Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
There is clearly a growing support for a sustained negative NAO regime for the northern Atlantic that puts the region in a battle field between Maritime air masses over the northwestern Atlantic and the Tropical Continental air masses coming from the Gulf Coast and Tennessee River Valley.
What really draws my attention in the guidance is the lower heights off the East coast that continue to linger and support the development of low pressure systems around the coastal waters of New England. These low pressure systems will not have a direct impact on the region, but will set up the low level surface winds from the northeast that will create the potential for back door cold fronts and strong sea breeze events for the immediate coast of New Jersey and much of the New York City metropolitan area.
Now, this won’t happen every day obviously, but in this pattern, when the conditions are right, I think there is strong support for powerful thermal gradients to set up. A great example is when Philadelphia and southwestern New Jersey fall under the influence of the Tropical Continental air masses leading to highs in the lower 80’s while the marine time air mass over the New York City metropolitan area keeps temperatures in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s. Central New Jersey will feature an impressive range, especially areas like Monmouth and Middlesex Counties. This is just an example of course.
My point is, don’t get too caught up in the long range MOS guidance that shows temperatures in the 70’s and 80’s for the region just yet. While the models don’t show the threat yet, the 500 MB pattern is ripe for high volatility with temperatures and pesky back door cold fronts
Hopefully Queens won't get affected as much by the back door fronts. In May and June it's more noticeable in Brooklyn and the Rockaways where the temps could be like 10-15 degrees lower than in Manhattan and Queens
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
