown out, but the one thrown out prior to 2022 was for the State Constitution and overturned by the North Carolina State Supreme Court. NC however doesn't have a voter passed referendum and the new state court took a different view of the State Constitution regrading gerrymandering,
The map that was put in place in North Carolina was very similar to the one thrown out, created 10 safe GOP seats, 3 safe Dem seats and 1 swing seat in what is basically a 50/50 state. Now another proposal did away with the swing seat and created a 11-3 map, that ultimately did not get passed, in part due to fears that it could get thrown out. With that said, I do think if the Democrats are successful in being able to redraw maps, they perhaps won't try to go as aggressive as last time to give it a better chance of holding up to challenges.
FWIW, I know we are getting slightly off topic, but do appreciate that we can have a rationale level headed discussion on this, even if we may not always agree
North Carolina had several go arounds on this. The violation of Federal Voting Rights Act was one of the 2010's maps that was thrown out, but the one thrown out prior to 2022 was for the State Constitution and overturned by the North Carolina State Supreme Court. NC however doesn't have a voter passed referendum and the new state court took a different view of the State Constitution regrading gerrymandering,
The map that was put in place in North Carolina was very similar to the one thrown out, created 10 safe GOP seats, 3 safe Dem seats and 1 swing seat in what is basically a 50/50 state. Now another proposal did away with the swing seat and created a 11-3 map, that ultimately did not get passed, in part due to fears that it could get thrown out. With that said, I do think if the Democrats are successful in being able to redraw maps, they perhaps won't try to go as aggressive as last time to give it a better chance of holding up to challenges.
FWIW, I know we are getting slightly off topic, but do appreciate that we can have a rationale level headed discussion on this, even if we may not always agree
Same you are obviously very knowledgeable. And I stand corrected you are right the NC case the last one was state Supreme Court not voting rights act. As for Trump you are right the turnout dynamics are extremely hard to predict. In fact im baffled how this next election will turn out as we are dealing with so many unprecedented factors. If there is a special election though (and they are able to even do one in time) they only serve out the remainder of Santos’ term then have to run again in the general, am I correct in that?
Same you are obviously very knowledgeable. And I stand corrected you are right the NC case the last one was state Supreme Court not voting rights act. As for Trump you are right the turnout dynamics are extremely hard to predict. In fact im baffled how this next election will turn out as we are dealing with so many unprecedented factors. If there is a special election though (and they are able to even do one in time) they only serve out the remainder of Santos’ term then have to run again in the general, am I correct in that?
Appreciate it, thanks. Just to clarify I don't think that the turnout with Trump will be that hard to predict. For or against, Trump is a turnout driver so it will likely be strong across the board on both sides with him on the ballot.
Yes, you are correct, whoever wins the Special Election if one were to occur would only serve the reminder of Santos's term. The winner would then still need to seek re-election in November for the full two-year term. In addition, if redistricting were to occur, it would not impact a Special Election. The Special Election would be held under the current lines, and the election in November would be held under the new lines.
Appreciate it, thanks. Just to clarify I don't think that the turnout with Trump will be that hard to predict. For or against, Trump is a turnout driver so it will likely be strong across the board on both sides with him on the ballot.
Yes, you are correct, whoever wins the Special Election if one were to occur would only serve the reminder of Santos's term. The winner would then still need to seek re-election in November for the full two-year term. In addition, if redistricting were to occur, it would not impact a Special Election. The Special Election would be held under the current lines, and the election in November would be held under the new lines.
Thank you for clarifying!
Also just to clarify I didn't mean the turnout would be tough to predict I just mean the outcome in general. We have 2 unpopular very likely candidates one of which may have several criminal convictions and could even be serving a sentence before the election itself. I don't think any political observer has ever seen an election season like this one before.
Trump won Long Island as a whole in 2016, but didn't win Nassau (lost Nassau by 6.20%, won Suffolk by 6.84%) In 2020 he lost Nassau by 9.52% and won Suffolk by 0.03% (Suffolk was actually the closest county in the country in 2020), Trump lost the 3rd district under the current lines by 8.6%.
Anyway, main point was it is hard to predict whether or not the recent GOP gains in the area will hold next year as those gains took place during very different turnout dynamics than what we will see during a Presidential year. And of course if Santos does get expelled from Congress it would set up Special Election which would have even different and harder to predict turnout dynamics
As have said that is one reason why don't believe Santos will be expelled.
While NYS democrats would obviously love to slot one of their own into that seat the dynamics (and expense) of calling a special election are just too dear for a term that ends in a year anyway.
Also as have said GOP has such a slim majority in House they need every warm body can get. In Santos GOP leadership has a tame lap dog. They will say "jump" and he'll respond "how high?" If he refuses to play ball GOP leadership can always hold expulsion from House over his head.
Santos is an oily git of a drama queen. He loves the perks and status being member of House bestows. He's not going to give all that up now especially knowing he's not going to be around after this term.
Furthermore Santos also knows his name is mud far as LI and NYS republicans are concerned. Thus he shouldn't expect any political appointments or assistance in landing future jobs as is wont to happen with other senators or representatives that leave office.
Like AOC and others who came from nowhere to land a seat in House this is the best paying gig Santos has had in his life thus far. He needs that steady paycheck (which isn't peanuts) for various reasons including fact he'll never no more likely get a job that pays anything near. His legal bills are mounting and what's he going to do after 2024 for money?
As have said that is one reason why don't believe Santos will be expelled.
While NYS democrats would obviously love to slot one of their own into that seat the dynamics (and expense) of calling a special election are just too dear for a term that ends in a year anyway.
Also as have said GOP has such a slim majority in House they need every warm body can get. In Santos GOP leadership has a tame lap dog. They will say "jump" and he'll respond "how high?" If he refuses to play ball GOP leadership can always hold expulsion from House over his head.
Santos is an oily git of a drama queen. He loves the perks and status being member of House bestows. He's not going to give all that up now especially knowing he's not going to be around after this term.
Furthermore Santos also knows his name is mud far as LI and NYS republicans are concerned. Thus he shouldn't expect any political appointments or assistance in landing future jobs as is wont to happen with other senators or representatives that leave office.
Like AOC and others who came from nowhere to land a seat in House this is the best paying gig Santos has had in his life thus far. He needs that steady paycheck (which isn't peanuts) for various reasons including fact he'll never no more likely get a job that pays anything near. His legal bills are mounting and what's he going to do after 2024 for money?
Santos is a criminal first, and loser second. Let the door hit him on his way out. The only thing he stands for is himself and his wallet.
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