Spring 2016 thread (Northern Hemisphere) (snow, warm, average, temperatures)

[chicagogeorge]

Originally Posted by BMI

I looked at extended forecast for Toronto, Chicago, and NYC.


Not looking good at all.


Not too many "nice" spring days coming up, plenty of rain and an arctic blast in early
April, one day Chi-town forecast high is only -5C, even in balmy NYC, high 3C / low -3C

Idk TWC doesn't have this Arcitc blast hanging around too long and the highs remain above freezing



I live 35 miles south of MDW. Notice at the end of the forecast we are 3-4C warmer. Not effected by easterly lake winds like the city itself.

[nei]

Completely cloudy this morning. Odd since it cleared late last afternoon, I assumed a drier air mass / high pressure had moved in. Very drab looking with nothing growing yet.

[ral31]

NWS SPC shows a large area of severe risk Wednesday from the Gulf coast of Louisiana/Texas stretching up to Iowa.




Forecast Discussion

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 270900
SPC AC 270900

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016

VALID 301200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
WARM SECTOR WILL MOISTEN OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY BENEATH
EWD EXPANDING EML WEDNESDAY /DAY 4/ WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
DOWNSTREAM FROM AN UPPER LOW FORECAST TO SETTLE OVER THE SWRN
STATES. MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST REGARDING SPEED OF A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMANATING WITHIN CUTOFF UPPER LOW THAT
WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS. GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS ARE
ABOUT 8 HOURS FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN ECMWF. LEE CYCLONE
INITIALLY OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH THE
UPPER MS VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH EJECTING WAVE. DESPITE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...PATTERN APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR A THREAT OF SEVERE
STORMS WITH THUNDERSTORM INITIATION POSSIBLE ALONG DRYLINE AND/OR
COLD FRONT-DRYLINE MERGER AS THE FRONT ADVANCES SEWD THROUGH THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AND MID-UPPER MS VALLEY.

A SEPARATE SEVERE THREAT AREA MAY EVOLVE FROM PORTIONS OF ERN TX
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SRN STREAM UPPER JET
INTERACTING WITH MOISTENING WARM SECTOR. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS
WARM ADVECTION REGIME ALONG BROAD LLJ AXIS.

SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE SERN STATES
THURSDAY /DAY 5/ BUT PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVOLUTION OF DAY 4 CONVECTION AND LINGERING
MODEL DIFFERENCES.

..DIAL.. 03/27/2016

[muslim12]

Originally Posted by chicagogeorge

Idk TWC doesn't have this Arcitc blast hanging around too long and the highs remain above freezing



I live 35 miles south of MDW. Notice at the end of the forecast we are 3-4C warmer. Not effected by easterly lake winds like the city itself.

Most likely will moderate colder. It's how all forecasts are for Arctic blasts. On the 3rd it shows 65/38 and then on the 4th it shows 58/39 for me. Below average on both dates but not representative of an Arcitc blast, highly doubt those will be the temp that playout. Something more likely would be something like 60/36 on the 3rd then 53/31 on the 4th.

[Cambium]

Big Spring Snows coming for Intermountain west this week. 1-2+ feet in the higher ups

[Cambium]

https://twitter.com/HenryMargusity


https://www.facebook.com/MeteoMadnes...type=3&theater

[nei]

What about today? Why is it gloomy this morning? Cambium, you got a cloud map for the region? Can't remember the link. Oh, found some

Color Enhanced Infrared Satellite - AerisWeather

Massachusetts Enhanced Weather Satellite Map - AccuWeather.com

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/vis-l.jpg

hmm Low pressure system off shore bring clouds + a shortwave nearby?

National Forecast Charts

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by nei

What about today? Why is it gloomy this morning? Cambium, you got a cloud map for the region? Can't remember the link. Oh, found some

Glad you found them, not near my PC now.

Nothing we havent seen before. Clouds. Big whoop. Boring. lol

What is Taunton saying about this morning?

[nei]

Originally Posted by Cambium

What is Taunton saying about this morning?

Don't quite follow their reasoning; nothing too detailed. Something about a switch to a southward flow leading to clearing?

10 AM UPDATE...
SIMILAR SETUP TO YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH WITH ONE SLIGHT DIFFERENCE
THAT MAY LEAD TO SKIES CLEARING A BIT FASTER THAN YESTERDAY. WITH
INVERTED RIDGING SLOWLY PULLING E...LOW LVL PRES GRADIENT ORIENTS
SUCH THAT FLOW TURNS TOWARD THE S BY ABOUT MID DAY. THIS WILL HELP
MIXING A BIT SINCE FLOW WILL NO LONGER BE DIRECTLY OFF OF THE
COOLER GULF OF MAINE WATERS. SO...HAVE TIMING OF SKY COVER
CLEARING MAINLY AFTER MID DAY...RATHER THAN MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS
EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY. ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL LIKELY UNDER ACHIEVE
IN THIS SCENARIO...STILL MAY SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS.
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DWPTS/SKIES WILL BE MADE.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by nei

Don't quite follow their reasoning; nothing too detailed. Something about a switch to a southward flow leading to clearing?
.

Sounds like a ridge is pointing towards the West as opposed to the usual north. I think. Inverted means a east-west orientation so as that pulls away, skies will clear with a more south flow instead of easterly flow. Actually interesting. Thanks.