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Yep. Of course this does not play well with the cold winter fantasies.
It will turn cooler I do think...It's just based on the 500 mb pattern and zonal flow, I don't think it will last:
Look at the differecen between the coming days and a week from today;
Now a week away:
In terms of long term climatological numbers, as the sun sinks lower in the sky those numbers should (slowly) be going down, not up. It will get cold today, Sun, maybe Monday in some areas....but that zonal flow will just not let it last I think. I guess we'll find out.
This is the winter look in my opinion. Of course things dont stay exact forever and of course the entire country is never under a ridge or a trough but I believe this will be the "common" theme for winter.
Above Normal temps where the Ridge setsup... Below normal for the East. (including southeast)
Move the ridge about 500 miles to the east and north and you may have something. There will be undoubtedly minor cold outbreaks in New England, and some cold episodes in the Southeast, but I think that a great majority of the country will remain ABOVE NORMAL. Remember your "Atmospheric Memory Theory"? It could work for the warm ridge that has been in place for 3 years now as well. Well, in 60 days or so, we will know where it's going and I'm betting on the above normal inertia of the atmosphere.
Move the ridge about 500 miles to the east and north and you may have something. There will be undoubtedly minor cold outbreaks in New England, and some cold episodes in the Southeast, but I think that a great majority of the country will remain ABOVE NORMAL. Remember your "Atmospheric Memory Theory"? It could work for the warm ridge that has been in place for 3 years now as well. Well, in 60 days or so, we will know where it's going and I'm betting on the above normal inertia of the atmosphere.
...and that's my forecast and my thinking as well: Yes there will be some cool (not cold though) outbreaks heare and there, but over all the pattern seems to just be normal.
Keep in mind that "normal" means the typical up/down of temps we see in the United States with cool and warm shots. THis also means that we just can't look at the edges of the mainland and use them as to what the pattern will do. So while it will be cold in some spots...it will be hot and sunny on others. I think its fair to say there is more than one type of fall weather in the USA:
Last edited by wavehunter007; 11-24-2012 at 07:15 AM..
It will turn cooler I do think...It's just based on the 500 mb pattern and zonal flow, I don't think it will last:
Look at the differecen between the coming days and a week from today;
Now a week away:
In terms of long term climatological numbers, as the sun sinks lower in the sky those numbers should (slowly) be going down, not up. It will get cold today, Sun, maybe Monday in some areas....but that zonal flow will just not let it last I think. I guess we'll find out.
The areas that have been trumpeted as cold, such as northern Montana, Duluth and the lake effect snow areas are SUPPOSED to be cold, BUT so are an awful lot of OTHER areas, and they just are not cold at all.
Yes, we are entering "the point of no return" as the Phantom sings. I see yet another above normal winter, with small pockets of below normal in the NE and SE.
Truly excellent weather for cross-country running (what I have just been doing) here this morning: 5 degrees C, fog, drizzle, gloom, and a course largely consisting of puddles, mud, slippery fallen leaves and tree branches blown off in the wind the other night. You can keep your San Diegos and your Canary Islands, seriously...
Ha. A bit chilly for my ideal. When I use to run outside I'd usually stop around the end of November and we'd have some 5°C to deal with in the afternoon, but not much.
...and that's my forecast and my thinking as well: Yes there will be some cool (not cold though) outbreaks heare and there, but over all the pattern seems to just be normal.
I would be shocked if the overall winter temperatures for the U.S. came in at anything less than just normal.
Quote:
Keep in mind that "normal" means the typical up/down of temps we see in the United States with cool and warm shots. THis also means that we just can't look at the edges of the mainland and use them as to what the pattern will do. So while it will be cold in some spots...it will be hot and sunny on others. I think its fair to say there is more than one type of fall weather in the USA:
West Palm Beach, Fl. High of 75°
Believe it or not, we will approach that today with a predicted high of 65-68° F.
Believe it or not, we will approach that today with a predicted high of 65-68° F.
Yea, but you're in Colorado. Any weather is possible with the variability. Normal high for today in Denver is 50°F, but 63°F is one standard deviation above average. Interestingly, yours display a much higher deviation than your lows. Odd. For me, the lows are a bit more variable.
Yea, but you're in Colorado. Any weather is possible with the variability. Normal high for today in Denver is 50°F, but 63°F is one standard deviation above average. Interestingly, yours display a much higher deviation than your lows. Odd. For me, the lows are a bit more variable.
Both Wunderground and Accuweather report normal highs for Ft. Collins to be around 45° F. for this time of year. Denver is a little warmer. The avg. low is 22°, and we hit 28° last night. I'm right up against the mountains, so variability can be much the norm. Temperatures can drop 50 degrees in just a few hours, but can parenthetically rise that much when the winds blow west down from the mountains. I'm more than ready for a pattern change, can you tell?
Snow is entering Western MA as the radar is confirmed by the station there reporting light snow.
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