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I am so psyched for some snowfall; this winter has been like a crossbreed of the winter of 2011-2012 and Last Winter in Indianapolis. I say this because the amount of snowfall has been abysmal when compared to a typical winter here and really is pitiful when compared to last winters record smashing total of 52.2 Inches from December through February 2013-2014, which isn't that much I know but it was enough to beat the 51 Inch record which had been unrivaled until last winter. The coldest it has been is -7 F and while that is brutal enough for bitter cold, last winter's extreme was -15 F. As of Today, just 8.5 Inches of Snowfall has been tallied since the beginning of the 2014-2015 snow season, IIRC, the winter of 2011-2012 snowfall total was nearly Identical to what Indianapolis has seen so far this winter as of yet. So this winter so far really has been the worst of both worlds, at least for the Indianapolis area and the reason is self explanatory, negative single digit temperatures is still too cold for me and I agree with lots of snowbirds/snow-lovers on here, if its cold outside, it might as well snow, let it snow let it snow. Rant Over.
That's interesting. The weekend was 41/18F and 39/25F at O'Hare with only 0.01" of precipitation, and that was somehow able to melt 8" of snow (14" morning of 7th to 6" two days later)?
That's interesting. The weekend was 41/18F and 39/25F at O'Hare with only 0.01" of precipitation, and that was somehow able to melt 8" of snow (14" morning of 7th to 6" two days later)?
Yeah, it was actually explained in Skilling's forecast that being February, the sun is at a higher angle. We had multiple hours of sunshine this weekend which was caused the melt.
Quote:
Monday’s highs of 27 at O’Hare, 31 at Midway and 29 at the lakefront, proved a bit of a reality-check after winter weary Chicagoan’s basked in the area’s mildest weekend temps in 6 weeks. A set max/min temps equaling or exceeding Saturday’s 41 and 18 and Sunday’s 39 and 25 hadn’t occurred here since Dec. 27th and 28th. The higher temps combined with Saturday’s higher-angle and, therefore, stronger February sunlight, melted 10″ of the 17″ of snow which had been measured in the wake of this area’s 2015 blizzard early last week.
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
159 AM EST WED FEB 11 2015
VALID 12Z SAT FEB 14 2015 - 12Z WED FEB 18 2015
...OVERVIEW...
DEEP TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING A SERIES OF ARCTIC
AIRMASS INTRUSIONS INTO THE LOWER 48. THE SPREAD OF THIS DRY
ARCTIC AIRMASS ALONG AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE WILL PRODUCE A
"ROLLER-COASTER" MEDIUM RANGE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH LARGE
DAY-TO DAY SWINGS FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GULF COAST---WITH THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST LOCKED INTO THE ARCTIC CHILL BETWEEN DAY
3 AND AT LEAST DAY 6.
WEST OF THE DIVIDE...A RATHER MILD AND DRY PATTERN IS ESTABLISHED
BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE---THAT SLOWLY MIGRATES INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC BY THE END OF THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE IS PROJECTED TO PULL A SEGMENT OF THE COLDER...CANADIAN
AIRMASS ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND CREATE SOME SENSIBLE
WEATHER CHANGES FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...GREAT BASIN AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS.
...UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...
THE 'RE-POSITIONING' OF THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN
RIDGE---ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND ALONG 130W
LONGITUDE---REMAINS THE FORECAST CHALLENGE. THE 10/12Z FORECAST
CYCLE GUIDANCE AGREED IN PRINCIPLE WITH A SOUTHWARD-MOVING
SHORTWAVE REACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES
AROUND DAY 5---AND SHIFTING THE RIDGE AXIS WESTWARD INTO THE
130W-140W LONGITUDE REGION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. AND
ALTHOUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE GLOBAL GUIDANCE HAS COME TO THIS
CONCLUSION---THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL WAVE ENERGY DIGGING
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES---REMAINS A QUESTION MARK. THE DETAILS
OF THIS SCENARIO---ALONG WITH A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN INVOF 35N
140W---ACROSS THE WEST HAVE RATHER LARGE IMPACTS DOWNSTREAM. IN
PARTICULAR...THE HIGH PLAINS... SOUTHERN PLAINS... MID-MS VALLEY
AND SOUTHEAST...WHERE TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT (P-TYPE CHALLENGE).
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH---A REMNANT CUTOFF MID-LEVEL SYSTEM
AND ITS MOISTURE INVOF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY
TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD---GENERATING A POSSIBLE MID-LEVEL
OVER-RUNNING SCENARIO DOWNSTREAM---ANYWHERE FROM CENTRAL MONTANA
TO THE OZARKS AS THE DIGGING TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO CARVE OUT A POCKET
OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS. THE RELATIVE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF EJECTING ENERGY ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND UPPER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY---WILL HAVE RAMIFICATIONS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE IT MAY "OVER-RUN" THE MODIFIED-ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE---EAST OF THE DIVIDE.
AFTER DAY 4...(16/00Z)...THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SEEMED LESS
'AGREEABLE' ALOFT WITH THE EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL ENERGY MIGRATING
INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH---AS THE VIGOROUS 500MB WAVE
EXITS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. ITS NOT THAT A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
NOT PREVAIL BETWEEN THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND THE PIEDMONT...BUT ITS
WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVES THAT
FOLLOW---DETERMINING THE TIMING...SEQUENCE AND TRAJECTORY WHEREBY
MORE CANADIAN ARCTIC AIR CAN SPILL INTO THE LOWER 48. AT THE
MOMENT...THE TRAJECTORIES FAVOR THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST---BUT THE ARCTIC AIRMASS LOSES ITS GRIP RATHER QUICKLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE A DISTINCT REGION OF
SEPARATION IN THE PLAINS---BETWEEN ARCTIC AIR AND A DOWNSLOPE
MOUNTAIN AIRMASS AND PREVAILING MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES. TO
COMPLICATE MATTERS...THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IS SHALLOW ENOUGH IN THE
GULF COAST---FOR A RETURN FLOW IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO
RAPIDLY EMERGE---ALLOWING FOR A QUICK MODERATION OF THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARKS---AND A
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST GRADIENT-LEVEL FLOW (925 MB LEVEL) TO BEGIN
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY. WITH AN AMPLIFYING
TROUGH IN THE GREAT BASIN BECOMING MORE THAN JUST A
POSSIBILITY...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAM ORIGINATING INVOF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO START MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS---AND INTO THE COLD
ARCTIC AIRMASS PROJECTED AHEAD OF IT.
...MODEL PREFERENCES...
A CONSENSUS FORECAST LOOKS SOLID UNTIL 16/00Z...WITH THE DEPTH AND
TRAJECTORY OF THE 'WELL-ADVERTISED' ARCTIC INTRUSION AND THE
TRACK/DEPTH OF A SURFACE WAVE MIGRATING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE DEEP 500MB WAVE SOLUTION OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND---LESS "IN SYNCH"---BUT FROM A SYNOPTIC-SCALE
PERSPECTIVE...VERY WELL REPRESENTATIVE OF THE BROAD-SCALE
MID-LEVEL WINDS AND DYNAMICS THAT WILL SURGE THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH AMERICA.
FOR LATE DAY 5 TO DAY 7...THOUGHT AN EQUALLY-WEIGHTED 10/12Z
ECENS...NAEFS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN COMBO WILL COVER THE
WESTWARD-MOVING UPPER RIDGE...AND AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THERE WAS JUST TOO MUCH SPREAD WITH
THE LOCALIZED DETAIL IN THE WEST...LITTLE TIMING CONTINUITY ALONG
THE US/CANADIAN BORDER-WESTERN ONTARIO AFTER DAY 5 WITH THE
LATITUDE OF LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE ENERGY...AND WHAT SEEMS TO BE A
"FLIP-FLOPPING" NATURE OF THE LOW/HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ALONG
THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN USA...TO DECLARE---ONE
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION IS BETTER THAN ANOTHER. THE GFS-ECMWF
COMBINATION HAS BEEN FAVORED BY WPC FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND THE 9/12Z
GFS-ECMWF COMBINATION WAS FAVORED IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS THE
DETAILS EMERGE---OF A NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING SURFACE CYCLONE MOVING
ATOP THE ARCTIC AIRMASS BOUNDARY.
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
DAY 3 TO DAY 5...THE SCENARIO FOR BITTER COLD AND OCCASIONALLY
GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST
REMAINS A FEATURE OF THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST...WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE UPSLOPE-FAVORED
REGIONS OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND HEAVY SNOW POSSIBILITIES FOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
UPSLOPE SNOWS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...AND ORGANIZED OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION SURGES ACROSS
THE OZARKS...MID-MS VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FOR DAYS
5-7.
It's now officially colder than last year even including the warm December this year. WOW!
Average Winter Temp: (Dec 1 - Feb 28)
Islip 6th Coldest on record
Bridgeport 13th Coldest on record
Windsor Locks 24th coldest on record
Boston 26th Coldest on record
Still got 18 days left this year
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