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View Poll Results: Which region will get the most snow?
1: Yellow 0 0%
2: Orange 2 7.14%
3: Pink 8 28.57%
4: Blue 12 42.86%
5: White 6 21.43%
Voters: 28. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 01-16-2019, 07:35 AM
 
585 posts, read 493,176 times
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Looks like a snow changing to rain event for Northern New Jersey right now.
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Old 01-16-2019, 10:51 AM
 
Location: Southern New Hampshire
10,049 posts, read 18,083,414 times
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Post #38 shows us (southwest NH) in the 6-12" band. I'd be OK with that, as I don't mind snow at all, even a LOT of snow, as long as we don't lose power. But alas, right now our forecast (weather.com) says 8-12" of snow on Saturday plus another 8-12" of snow AND ICE on Sunday.

It's the ice that terrifies me!

Cambium, is this predicted to be the light, fluffy kind of snow (in which case outages aren't likely) or the heavy wet stuff (in which case they ARE probably likely)?

What concerns me the most is the possibility of 20" of snow plus ice plus power outages -- with temps falling overnight into the negative numbers.
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Old 01-16-2019, 10:54 AM
 
Location: Indiana Uplands
26,430 posts, read 46,615,085 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by karen_in_nh_2012 View Post
Post #38 shows us (southwest NH) in the 6-12" band. I'd be OK with that, as I don't mind snow at all, even a LOT of snow, as long as we don't lose power. But alas, right now our forecast (weather.com) says 8-12" of snow on Saturday plus another 8-12" of snow AND ICE on Sunday.

It's the ice that terrifies me!

Cambium, is this predicted to be the light, fluffy kind of snow (in which case outages aren't likely) or the heavy wet stuff (in which case they ARE probably likely)?

What concerns me the most is the possibility of 20" of snow plus ice plus power outages -- with temps falling overnight into the negative numbers.
It appears it will be mostly snow and sleet events with no ice accretion for SW NH in the Monadnock region.
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Old 01-16-2019, 10:59 AM
 
Location: Sector 001
15,946 posts, read 12,297,747 times
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I live in Brookings SD and they (NOAA) are only predicting 4 inches here. I'm always looking at NAM, GFS, and European models. For the last 2 storms the GFS has been closest in storm totals and the GFS right now is predicting more snow with a further north track than the NOAA is for this area (which puts it right over me) so we'll see what happens. Typically these models tend to overestimate by a bit though so I think their estimates are safe and good. Still I like to keep a record of this stuff. Then we go down to -20F with for around here is not that abnormal. I'm hoping we a can get that total up to 6 inches, though I'll take 10 if GFS is right.

https://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS...SNOW_111HR.gif

Here's the snowfall estimates from the NOAA for our area:

https://www.weather.gov/fsd/stormtotalsnow

We should make a subforum here at city-data for people to discuss specific storm systems. There used to be a couple of other forums for that but both shut down and now we're kind of in limbo with that. Invite all the hardcore weather nuts and meteorologists and make this their new home. I don't think this forum is going anywhere any time soon. I miss having a spot where people post all their weather models for winter storms. Looks like you guys have started doing that here already. That's great!

Last edited by sholomar; 01-16-2019 at 11:29 AM..
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Old 01-16-2019, 02:57 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,540 posts, read 75,390,209 times
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Sorry for lack of posts, got busy with life.


Quote:
Originally Posted by karen_in_nh_2012 View Post
Cambium, is this predicted to be the light, fluffy kind of snow (in which case outages aren't likely) or the heavy wet stuff (in which case they ARE probably likely)?

Should start out as high ratios (fluff stuff), then depending how close the storm comes you may get the cement snow for a while before the changeover. It may not even change over but I don't think you'll be ALL fluff.

Quote:
Originally Posted by stockwiz View Post
We should make a subforum here at city-data for people to discuss specific storm systems.

nice to see you here!! Nice post. Hope you continue. Yeah, I like these storm threads, easy to look back on and see the evolution of them and who was posting what.


Possible Frontogenesis setting up for NYC area.


This could get interesting.
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Old 01-16-2019, 04:00 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,540 posts, read 75,390,209 times
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It's been expanded and shifted south. I'm in the 3-6" now but the 6-12" not far off. I'm thinking I get half foot of snow then starts changing to sleet. #BackBreakingShoveling


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Old 01-16-2019, 04:06 PM
 
Location: New Jersey
15,318 posts, read 17,229,581 times
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Fingers crossed for a good snowstorm in Northern NJ.

Here's the current forecast from the NWS (including Monday because look at that high! ) :

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Old 01-16-2019, 04:22 PM
 
Location: Southern New Hampshire
10,049 posts, read 18,083,414 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GraniteStater View Post
It appears it will be mostly snow and sleet events with no ice accretion for SW NH in the Monadnock region.
I hope you are right.

Since I last posted a few hours ago, my forecast (weather.com) has actually changed to say MORE snow -- now it's 8-12" on Saturday night plus another 12" or more on Sunday (it had been 8-12" Saturday night, then another 8-12" on Sunday). I hope this is wrong!! (At least it says 12"+ of SNOW and now doesn't mention ICE!)

Last edited by karen_in_nh_2012; 01-16-2019 at 05:04 PM.. Reason: correct typo!
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Old 01-16-2019, 04:58 PM
 
Location: Cleverly concealed
1,199 posts, read 2,046,120 times
Reputation: 1417
My meteorologists want to wait for the storm to come onshore before going with snow totals in Kansas City. At the moment, they're thinking 2"-5" southwest-to-northeast, with 25-30 mph wind. After last weekend, 5" probably won't seem like a big deal.
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Old 01-16-2019, 05:02 PM
 
Location: Indiana Uplands
26,430 posts, read 46,615,085 times
Reputation: 19585
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
It's been expanded and shifted south. I'm in the 3-6" now but the 6-12" not far off. I'm thinking I get half foot of snow then starts changing to sleet. #BackBreakingShoveling

Disagreement on accumulations closer to the Ohio Valley as other sources have more snowfall than Accuweather which is indicating none on that map.
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