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I've already wrote this fail of a summer off, and am now looking at long range models for the prospects of another cold and snowy winter (Tom, it looks like I'll be taunting you come December!)
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Consequences of the predicted SST anomaly pattern in the Pacific Ocean
During winter seasons, the sea surface temperature anomaly couplet in the northern Pacific Ocean generally has led to a persistent upper-level ridge of high pressure along the west coast of the US and Canada and an upper-level low in the north-central Pacific Ocean Рusually an atmospheric combination that promotes colder-than-normal weather around here by allowing for the transport of Arctic air from northern Canada into the northern US. Meanwhile, an El Ni̱o focused in the central Pacific Ocean often has been correlated with above-normal snowfall in the Northeast U.S. Рmost recently during the winters of 2002-2003 and 2009-2010. One of the possible reasons for this outcome is that warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean during wintertime tend to produce abundant moisture levels in the southern branch of the upper-level jet stream which is often a key player in Northeast U.S snowstorms.
Comparison with two snowy winters (2002-2003, 2009-2010)
Some rather amazing similarities exist between the JAMSTEC forecasted sea surface temperature anomalies for the upcoming winter season and the actual anomalies that took place during the snowy winters of 2002-2003 and 2009-2010. Not only do they both feature "centrally-based" El Niño’s in the tropical Pacific Ocean (indicated below by arrow), but they both have a noticeable SST couplet with a warm anomaly pattern tucked in near the Alaska coastline and a colder-than-normal region just to its southwest (circled area).
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What could change this preliminary snowy and cold winter outlook?
One way meteorologists track the strength of an El Niño is through an “oceanic Niño” index value. The latest 3-month running average of this index has risen from 0.2 in August/September/October of last year to 0.7 in March/April/May in this year. Generally, if this index rises above 2.0, the El Niño is considered to be in the “super strong” category. The last time a “super strong” El Niño actually took place was during 1997-1998, but there are some important differences between today's overall setup in the tropical Pacific Ocean and the situation back in the late 1990s. Specifically, there is a ring of warm water today surrounding much of the Australian continent and this usually has an inhibiting effect on the strength and longevity of an El Nino. If, however, a super strong El Niño were to develop by next winter across the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, then this could very well flood much of the country including the Northeast U.S. with warmer-than-normal weather conditions. While I do expect this El Niño to become fairly strong – perhaps in the 1.5–2.0 index value range – I don't think it’ll rise to “super strong” levels seen last in the 1997-1998 time period and I also believe it’ll be focused in the central part of the tropical Pacific Ocean by next winter.
Also it's been a cool first 6 months of 2015 for many from the Plains east
Poor Tommy.
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Originally Posted by chicagogeorge
I've already wrote this fail of a summer off, and am now looking at long range models for the prospects of another cold and snowy winter (Tom, it looks like I'll be taunting you come December!)
Saw lightning for the first time in months this morning, only one flash though.
1 flash??? Holy crap what a difference. There were multiple strikes and flashes around here. Looks like the line was more intense over CT then Long Island. Saw the flashes through the shades. Thunder was loud and constant.
I've already wrote this fail of a summer off, and am now looking at long range models for the prospects of another cold and snowy winter (Tom, it looks like I'll be taunting you come December!)
lol.. Yeah, July not looking pretty for you..Does that mean you start getting into you cold extreme mood now?
CFSV2 Temp departure projections for July & August. Says most of Lower 48 will end up below normal. New England with a warmer August.
At the 11 AM update it's 90 F with a 98 F heat index.
Have I mentioned how much I hate this climate?
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