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Old 11-05-2020, 12:29 AM
 
Location: Austin, Texas
1,985 posts, read 3,320,166 times
Reputation: 1705

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Quote:
Originally Posted by ParaguaneroSwag View Post
Before a true blue shift happens, Fort Worth will have to be on board before you can even begin to factor Hispanics in south Texas.
This x100. Even if 2016 margins held in South Texas, Biden would come up short a few points. Urban counties needed Beto 2018 margins to go with that turnout, but fell slightly short. You can't blame South Texas before you blame the major metros, which are going to have to do the bulk of the heavy lifting in any scenario that Texas turns blue. Especially when politics are increasingly polarized along urban/rural lines.
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Old 11-05-2020, 01:14 AM
 
109 posts, read 71,220 times
Reputation: 124
Quote:
Originally Posted by SanJac View Post
You are spot on. The BIG story is how many Hispanics voted for Trump. The National media tried to isolate the Cuban vote in Miami as not translating to other Latino populations.

In spite of all the immigration rhetoric it is stunning how Hispanics voted for Trump in Texas. It really must be a regional thing. Latinos in Arizona and California did not help Trump at all.

My hypothesis is Hispanics in Texas have taken on Texas “Individualism.” They want a chance at the American dream and they don’t want politicians stripping them of their 2nd amendment rights. They are likely more socially conservative on religious freedoms than Arizonians or Californians as well.

Maybe just maybe the media will stop treating the Latino and Black communities as some monolithic voting block that does everything in unison. That should be the lesson for Democrats from this election.
Also many if not most Hispanics especially in South Texas don't have any relation to and try to disassociate themselves from immigrants as much as they can. I see this as the main difference from Arizona and California.
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Old 11-05-2020, 08:06 AM
 
Location: Washington D.C. By way of Texas
20,516 posts, read 33,561,459 times
Reputation: 12157
Quote:
Originally Posted by ParaguaneroSwag View Post
Brazorias County is also beginning to shift blue (I know weird) but most of this is closer to Houston. Galveston remained pretty much as is and Montgomery barely shifters. Houston as a whole shifted slightly more blue than DFW unless final results change it. But they’re close.
Brazoria is still several cycles from turning blue but I wouldn’t count out competitive races starting in 2024. It’s just not where Collin County is.
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Old 11-05-2020, 08:11 AM
 
Location: Houston/Austin, TX
9,902 posts, read 6,612,278 times
Reputation: 6420
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spade View Post
Brazoria is still several cycles from turning blue but I wouldn’t count out competitive races starting in 2024. It’s just not where Collin County is.
It’s moving rather rapidly that way. It was so blood red previously that of course it’s still ways to go.
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Old 11-05-2020, 08:17 AM
 
Location: Houston, TX
8,353 posts, read 5,510,571 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spade View Post
Brazoria is still several cycles from turning blue but I wouldn’t count out competitive races starting in 2024. It’s just not where Collin County is.
Collin will go blue before Brazoria.
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Old 11-05-2020, 10:01 AM
 
Location: OC
12,845 posts, read 9,583,014 times
Reputation: 10631
Quote:
Originally Posted by As Above So Below... View Post
Collin will go blue before Brazoria.
May take a while then. Trump won that pretty handily.

All of the votes haven't been counted. Tarrant could go to Biden,
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Old 11-05-2020, 10:01 AM
 
577 posts, read 457,786 times
Reputation: 539
Quote:
Originally Posted by As Above So Below... View Post
Collin went from 38.9% for Hillary to 46.5% for Biden.

Tarrant went from 43.1% to 49.1%

Denton went from 37.1% to 45.1%

Fort Bend went from 51.4% to 55.4%.

Dallas went from 60.7% to 64.9%

Harris went from 53.9% to 55.8%

Montgomery went from 22.4% to 27.4%

Travis went from 65.7% to 71.4%

Hays went from 46.0% to 54.4%

Williamson went from 41.5% to 49.5%

The biggest shifts from right to left were in DFW and Austin as opposed to Houston.

The biggest reason Texas didnt move closer to the center was really because of Hispanics in South Texas whom Trump did very well with.
Thanks for this helpful information! Could you kindly tell me what your source was? I just wanted to potentially look at some of the other counties in the state.
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Old 11-05-2020, 10:17 AM
 
Location: Houston, TX
8,353 posts, read 5,510,571 times
Reputation: 12304
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaylord_Focker View Post
May take a while then. Trump won that pretty handily.

All of the votes haven't been counted. Tarrant could go to Biden,
I just said it would go blue before Brazoria. The gap in Brazoria was 18%, in Collin it was less than 5%.
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Old 11-05-2020, 10:22 AM
 
Location: Houston, TX
8,353 posts, read 5,510,571 times
Reputation: 12304
Quote:
Originally Posted by DPatel304 View Post
Thanks for this helpful information! Could you kindly tell me what your source was? I just wanted to potentially look at some of the other counties in the state.
New York Times.
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Old 11-05-2020, 10:25 AM
 
Location: Houston/Austin, TX
9,902 posts, read 6,612,278 times
Reputation: 6420
Quote:
Originally Posted by DPatel304 View Post
Thanks for this helpful information! Could you kindly tell me what your source was? I just wanted to potentially look at some of the other counties in the state.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...lts-texas.html

You can go county by county here. DFW went democrat as a metro for the first time as well as Houston.
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