2023 Hurricane Season (General Thread - Atlantic, East/Central Pacific) (october, Mexico, Florida)

[LKJ1988]

Dust is making it a bust. Just another dead year so far.

[Psychoma]

Sat 8pEDT:
Atlantic:
-98L (East Atlantic) 70% chance.
-99L (between 98L and Caribbean) has become Tropical Depression 6.
-90L (over Eastern Caribbean) 70%.
-Gulf 50%.
-New area coming off Africa 30%.

E Pac: 20% chance South of Mexico.


Detail:
FYI: the invest numbers run 90 to 99 then start over at 90. The L represents Atlantic basin.

98L: May be short lived, but surrounded by dry air and likely fish storm out to sea.

TD6: pushing into dry air, not the most organized with partially exposed low level center, wind shear present. Short lived as moves W/WNW.

90L: Nice spin of scattered showers moving through Windward Islands of the Eastern Caribbean. Wind shear North / NW of it. This one could be a little more interesting just due to steering flow may turn it North or meander around a bit towards Northern Caribbean maybe eventually into SW Atlantic.

Gulf: Area near S Florida should move quickly West across Gulf towards TX/North Mexico, models say may develop just as comes inland there Tuesday-ish.

New area off Africa may follow 98L out to sea.

[Psychoma]

Sunday - 98L becomes TS Emily, located about midway between Africa and Caribbean.

[Psychoma]

Sunday 20Aug 2pEDT:
Atlantic:
-91L Gulf 60% chance tropical formation as moves West.
-90L 90% East Caribbean to turn North, may meander some after Hispaniola. Air recon checking out today to see what we have.
-Area off Africa 60%, following Emily.


E Pac: Area S of Mexico 20%.

[Psychoma]

Here's some of the model guidance for 90L in Caribbean. Turn North and meander looks like.

[Psychoma]

90L becomes TS Franklin in Eastern Caribbean.

[Psychoma]

Sun 20Aug 8pEDT:
Atlantic:
-91L (Gulf) 70% chance, better organized. Large High over central US will force what ever becomes of it towards Texas/Mexico region.
-TD6 just E of Caribbean a mess, not expected to last long.
-Area off Africa now 70% chance, following Emily.


E Pac: 20% S of Mexico.

[Cambium]

https://twitter.com/SimonStormRider/...ztLTeTQZw&s=19

3 Atlantic tropical cyclones formed over 24 short hours (TD6, Emily, Franklin). The historic tropical cyclone outbreak this weekend was matched only by August 22, 1995, and August 15, 1893

[Psychoma]

TD6 became TS Gert a little after midnight Sunday into Monday.

[Psychoma]

Mon 21Aug 1030aEDT: 91L in Gulf of Mexico now PTC9 - so at 11aEDT they’ll issue Tropical Storm Watches, five day cone map, etc. Heading to Texas/Mexico region.