2023 Hurricane Season (General Thread - Atlantic, East/Central Pacific) (house, Tampa Bay, pressure)

[Psychoma]

Mon 21Aug 10aCDT/11aEDT PTC9: Winds 30mph(45km/h), moving West 16mph(26km/h), pressure 1008mb.

Expected to make landfall Tuesday morning as a 45mph Tropical Storm.

TS Warning TX/Mexico border Northward to Port O'Connor, TS Watch from North of there to Sargent, TX.

Rain: 3-5in, isolated 7in South TX. 4-6in, isolated 10in Northern Mexico.
Surge of 1-3ft.

[Psychoma]

Tues 22Aug 8pEDT:
Atlantic:
-Emily's remnants decided to come back to life, NHC 50% redevelops as recurves out to sea.
-92L behind that 40% into central Atlantic.
After that, maybe watching wave train from Africa and Western Caribbean mischief perhaps. Nothing solid in the models for a bit really though for now.

E Pac: area along S Mexico may form a small short lived system this weekend, NHC 60%

[Psychoma]

Thurs 24Aug 8aEDT:
Atlantic:
-Emily remnants 70% chance redevelops
-92L behind it 40%.
-Scattered showers along Central America in Eastern Pacific looks to head North into Western Caribbean / Eastern Gulf approaching FL to start next week - may spin up (models split still on this), NHC 50%.

This pattern is more typical of October than August with Franklin and the possible Gulf system tracks.

E Pac:
2 areas along S Mexico, 91E & 92E, both high chance of development.

[floridarebel]

Will likely just be a weak hit for Florida.

[Psychoma]

Thurs 24Aug 8pEDT:
Atlantic:
-Emily remnants 40%
-92L behind it 50%
-East Gulf 70% - scattered showers SE of Yucatan in W Caribbean. So the GFS is the odd man out now - with just some showers moving towards FL early next week. Even the GFS ensembles are mostly quiet. Most other models have a Tropical Storm, some even maybe Cat1 into anywhere along FL's West coast or Eastern Panhandle region. Then models take up along the Atlantic side up by GA, Carolina's and SE VA or more inland that direction. Because most models (except GFS) agree something tries to form, confidence is considered higher that something will. But what may form is harder to say since something hasn't actually formed yet to give the models a starting point. Some wind shear may be present to help keep it in check some too.
Timing: Possibly starts development this weekend, may be watching something early to mid week approach FL. Then along Carolina's Thursday-ish. We'll see if GFS won this round or missed it.


E Pac:
-91e along S Mexico 70%.
-92e 80% out to sea.

[Psychoma]

Fri 25Aug 8aEDT:
Atlantic:
-Emily remnants 20%
-92L behind it 50%
-Gulf area 70% - GFS finally shows as well. Overall a sloppy stretched out low to mid level Tropical Storm is probably average of model runs at this time.

E Pac:
-91e 40%
-92e 80%

[Psychoma]

Fri 25Aug 8pEDT:
Atlantic:
-Emily remnants 0% chance develops.
-92L behind it 40%
-New area eventually comes off Africa 20%
-93L Gulf: Low to meander around near Yucatan then make it's approach towards FL as head into next week (early Wednesday landfall perhaps). NHC with 80% chance development.

E Pac:
91e 30%
92e 90%

[Psychoma]

Sat 26Aug 2aEDT NHC with 90% chance of Gulf system 93L development. Storms bubbling this morning between Yucatan and Cuba near sunrise. It's found a small pocket of low wind shear to try and organize.

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by floridarebel

Will likely just be a weak hit for Florida.

Love it to be a Cat 1 and stall in the gulf northwest of me for days. I need 40" of rain to make up for 4 dry years. Hope it don't track too far west or we won't get much of anything.

I need 6" of rain for this month to break even. Driest Aug ever.

[Psychoma]

Sat 26Aug 415pEDT: 93L near tip of Yucatan and Cuba becomes Tropical Depression 10. NHC will initiate advisories at 5p including cone map, any watch and warnings.