Spring 2016 thread (Northern Hemisphere) (Tampa Bay, snowing, hot, warm)
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You and tom are funny lol. I just wonder why in recent years it has been more unstable . I'm not really concerned about Seattle though, I just hope we stay normal the very least.
It always has and always will favor eastern North America. How many times do we have to repeat "North American climate fail" due to rotten geography that couldn't get any better for giving long lasting cold. We have no protection from the Arctic, Greenland blocks combined with the PNA teleconnection, etc, etc. Unlike Central Asia which looks like it should be very cold with all that land around it, we actually are worse off here in eastern NA. The two oceans on either side of us play havoc in the winter with crazy jetstream dips due to those oceans and high and low pressure all winter long. I think our geography stinks if you want to know the truth.
I believe they said in the 1980's the PV lived over Montreal every winter lol. And you wonder why I call the South a marginal subtropical climate. It is precisely because of the extreme events which seem to happen almost every other winter.
But how would you explain the incredibly cold winters of the late 70s? Where did the Polar Vortex disappear between 1983 until 2002?
You keep saying that about that period from 83 to 2002. You are very wrong. 1985 was incredibly cold and so was December 89. The PV was doing its thing all that time as well, which meant sitting over eastern North America lol. And people wonder why the record lows are so cold here. That is why.
Maybe for you, but I am not at all convinced we warm up as much as people keep claiming. Our local NOAA forecast doesn't show anything above avg even at 7 days out. Where is all this warmth. I full expect the models to back off all the warmth as well.
It's currently 58 and raining here and I don't see any effect on the weather on the east coast.
Lol you can't look at one day and get any trend out of that.
With that warm water off your coast, we have the lousy warm PDO to contend with. Funny that the recent global cool down during the few years of cold PDO we were actually warmer than the rest of the globe. Now the whole world gets warm again and we cool. I think eastern NA follows the opposite trend of the rest of the world. So, I now favor a massive global cooling that will make the PV very strong so hopefully it never breaks down like the southern hemisphere one. That would be a wonderful world.
The euro deterministic ten days shows no warmth whatsoever that is above average as this point.
And the 15 day euro ensemble shows a brief warm up and then right back down to around average again. Nothing at all but normal warm weather in May for two days and then average again. There is no sustained heat in the east. I really think the La Nina will barely happen this summer, and with the warm PDO we will have a cool summer.
I don't even bother with the GFS models or CFS anymore as they are just worthless if you ask me.
Last edited by tom77falcons; 05-15-2016 at 09:54 PM..
The skies you had in early May reminded me of cloudy anticyclonic spells in non-Mediterranean Europe in late fall or winter. Not something I'd associate with an ULL, much less with the month of May (even though featureless grey skies can happen under a low pressure or in spring and summer, they're just much less common). Cold fronts usually bring the most interesting skies, especially in spring when the altitude air is still cold while the low levels are warmed by the sun.
TBH you couldn't have chose a more awful time weatherwise to visit NYC or my area. The end of April and pretty much all of May have been well below avg temp wise with very little sun and lots of rain. Anyone visiting here would think the climate here was subarctic lol. The first ten days of May here were about 6F below average.
Oh and George I meant to say to you, would you mind not going on and on about impending cold in Europe, cause every time you do we in the east pay for it with weeks of below avg temps. Earlier this year you went on and on about the PV hitting right over England and lo and behold we got the darn thing right over us.
Leave Europe alone or I'll make special sacrifices to the druid gods to ruin your summer.
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