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Yuck. A subpolar vortex will whirl around most of continental Europe, bringing more autumnlike conditions rather than springlike.
And it doesn't seem to be moving out anywhere soon. This is almost a week from here, and the system is already upon us.
Forecast for Prague as an example: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weath...R=0&NOREGION=1
(Normal early April highs should be around 11C)
Latest Euro12z on left has 50-55, GFS12z on right has 45-50.
It's not in NAM's range yet.
NWS blending the 2, Not sure why WU got it higher. What's supporting 60 up that far? Not saying it can't happen, just curious how they came about that number.
Another look at GFS Max temps Thursday.
So, weather underground push its forecast highs for the next two days to the mid to upper 40s. For Thursday: NWS 52°F, Wunderground still 59°F. Friday is roughly similar for both: NWS 64°F, 65°F wundrground. Might be a disagreement of timing of warm air moving in, or thinking the warm air mass pushing stronger? Ten day wunderground for next week show rather cool daytime temperatures, but mild above freezing nights. So mean may be close to normal. Forecast that far out is only a guide, so not going to think too deeply about it.
This morning feels raw, mid 30s, cloudy and breezy with a few snow flurries. As long as no polar vortex / airflow and there's sunshine, midday temperatures should be mild.
I made a graph of late winter, early spring temperatures for the Amherst CO-OP station (near me). Steady warm-up from the coldest point of the winter in mid February, then in the last two weeks it stalled. Average high should be in the low 50s now. Used a 7 day running mean, to smooth out day to day temperature fluctuations.
So, weather underground push its forecast highs for the next two days to the mid to upper 40s. For Thursday: NWS 52°F, Wunderground still 59°F. Friday is roughly similar for both: NWS 64°F, 65°F wundrground. Might be a disagreement of timing of warm air moving in, or thinking the warm air mass pushing stronger?
In NAM's range now but considered Long Range for it. Anyway, here's NAM's max temps for Thursday. Has 50s pushing up through NY but keeps Southern New England cooler.
I think everyone is going to love Wed-Thurs this week. Little clouds and warm. Friday clouds and showers with warmth.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nei
I made a graph of late winter, early spring temperatures for the Amherst CO-OP station (near me). Steady warm-up from the coldest point of the winter in mid February, then in the last two weeks it stalled. Average high should be in the low 50s now. Used a 7 day running mean, to smooth out day to day temperature fluctuations.
Yeah, interesting stall and even a dip. Time to catch up now? Up we go...but how fast?
Clipper on Tuesday maybe bringing snow
Active pattern continues and winter not done.
A clipper... A clipper this time of year? Nuts And cold enough to snow?
Tuesday morning Euro has it over Michigan. Snowy day for them.
By 2am Wednesday morning its directly over NYC. Snowing across CT. 1-3"
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium
Lots of Snow, Rain and Cold chances next 2 weeks! Saw the Euro print 1/4" liquid all snow for Danbury Tuesday night. GFS has nothing
NWS 2 days ago. Gotta love always going with Climo? Been burned soooo many times yet that's what we all love to fall back on.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
632 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015
FOR NOW...GOING WITH AN ALL RAIN FORECAST BASED ON CLIMO AND MODEL UNCERTAINTY.
Today...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1123 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
SYS CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL RACE TOWARDS THE
AREA WITH THE SFC LOW REACHING THE NYC LONGITUDE APPROXIMATELY 00Z
WED.
THIS TRACK COMBINED WITH THE THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT A COLD ENOUGH COLUMN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR SNOW.
TUESDAY NIGHT
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 00Z
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT ANY RAIN OR SNOW...WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. QPF TOTALS ARE GENERALLY ON THE LOW
END WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
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