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Sun 21May:
-storms North of Puerto Rico / E of Bahamas NHC has at low 10% further development chances. Heading North, not expected to become anything.
-models have been hinting at a coastal Low riding up/ offshore of US East coast next weekend-ish. This time of year these can develop some tropical characteristics. Hopefully far enough offshore for the Memorial Day weekend.
Wed 24May 2pEDT: NHC has marked the Southeast coastal Low for this week as low 10% chance of subtropical/tropical development (its what you do this time of year since the Gulf Stream current is just offshore). But this is still expected to be a Low moving into the Carolina’s region late this week into the weekend (rain, windy, rough surf, etc.).
You've got it about right - I'm about a 45-minute drive from the NC OBX, and we had a cool front move in last night. I think that will go offshore and form that coastal low you're talking about. Already got winds out of the NNE. Had to put a sweater on inside this AM.
Tuesday, 30May 2pEDT: NHC has area of storms/showers in Gulf of Mexico marked at low 10-20% chance tropical development next several days as makes its way towards and across Florida into the Atlantic. Official start date to the season is Thursday!
Never will become anything to go nuts over as the upper levels are never right this time of year. Pray i at least get some rain after 6 months of none.
"In regards to the tropics, keep in mind that we already have had one declared system this past January (a no-named storm), and that the presence of stronger upper westerlies with the El Nino episode will cut back on the number, strength, and U.S. damage potential from hurricanes and other systems. The Caribbean and open Atlantic waters will have the best (limited) potential for tropical cyclones, while the western and eastern equatorial waters of the Pacific Basin should see increased numbers over recent years"
And to kick off the start of Atlantic & Central Pacific Hurricane season today, 1June, invest 91L in Gulf of Mexico now 50% chance of tropical development as drifts around / Southward, still giving mainly Florida disturbed weather chances next few days (maybe). Hurricane Hunter plane will check out in person this afternoon.
Thurs 1Jun: 91L better organized, air recon will take a look soon. NHC now with high 70% chance of development. Wind shear expected to weaken whatever becomes of it this weekend tho.
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