2023 Hurricane Season (General Thread - Atlantic, East/Central Pacific) (climate, America, predictions)

[Psychoma]

Fri 14July 8aEDT:
Atlantic: 94L became Sub-TS Don far out at sea. No threat. Otherwise quiet.
E Pac: Area behind Calvin 20% chance forms, out to sea.
C Pac (Hawaii): Watch remnants of Calvin for mid next week.

[Psychoma]

Sun 16July:
Atlantic & E Pac look real quiet this week (see separate Calvin and Don post). Watching tropical waves between Africa and Caribbean again starting next week perhaps.

[Psychoma]

Wed 19July 8pEDT:
Atlantic: Area just off Africa 20% chance. Looks like if anything developed reaches East Caribbean around Tuesday. Lot of social media chatter but this can be typical of late July when waiting on something to finally form. Some model support but it's there one minute, and gone the next, so a waiting game.


East Pac: 60% chance of short lived system well out at sea.

[Psychoma]

Thurs 20Jul 8pEDT:
Atlantic: Area between Africa & Caribbean, NHC up to 30% chance. Low Pressure has formed this evening . Models not as supportive as earlier but they've been on/off about it, having a Low form may give them something to bite onto so we'll see what tomorrow brings. Plenty of time to watch still. Looks like this may have been designated as invest 95L for tracking purposes.

[Psychoma]

Fri 21July midday:

Atlantic: 95L at 40% chance. Nice spin, storms firing, but literally developing on the line of dry/moist air. Will need to not bring dry air into core to build. Models suggest stays West into Caribbean, high pressure likely blocks path North of the islands, at least between now and mid-week next week.
East Pac: the area well out there now TD4E. Short lived low end system.

[Psychoma]

Fri 21July 8pEDT/AST 95L now 70% chance develops. Pulsing storms all day, but EXTREMELY small system. If can keep storms going steady then likely to develop as long as doesn't ingest nearby dry air. Models mostly bring it straight into central Caribbean waters where wind shear may await it (storms don't like).


Another wave to roll off Africa behind it to watch. But will be a few days before we know more.

[LKJ1988]

Nothing worth talking about. Too much dry air aloft and shear for weeks.

[Psychoma]

Sat 22July 2pEDT:
Atlantic: 95L's little storm Friday has ran off ahead during the night and has spent all day today chasing it. Easterly wind shear pushing it ahead of the low level center. So nothing major today expected, they like to be vertically aligned. NHC has lowered development chance to 60% accordingly.


East Pac: TD4e well off between Mexico and Hawaii has fizzled out without ever getting a name. Quiet otherwise for now East/Central Pac.

[Psychoma]

Sun 23July 95L down to 40% chance. Scattered showers still coming to the Lesser Antilles but models have continued to back off development.

[Psychoma]

Mon 24July 8pEDT:
Atlantic (3 areas):
-95L scattered showers to Lesser Antilles as moves thru. NHC with 10% development chance. Wind shear awaits it in Caribbean.

-Area between Bermuda and Puerto Rico moving slowly towards SE US. Some models into FL, some curve up along the Carolina coast. Was going to mention tonight anyways as has been blips in the models, but NHC now watching with 20% tropical development chance. Regardless of 'development', scattered shower beach weather chances for coastal regions possibly end of week / weekend.

-Area to emerge off Africa later in the week may have initial favorable environment to develop if can maintain storms. Models tend to bring near or North of the Caribbean, but not many models show it after that point. Wait and see thing. Some interesting model runs posted on social sites but past a week out models aren't reliable so can ignore those 'fantasy' ghost storms that far out in time.