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I think that there is a difference in his stance on man made global warming and his forecasting hot or cold patterns. Yes, he thinks that co2 has little or no influence on climate and weather patterns (which I don't agree with, at least on long term scales), and yes, he is right wing (how many left wing media/meteo types hype heat waves and hurricane linking them to MMGW? I can name a whole bunch) but goes out of his way to point out how warm and cold spells in different regions have historical analogs based on SST's.
Like this:
Jan 1977 and this January. Alaska had huge ridge and both Alaska and the Arctic was warmer than this January. Result was the same. Cold (very) in the eastern US.
Here is what Bastardi stated this morning for February:
Quote:
Last 4 runs of CFSV2 look TOO COLD for Feb to me. We have it cold, but not this severe
And here is what the CSFv2 has:
Btw, here is a cool satellite shot of southern Lake Michigan with a snow plume steady streaming into Northwest Indiana taken on Jan 24
Last edited by chicagogeorge; 01-26-2014 at 07:12 AM..
Jan 1977 and this January. Alaska had huge ridge and both Alaska and the Arctic was warmer than this January. Result was the same. Cold (very) in the eastern US.
The problem with those connections it's easy to find connections that's not there. It's not that hard to find two years with a similar winter pattern by chance if the record is long enough. Not saying there isn't a connection but I'm rather skeptical.
I would hope that people would keep this quote of his in mind when considering whether or not he has a cold bias. Every single one of his blogs talks about nothing but the extreme cold we have been experiencing. He doesn't say a peep about the record warmth everywhere else in the world including CA, Europe, the whole western US and Alaska. If he mentions them at all it is just in passing, or about how any day now they are going to get cold. Mostly he just focuses on the cold east. And then his post from Sat 25 Jan has this in it:
He's deliberately trying to mislead, in the recent days I've checked, the northern hemisphere has been running above avearage.
The problem with those connections it's easy to find connections that's not there. It's not that hard to find two years with a similar winter pattern by chance if the record is long enough. Not saying there isn't a connection but I'm rather skeptical
There are many factors that influence climate patterns but you can't argue that SST's don't play a crucial role in climate. I mean if we have La Nina conditions usually, winter shape up along these lines in the US
and if we have El Nino conditions, then they tend to look like this
Yes, blocking can trump or negate oceanic patterns at times, but there are general trends that can be studies through the use of analogs.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nei
He's deliberately trying to mislead, in the recent days I've checked, the northern hemisphere has been running above avearage.
Where exactly has he stated other wise? Only thing I have seen him post is this for North America, which CONUS has been running over 1.2C below normal since the start of winter. How is this misleading?
Almost the entire Northeast is snow covered, except for small sections of coastal Maine and southern sections of the Delmarva. Not something you see often. I'm just enjoying it while it lasts.
Last I heard that system was supposed to miss us to the north, but looking at the radar, I'm not so sure. We might get a little after all. Hopefully.
Yup, the system itself will stay to the north of us and yes there is more moisture than even the short term models picked up on. It's stronger than forecast the disturbance moving through. I even thought the Apps would break it apart. We'll see. Snow moving into NYC within the hour.
Hockey game at Yankee stadium will be snowed on but that wont stop them.
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