Dallas County remains only blue county in DFW, Austin gained 2 suburban counties (Houston: moving, metro)

[ParaguaneroSwag]

Originally Posted by King_Henry

Why would anyone want Texas to go blue? Texas overall has terrible and extreme weather, not much natural beauty, and not much established history. It is a largely transplant state. Most came here because of business relocation or personal relocation due to the lower taxes and cost of living. Property taxes and cost of living are steadily increasing. Why on earth would anyone want to elect Democrats who would increase taxes more to pay for their social programs?

If Democrats take over this state, I might as well move back to Northern Virginia. Having liberal politicians and policies defeats the whole purpose for most people to live here. I would say the same for all the Californians moving here. California is a beautiful state with overall great weather. Why not move back there if the cost difference is not very great? You would be crazy to stay in a high tax, high cost of living Texas.

I don't want Texas to be solid blue, I want it a solid battleground, which is where we are headed.

[As Above So Below...]

Originally Posted by ParaguaneroSwag

I don't want Texas to be solid blue, I want it a solid battleground, which is where we are headed.

This. I dont want California or Illinois politically, Id be happy with Wisconsin or Minnesota.

[ParaguaneroSwag]

So, I just crunched the numbers for last election and compared them to the so far results of this election. Disclaimer: This isn't counting third party voters. Only democratic-republican ratios. Percentages looked similar for 3rd party voters, however.

HOU 2016: 49.5% Democratic
HOU 2020: 53.5% Democratic (still pending final results)

DFW 2016: 46.7% Democratic
DFW 2020: 50.6% Democratic (still pending final results)

Supposing results don't change much, both metros voted Democratic more than Republican for the first time. Both metros saw extraordinarily large voter turnouts as opposed to the last election.

Houston saw a 4 point shift in the blue-red ratio, DFW a 3.9 point shift. So both are shifting about the same. The reason DFW's counties saw a higher amount of shifts is because they are much smaller. Harris County and Fort Bend County alone amount for such a high population, that if you count them individually, it'll appear higher. Both are shifting about equally.

Once final results are out, I'll post it in a new thread and also add Austin and San Antonio metros.

[Gaylord_Focker]

Biden did better in Travis County than he did on the border counties. I think that's pretty unusual.

[Spade]

Trump did well in the Rio Grande Valley. Very surprising. But yes, this is all about the Texas suburbs. It’s still blood red in many of the suburban county. This maybe the last presidential election cycle Tarrant will go red. It’s where Dallas County was in 2004. Collin is also trending light red to purplish. But until the Democrats make inroads in the suburbs, they will continue to not win the state.

[ParaguaneroSwag]

Originally Posted by Spade

Trump did well in the Rio Grande Valley. Very surprising. But yes, this is all about the Texas suburbs. It’s still blood red in many of the suburban county. This maybe the last presidential election cycle Tarrant will go red. It’s where Dallas County was in 2004. Collin is also trending light red to purplish. But until the Democrats make inroads in the suburbs, they will continue to not win the state.

Yeah. South Texas definitely wasn’t the lone difference maker. The hispanic turn out affects HOU and DFW just as much as they affect RGV.

[ParaguaneroSwag]

Originally Posted by Spade

Trump did well in the Rio Grande Valley. Very surprising. But yes, this is all about the Texas suburbs. It’s still blood red in many of the suburban county. This maybe the last presidential election cycle Tarrant will go red. It’s where Dallas County was in 2004. Collin is also trending light red to purplish. But until the Democrats make inroads in the suburbs, they will continue to not win the state.

both HOU and DFW metros Voted democratic as a whole for the first time though.

[Spade]

Originally Posted by ParaguaneroSwag

both HOU and DFW metros Voted democratic as a whole for the first time though.

For Houston metro, that is because Harris and Ft Bend continues to become more blue. The rest still holds serve with being staunchly red. For DFW, Tarrant County and Collin County are the main reasons along with Dallas County also becoming more blue. A cycle of a Democrat getting 70% in Dallas County could have happen in 2024. The rest are also still solidly red but Denton could be what Collin County was in 2024. If the four largest counties in DFW becomes blue one day, Texas will be very competitive.

[ParaguaneroSwag]

Originally Posted by Spade

For Houston metro, that is because Harris and Ft Bend continues to become more blue. The rest still holds serve with being staunchly red. For DFW, Tarrant County and Collin County are the main reasons along with Dallas County also becoming more blue. A cycle of a Democrat getting 70% in Dallas County could have happen in 2024. The rest are also still solidly red but Denton could be what Collin County was in 2024. If the four largest counties in DFW becomes blue one day, Texas will be very competitive.

Brazorias County is also beginning to shift blue (I know weird) but most of this is closer to Houston. Galveston remained pretty much as is and Montgomery barely shifters. Houston as a whole shifted slightly more blue than DFW unless final results change it. But they’re close.

[SanJac]

Originally Posted by As Above So Below...

Youre surprisingly passionate about something that can be statistically shown. Almost like you opened this thread to highlight differences instead of looking at the details.

And there wasnt low turn out in South Texas relative to 2016. Trump was just able to sway a lot of Hispanics.

You are spot on. The BIG story is how many Hispanics voted for Trump. The National media tried to isolate the Cuban vote in Miami as not translating to other Latino populations.

In spite of all the immigration rhetoric it is stunning how Hispanics voted for Trump in Texas. It really must be a regional thing. Latinos in Arizona and California did not help Trump at all.

My hypothesis is Hispanics in Texas have taken on Texas “Individualism.” They want a chance at the American dream and they don’t want politicians stripping them of their 2nd amendment rights. They are likely more socially conservative on religious freedoms than Arizonians or Californians as well.

Maybe just maybe the media will stop treating the Latino and Black communities as some monolithic voting block that does everything in unison. That should be the lesson for Democrats from this election.