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Is that a cut-off low in the Canadian Plains? I like your diagram with the 1,2,3. Forecast discussion form Gray, ME for later this week:
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME SCATTERED PRECIP
IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BY THURSDAY...00Z MODEL SUITE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
OUR REGION. THIS INCREASES POPS AND WILL MOVE INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DURING THIS PACKAGE UPDATE.
ON FRIDAY...A SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. LATEST
EURO MODEL RUN DEEPENS THIS LOW RAPIDLY AS IT PASSES TO OUR EAST.
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM...HOWEVER SWELLS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...LEADING TO ENHANCED RIP RISK.
So a stalled stationary front, the mid-Atlantic coastal (tropical?) storm misses us
New Models are proving the timing of the trough and cold front is the key to forecasting this potential tropical system. I do believe it will be named in a few days.
GFS now has it off Long Island on July 5th which means outdoor plans not the best for the 4th from NYC metro into MA.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nei
Is that a cut-off low in the Canadian Plains? I like your diagram with the 1,2,3. us
Thanks. Nope, that's not a cut-off low. A Cut-Off low is when it breaks apart from the Jet Stream. That's an Upper Level Low which is still attached to the Polar Jet.
New Models are proving the timing of the trough and cold front is the key to forecasting this potential tropical system. I do believe it will be named in a few days.
GFS now has it off Long Island on July 5th which means outdoor plans not the best for the 4th from NYC metro into MA.
Thanks. Nope, that's not a cut-off low. A Cut-Off low is when it breaks apart from the Jet Stream. That's an Upper Level Low which is still attached to the Polar Jet.
How likely is it for the cold front to "pull" the Low westward and spoil the holiday weekend weather?
Ahh the "pull" scenario. Something I doubt I'll ever see again. A front would push a storm or a storm would get absorbed by a front or a storm would ride along the front... Only a trough can catch and pull but timing for that has to be incredible.(ieSandy).
If High pressure in Atlantic moves west, chances are better for a wet holiday and a closer track to coast. That High won't move west. So only the timing of the front matters.
If the front goes even slower then it can stay closer to coast too.
Just imagine if the front passed on Thursday like it once was projected too. A front would be off the coast and the storm down south probably would of come up the coastal plain.
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