Spring 2016 thread (Northern Hemisphere) (versus, snowing, warm, averages)

[Cambium]

Clouds and rain keeping daytime cool. Looks like just a front dropping south with some chilly air north of it. Clouds and a LP along the boundary..


850mb temps arent that impressive but chilly below freezing New England, single digits (C) north of Philly..


Current Surface map. See the front? Watch where it goes and what the High does.





Tomorrows Surface map. High pressure moves over into Atlantic and the front stalls near NYC. Warm south of there, cool north. Storms riding along it. Then watch what happens.





Wednesday's surface map. Front pushes south more. North of DC clears out, clouds & showers over Virginia. I bet this day we will see it warmer in New England than VA and NC.

[muslim12]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Clouds and rain keeping daytime cool. Looks like just a front dropping south with some chilly air north of it. Clouds and a LP along the boundary..


850mb temps arent that impressive but chilly below freezing New England, single digits (C) north of Philly..


Current Surface map. See the front? Watch where it goes and what the High does.





Tomorrows Surface map. High pressure moves over into Atlantic and the front stalls near NYC. Warm south of there, cool north. Storms riding along it. Then watch what happens.





Wednesday's surface map. Front pushes south more. North of DC clears out, clouds & showers over Virginia. I bet this day we will see it warmer in New England than VA and NC.

Idk about that. Forecast high on Wednesday is in the upper 80s, possible 90 degree day and possible first 70 degree low all on that day. Its 71 right now at 9:09. Tonight's a warm night, we quickly broke the negative departure for April and are now 1 degree below average, we might, just might finish above.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by muslim12

Idk about that. Forecast high on Wednesday is in the upper 80s, possible 90 degree day .

90 with rain in April?

Richmond High forecast is 69. Hartford is 63. Ok.. looks like that wont be the case of a cooler VA vs New England. Warmth too strong?

[Infamous92]

A little concerned for Kansas and Oklahoma tomorrow, hope they're prepared. And I'm hoping we see a garden variety thunderstorm or two tomorrow.

[chicagogeorge]

Northshore Cook County getting action

https://twitter.com/MikeHamernik/sta...81207758749696

[chicagogeorge]

Another cell popped up in the western suburbs

https://twitter.com/WindyCityWxMan/s...84966752702465

[ral31]

Originally Posted by SouthernTiger099

Uh-oh.


It looks like tomorrow will be our first significant severe weather outbreak of the year.

I wonder if it will be raised to "high risk" tomorrow.

There hasn't been a high risk issued by SPC since June 3rd, 2014.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by muslim12

Idk about that. Forecast high on Wednesday is in the upper 80s, possible 90 degree day and possible first 70 degree low all on that day. .

I was curious about this... so I checked. Good info. They arent sure where the front will stop. If goes south enough no way your getting upper 80s. Not even mid 80s. Probably lucky to get past 70s IF it goes south enough. Big temp bust potential coming. Dont get mad at the forecasters. Lol

This time of yr these fronts are so weak by time they get south of Philly, I have my doubts it goes past the VA border there. We'll see

National Weather Service Text Product Display

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
930 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

A WEAKENING BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH
NEAR THE VIRGINIA STATE LINE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CONVECTION AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD
TOGETHER AS IT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER GIVEN
UNFAVORABLE NOCTURNAL TIMING/INCREASING BL CIN COUPLED WITH
INCREASINGLY LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW...EXPECT ANY ONGOING CONVECTION
TO BE SIMILAR WEAKENING. WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. OTHERWISE...DRY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S.

THE MAIN ISSUE DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA A COLD FRONT MAKES IT. TO START THE DAY...THE FRONT
WILL BE NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER AND MAY SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S. THIS...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S...THE AIR MASS SHOULD BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED IS WHERE THE SMALLEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE DUE TO THE
EXPECTED LOCATION OF THE FRONT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WILL ULTIMATELY HINGE ON WHERE THE FRONT IS LOCATED AND THAT IS
STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...IF THE MODELS TREND FURTHER NORTH
WITH THE FRONT...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE TOO HIGH. WIND SHEAR WILL
NOT BE THE GREATEST...BUT GIVEN THE DECENT INSTABILITY THAT
IS EXPECTED...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by alex985

Tomorrow 42 F is predicted as a high in Boston and 80 F in Philly!! Quite the contrast. Even as warm as 84 F in DC and as cold as 37 F in NH. Is this a backdoor cold front?

Originally Posted by nei

Polar Jet is dropping down, but no cold air dropping below. .

Front dropping south. Theres cold air with it hence the snowfall for some areas of New England AND your high temp. The big contrast will depends where the front is

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY DROP SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY ALLOWING COLD AIR TO CONTINUE TO BLEED SOUTHWARD. IN FACT TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS WILL ONLY RISE SEVERAL DEGREES FROM MORNING LOWS. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL AS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS TO TOTAL 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING

https://twitter.com/DanAmarante/stat...68127700426752

[Cambium]

Forecast max temps